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ARM Cement FY 2017 disaster - 6.5bn loss
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VituVingiSana
#61 Posted : Monday, June 04, 2018 3:33:03 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Demand is back at 2.50 [not heavy at those levels]. Offers have also dried up.
Heavy demand is at 1-1.50 according to my broker.


The share help up decently despite the open valves.

Open - 2.70
Close - 2.95

High - 3.00
Low - 2.45

Volume 1.2m

Bulls and bears are still pushing and shoving, none is a clear winner.

This could pay off big if PHP can find a Strategic Investor who will pay 20+ [NAV/share] as NEW money.
New money reduces debt + gives working capital to ARM.
Of course, there's always the option of cutting a deal with CDC to buy them out first!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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the deal
#62 Posted : Monday, June 04, 2018 4:01:52 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
muganda wrote:


In full for FY 2017



Assets could be massively overstated or have become obsolute...Next thing is asset write offs...Cash flow statement says it all... Valuing this company using NAV/Share is misleading... CDC got played... They must now retreat with tails between legs smile
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, June 04, 2018 4:05 PM | Reason: Not specified
VyaBureSiachi
#63 Posted : Monday, June 04, 2018 4:07:22 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 2/27/2018
Posts: 59
Location: Cambrian Dc
VituVingiSana wrote:
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Demand is back at 2.50 [not heavy at those levels]. Offers have also dried up.
Heavy demand is at 1-1.50 according to my broker.


The share help up decently despite the open valves.

Open - 2.70
Close - 2.95

High - 3.00
Low - 2.45

Volume 1.2m

Bulls and bears are still pushing and shoving, none is a clear winner.

This could pay off big if PHP can find a Strategic Investor who will pay 20+ [NAV/share] as NEW money.
New money reduces debt + gives working capital to ARM.
Of course, there's always the option of cutting a deal with CDC to buy them out first!

Only lafarge is left at the table. Hao wengine walitoroka after looking at the books.
If the radiance of a thousand suns were to burst at once into the sky that would be like the splendour of the mighty one.
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the deal
#64 Posted : Monday, June 04, 2018 4:33:42 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
VyaBureSiachi wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Demand is back at 2.50 [not heavy at those levels]. Offers have also dried up.
Heavy demand is at 1-1.50 according to my broker.


The share help up decently despite the open valves.

Open - 2.70
Close - 2.95

High - 3.00
Low - 2.45

Volume 1.2m

Bulls and bears are still pushing and shoving, none is a clear winner.

This could pay off big if PHP can find a Strategic Investor who will pay 20+ [NAV/share] as NEW money.
New money reduces debt + gives working capital to ARM.
Of course, there's always the option of cutting a deal with CDC to buy them out first!

Only lafarge is left at the table. Hao wengine walitoroka after looking at the books.


What's the NAV minus the Tz factories?
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VituVingiSana
#65 Posted : Monday, June 04, 2018 6:36:46 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
Have the auditors flagged anything but the current ratio?
The assets have a lower value in a fire sale situation so ARM needs to sell this as a whole.
I wonder what the breakdown is in losses Kenya vs TZ.

KK was also losing money in TZ. Ohana said the atmosphere was toxic. KE firms aren’t liked.
Perhaps ARM needs to sell the biz. Dangote has a factory down south. He should buy ATM TZ in the north!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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sparkly
#66 Posted : Monday, June 04, 2018 6:47:34 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Have the auditors flagged anything but the current ratio?
The assets have a lower value in a fire sale situation so ARM needs to sell this as a whole.
I wonder what the breakdown is in losses Kenya vs TZ.

KK was also losing money in TZ. Ohana said the atmosphere was toxic. KE firms aren’t liked.
Perhaps ARM needs to sell the biz. Dangote has a factory down south. He should buy ATM TZ in the north!


ARM is very economical with their results. I would love to see their gross margins, operating margins and net margins. I would also have loved to see their segmental reports. Bure kabisa
Life is short. Live passionately.
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RIEK01
#67 Posted : Monday, June 04, 2018 7:02:57 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 2/8/2018
Posts: 73
Good people, stop wasting time over analysing a dead horse. For those with holdings, look for a exit or write off the investment.
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VituVingiSana
#68 Posted : Monday, June 04, 2018 7:14:38 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Have the auditors flagged anything but the current ratio?
The assets have a lower value in a fire sale situation so ARM needs to sell this as a whole.
I wonder what the breakdown is in losses Kenya vs TZ.

KK was also losing money in TZ. Ohana said the atmosphere was toxic. KE firms aren’t liked.
Perhaps ARM needs to sell the biz. Dangote has a factory down south. He should buy ATM TZ in the north!


ARM is very economical with their results. I would love to see their gross margins, operating margins and net margins. I would also have loved to see their segmental reports. Bure kabisa

That's given in the Annual Report. Even KK doesn't give that info in the "results announcement"...
Will ARM have an Investor Presentation or Conf Call?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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sparkly
#69 Posted : Monday, June 04, 2018 7:28:15 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
RIEK01 wrote:
Good people, stop wasting time over analysing a dead horse. For those with holdings, look for a exit or write off the investment.


You cant make money in stocks with this kind of thinking. To make money in stocks you have to think and act counter-intuitively.

Sell popular stocks and buy unpopular stocks as long as the margin of safety is big enough.

ARM is worth at least 15B but now trading at less than 3B. I Consider the margin big enough.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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obiero
#70 Posted : Monday, June 04, 2018 7:45:17 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,217
Location: nairobi
sparkly wrote:
RIEK01 wrote:
Good people, stop wasting time over analysing a dead horse. For those with holdings, look for a exit or write off the investment.


You cant make money in stocks with this kind of thinking. To make money in stocks you have to think and act counter-intuitively.

Sell popular stocks and buy unpopular stocks as long as the margin of safety is big enough.

ARM is worth at least 15B but now trading at less than 3B. I Consider the margin big enough.

KQ equity is worth KES 72B

KQ ABP 4.26
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