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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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mnandii
#2901 Posted : Tuesday, May 22, 2018 4:37:33 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
mnandii wrote:
wukan wrote:
mnandii wrote:


The NSE 20 Share Index. Though the index is falling, it should find support at 3500 - 3440 or extend further to 3280s (though the 3500 - 3440 is more probable). This is a zigzag formation where waves (a) (b) are complete. The index is now tracing out an impulsive wave (c). Once the bottom of wave (c) is established expect the index to rise above the previous high of 4100


Pray “In God we trust; but all others must bring data.”

Index is at 3445 on 22nd May, 2018.


If it continues further down then we look to the target at 3280s level.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#2902 Posted : Monday, May 28, 2018 5:58:42 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304


USDKES. The pair has completed an Elliott Wave zigzag ABC. Expect a move UP past the previous high of 106.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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lochaz-index
#2903 Posted : Tuesday, May 29, 2018 12:27:23 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
wukan wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
NASI hit an all time high yesterday at 186.6 with the NSE20 checking in at 3840 inches below a critical resistance point @3850. I think we have attained the March high as previously alluded to. Don't see much upside from here. Calling for a top. Bulls should get concerned if the downleg breaches 3450.


The macros point to different scenarios. CBK is pushing hard on monetary easing with all the risks. Treasury pushing on the fiscal consolidation while reforming the rate cap. Let's wait and see if the bulls will refuse.


The bulls refused. Nairobi 20 decreased 26 points or 0.69% to 3745 on Wednesday April 18 from 3771. 3676 is the area to watch next. Safaricom is taking us gently down the streamsmile


Market correction across all counters apart from a few which are resisting

These rock and roll type of rallies don't last long. Remember the one in 2010 after GFC...hard and fast...I tried chasing prices but couldn't then came the drop soon after. This one had all the characteristics of the 2010 rally down to a tee. Felt toppish after the August top which was followed by a consolidation (for six months) then the bottom falls out. Not to mention the bull was mainly pushed by banking stocks plus safaricom and all had heavy legs. Waiting to see how deep the correction will be which is mostly going to be determined by the severity of the fiscal crisis.

ION, 10yr UST is about to vault past the 3% mark, KES touched sub-100 intra-day(with a record reserve ammo to boot), crude is toppish at >$70pb and the USD is just coming out of a multi-year low. Reversals abound.


For now it's time to watch the dollar index in order to correctly catch the NSE waves. With muscular reserves CBK would have done monetary easing wonders if the rate cap was not around.

NSE20 punctured the 3450 level albeit on decelerating momentum. USD slowly inching up though yet to recover the 100 mark - will be interesting to see where KES will end at once the rally over. 10 year UST took a breather below the 3% mark to recharge.

Still a smoke and mirrors game when it comes to crude though very toppish. Some trigger somewhere must go off for the markets to align properly (China looks more and more like the snowflake that begets an avalanche).
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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wukan
#2904 Posted : Wednesday, May 30, 2018 11:31:01 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,654
lochaz-index wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
wukan wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
NASI hit an all time high yesterday at 186.6 with the NSE20 checking in at 3840 inches below a critical resistance point @3850. I think we have attained the March high as previously alluded to. Don't see much upside from here. Calling for a top. Bulls should get concerned if the downleg breaches 3450.


The macros point to different scenarios. CBK is pushing hard on monetary easing with all the risks. Treasury pushing on the fiscal consolidation while reforming the rate cap. Let's wait and see if the bulls will refuse.


The bulls refused. Nairobi 20 decreased 26 points or 0.69% to 3745 on Wednesday April 18 from 3771. 3676 is the area to watch next. Safaricom is taking us gently down the streamsmile


Market correction across all counters apart from a few which are resisting

These rock and roll type of rallies don't last long. Remember the one in 2010 after GFC...hard and fast...I tried chasing prices but couldn't then came the drop soon after. This one had all the characteristics of the 2010 rally down to a tee. Felt toppish after the August top which was followed by a consolidation (for six months) then the bottom falls out. Not to mention the bull was mainly pushed by banking stocks plus safaricom and all had heavy legs. Waiting to see how deep the correction will be which is mostly going to be determined by the severity of the fiscal crisis.

ION, 10yr UST is about to vault past the 3% mark, KES touched sub-100 intra-day(with a record reserve ammo to boot), crude is toppish at >$70pb and the USD is just coming out of a multi-year low. Reversals abound.


For now it's time to watch the dollar index in order to correctly catch the NSE waves. With muscular reserves CBK would have done monetary easing wonders if the rate cap was not around.

NSE20 punctured the 3450 level albeit on decelerating momentum. USD slowly inching up though yet to recover the 100 mark - will be interesting to see where KES will end at once the rally over. 10 year UST took a breather below the 3% mark to recharge.

Still a smoke and mirrors game when it comes to crude though very toppish. Some trigger somewhere must go off for the markets to align properly (China looks more and more like the snowflake that begets an avalanche).


Nairobi 20 increased 14 points or 0.41% to 3359 on Tuesday May 29 from 3345...

Time to take a breather. June will be interesting. The Fed still needs to break junk bonds. The carnage always starts there. I don't crude is toppish it will easily go $100 and beyond.
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shiznit
#2905 Posted : Wednesday, May 30, 2018 3:04:55 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 5/21/2013
Posts: 72
Location: KENYA
mnandii wrote:


USDKES. The pair has completed an Elliott Wave zigzag ABC. Expect a move UP past the previous high of 106.



I find the nexus between technical and fundamental analysis incredibly intriguing. In this case, this holds water if you consider that the KRA Tax Amnesty will come to a close at the end of June 2018. Current USDKES prices are a result of the influx of repatriated funds IMO. When that tap dries up.... Pray
“The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” - John Maynard Keynes
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bartum
#2906 Posted : Friday, June 01, 2018 4:28:50 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/11/2010
Posts: 1,011
Location: nairobi
NSE 20 now at 3333,where are headed, will kcb come below 40
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bartum
#2907 Posted : Friday, June 01, 2018 4:30:20 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/11/2010
Posts: 1,011
Location: nairobi
mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:
wukan wrote:
mnandii wrote:


The NSE 20 Share Index. Though the index is falling, it should find support at 3500 - 3440 or extend further to 3280s (though the 3500 - 3440 is more probable). This is a zigzag formation where waves (a) (b) are complete. The index is now tracing out an impulsive wave (c). Once the bottom of wave (c) is established expect the index to rise above the previous high of 4100


Pray “In God we trust; but all others must bring data.”

Index is at 3445 on 22nd May, 2018.


If it continues further down then we look to the target at 3280s level.

Is it 3250
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Angelica _ann
#2908 Posted : Friday, June 01, 2018 4:33:53 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,935
bartum wrote:
NSE 20 now at 3333,where are headed, will kcb come below 40


Waiting for NIC @30 smile
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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wukan
#2909 Posted : Friday, June 01, 2018 5:59:41 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,654
bartum wrote:
NSE 20 now at 3333,where are headed, will kcb come below 40


Largely depends on the outcome of the cat fight between treasury and the CBK. From what I see in the longer NSE 20 chart 2500 is a possibility to complete the double bottom
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bartum
#2910 Posted : Monday, June 04, 2018 10:18:51 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/11/2010
Posts: 1,011
Location: nairobi
wukan wrote:
bartum wrote:
NSE 20 now at 3333,where are headed, will kcb come below 40


Largely depends on the outcome of the cat fight between treasury and the CBK. From what I see in the longer NSE 20 chart 2500 is a possibility to complete the double bottom

I pray day and night we get 2500
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