wukan wrote:Ericsson wrote:Second half begins today.
What are the projections
It's been a weak quarter to June(Mpesa is doing a promotion-transactions must have really slumped). I expect a continuation of the same for the second half. Rate cap review is not happening this year so the credit crunch will continue.
The only NSE bullish signal is if Trump pursues weak dollar policies. So far the trade/tariff wars have not worked to bring back manufacturing to MAGA. Weak dollar is much easier to implement before the mid-term elections. Dollar index is stuck around 95 so watch on that.
If that doesn't happen then watch NSE plunge below 3000
Bringing manufacturing back to the USA (from China) is not going to be easy nor will it be immediate. I have to say Trump is doing what many US presidents were afraid of doing. Perhaps the "mad antics" of Trump will only be appreciated after many years.
In Kenya, we need a Trump-like approach to many aspects e.g. manufacturing. I look at our supermarket shelves and feel like crying.
We need to reduce the amount/value of imports that we can manufacture cost effectively... We need to reduce the level of corruption and costs it takes to bring goods to market.
We need to train more Kenyans to do jobs that have been outsourced including maintaining the railway and roads let alone building infrastructure.
We need to find more ways to trade with our neighbors. Not an easy task but we need to collaborate with the Ugandans, Rwandans and even Tanzanians to "Make It In East Africa"...
China is not our friend. SA is xenophobic and only wants to export to us. Even the Middle East is exporting non-oil goods to us while hardly taking in our exports except vegetables/fruits. India looks out for itself. USA has MAGA. EU only wants our natural resources and what it cannot grow.
I am not saying we should close off our economy but we need to make it more profitable to be a manufacturer so more Kenyans invest in factories.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett