wazua Wed, Mar 25, 2026
Welcome Guest Search | Active Topics | Log In

104 Pages«<3132333435>»
ARM HY2017
Options
Previous Topic · Next Topic
Ericsson
#321 Posted : Friday, May 25, 2018 9:30:18 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,808
Location: NAIROBI
obiero wrote:
Today we sight KES 2.70.. Very unsettling times for the NSE. Foreign investors taking cover


And we have sighted it as market opens
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Back to top
WWW
  |
Fyatu
#322 Posted : Friday, May 25, 2018 9:52:56 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,820
Location: Nakuru
muandiwambeu wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
heri wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
guru267 wrote:
I believe there is a deliberate plan to scoop up ARM shares at a throw away price. Time will tell though



1. Shake-off the weak Wanjiku of little faith who are prone to fear by creating uncertainty.

2. Have them stampede as they jump-off the boat.

3. Mop-up the mess(buy at low prices).

.....this NSE is not for the faint hearted. However, tell tale signs are all over. ARM not paying salaries, resignation of long serving directors, late reporting etc.

To me what makes me fear jumping in is the story about delayed salaries suggesting very low revenues, low sales etc. I will watch from the sidelines

Not paying salaries is like not paying rent in your rented premises,the next step is usually being kicked out and auctioned


But you could be parking a merc outside your rented premises


I see what you have done there....A market valuation of Kshs. 2.88B Vs. NAV of 26B as per HY 2017....very enticing but once bitten twice shy
What? NAV of 26bn? How now? Did you deduct liabilities from the assets?


24B to be exact. Check page 16 of this document

Very poor approach of valuing a distressed company. By the time you liquidate you will realise that nothing exists in the name of current assets for a specialized company like arm. Further forced sale value of plant and equipment is oftenly below acceptable levels of 65%. But let us be Mumias bandwagon optimist ie impair every asset by 65% ie
40bn X.65 approx. to26.00bn non current as
7bn X. 65 approx to 4.55bn. Current asset
Totaling to 30.55bn.
Now less all liabilities now that the company has not been able to honor debts as they fall due and factor in debt accumulation at a rate of say 25% of average debt levels per annum to account for such things as salaries in arrears, accumulating debt in general.
Current liab 10bn add 12 bn non current liabilities total liabilities/debt=22bn
Factor debt accumulation at 25%
Ie 22bn+22bn*0.25=27.55bn
Now find net assets for your valuation purposes
30.55bn less 27.55bn= 3bn
Net assets is 3bn.
Per share =3bn/959940200issued shares=3.1251946735848/=
And thats not all. Factor in current years loss of day 1bn.
Jemeni. Kwani hii hesabu ni ngumu aji mwanaume anaingiza kichwa ndani ya krokodile Akina. Anything above two bob is to me buying confusion at a premium especially if you are not a strategic investor like me. If you are not going in to give but to expect., just know karm is like a heifer on heat. It's a potential milker in future so long as you get her fertile body inseminated. https://media.giphy.com/...RF0v9WMAUVLNK/giphy.gif https://media.giphy.com/media/l4FGqUJjXKP2tkW5O/giphy.gif


Fair enough @muandi...atleast not technically insolvent. Here the thoroughly burnt Wanjiku can salvage crumbs falling off ma-bwenyenyes dining table. But i reiterate that this is one risky stock to purchase right now
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
Back to top
  | | Edit by user: Friday, May 25, 2018 9:54 AM | Reason: Not specified
Ericsson
#323 Posted : Friday, May 25, 2018 9:55:44 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,808
Location: NAIROBI
Fyatu wrote:
muandiwambeu wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
heri wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
guru267 wrote:
I believe there is a deliberate plan to scoop up ARM shares at a throw away price. Time will tell though



1. Shake-off the weak Wanjiku of little faith who are prone to fear by creating uncertainty.

2. Have them stampede as they jump-off the boat.

3. Mop-up the mess(buy at low prices).

.....this NSE is not for the faint hearted. However, tell tale signs are all over. ARM not paying salaries, resignation of long serving directors, late reporting etc.

To me what makes me fear jumping in is the story about delayed salaries suggesting very low revenues, low sales etc. I will watch from the sidelines

Not paying salaries is like not paying rent in your rented premises,the next step is usually being kicked out and auctioned


But you could be parking a merc outside your rented premises


I see what you have done there....A market valuation of Kshs. 2.88B Vs. NAV of 26B as per HY 2017....very enticing but once bitten twice shy
What? NAV of 26bn? How now? Did you deduct liabilities from the assets?


24B to be exact. Check page 16 of this document

Very poor approach of valuing a distressed company. By the time you liquidate you will realise that nothing exists in the name of current assets for a specialized company like arm. Further forced sale value of plant and equipment is oftenly below acceptable levels of 65%. But let us be Mumias bandwagon optimist ie impair every asset by 65% ie
40bn X.65 approx. to26.00bn non current as
7bn X. 65 approx to 4.55bn. Current asset
Totaling to 30.55bn.
Now less all liabilities now that the company has not been able to honor debts as they fall due and factor in debt accumulation at a rate of say 25% of average debt levels per annum to account for such things as salaries in arrears, accumulating debt in general.
Current liab 10bn add 12 bn non current liabilities total liabilities/debt=22bn
Factor debt accumulation at 25%
Ie 22bn+22bn*0.25=27.55bn
Now find net assets for your valuation purposes
30.55bn less 27.55bn= 3bn
Net assets is 3bn.
Per share =3bn/959940200issued shares=3.1251946735848/=
And thats not all. Factor in current years loss of day 1bn.
Jemeni. Kwani hii hesabu ni ngumu aji mwanaume anaingiza kichwa ndani ya krokodile Akina. Anything above two bob is to me buying confusion at a premium especially if you are not a strategic investor like me. If you are not going in to give but to expect., just know karm is like a heifer on heat. It's a potential milker in future so long as you get her fertile body inseminated. https://media.giphy.com/...RF0v9WMAUVLNK/giphy.gif https://media.giphy.com/media/l4FGqUJjXKP2tkW5O/giphy.gif


Fair enough @muandi...atleast not technically insolvent. Here the thoroughly burnt Wanjiku can salvage crumbs falling off ma-bwenyenyes dining table. But i reiterate that this is one risky stock to purchase right now


part of the 3bn will be used to pay off employees dues and severeties incase of retrenchment.
Shareholders may be left with even less than 1bn
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Back to top
WWW
  |
muandiwambeu
#324 Posted : Friday, May 25, 2018 10:09:09 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 1,247
Metch wrote:
obiero wrote:
Spikes wrote:
obiero wrote:
xxxxx wrote:
heri wrote:
Surely the net assets must be worth something? how can people wait for it at 1 bob


My point EXACTLY

The assets in practicality do not belong to the company but its debtors, hence the decapitation. Similar to Nakumatt, Uchumi! Its the bank debt that is killing Kenyan companies and nothing else..


Maximum capitulation and thereafter rocket rally with at least 50% return in one month or so.

One month or so? Rocket rally? We still wait.. :)


What could possibly inspire a rocket rally in the short term?
I'll tell you what will not;
1. FY results (recall the handsome profit warning)
2. Looming threat of regulatory action (this is not a GOK firm- options are on the table)
3. Fear. Too many rats scampering to get off this sinking ship. A small gain will inspire more sellers

We may have a temporary ceasefire till those who jumped in at +3bob realize there is a real possibility of 1 Bob. Then we'll see maximum capitulation

I concur. I don't have to wait to regret to thank you metch. Whatever volumes or T. A SAYS lacks one vital ingrident for salvation. Acceptance, confession and changing your old ways. A moot for a better tomorrow. No one has come out to vision this lost camp out of its self greed and self bestowed destruction. Assistant captains abandoned their ship recently, causing further despondency rather than assurance. Pray Pray Pray
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
Back to top
  |
winmak
#325 Posted : Friday, May 25, 2018 10:11:37 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 12/1/2007
Posts: 539
Location: Nakuru
Ericsson wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
muandiwambeu wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
heri wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
guru267 wrote:
I believe there is a deliberate plan to scoop up ARM shares at a throw away price. Time will tell though



1. Shake-off the weak Wanjiku of little faith who are prone to fear by creating uncertainty.

2. Have them stampede as they jump-off the boat.

3. Mop-up the mess(buy at low prices).

.....this NSE is not for the faint hearted. However, tell tale signs are all over. ARM not paying salaries, resignation of long serving directors, late reporting etc.

To me what makes me fear jumping in is the story about delayed salaries suggesting very low revenues, low sales etc. I will watch from the sidelines

Not paying salaries is like not paying rent in your rented premises,the next step is usually being kicked out and auctioned


But you could be parking a merc outside your rented premises


I see what you have done there....A market valuation of Kshs. 2.88B Vs. NAV of 26B as per HY 2017....very enticing but once bitten twice shy
What? NAV of 26bn? How now? Did you deduct liabilities from the assets?


24B to be exact. Check page 16 of this document

Very poor approach of valuing a distressed company. By the time you liquidate you will realise that nothing exists in the name of current assets for a specialized company like arm. Further forced sale value of plant and equipment is oftenly below acceptable levels of 65%. But let us be Mumias bandwagon optimist ie impair every asset by 65% ie
40bn X.65 approx. to26.00bn non current as
7bn X. 65 approx to 4.55bn. Current asset
Totaling to 30.55bn.
Now less all liabilities now that the company has not been able to honor debts as they fall due and factor in debt accumulation at a rate of say 25% of average debt levels per annum to account for such things as salaries in arrears, accumulating debt in general.
Current liab 10bn add 12 bn non current liabilities total liabilities/debt=22bn
Factor debt accumulation at 25%
Ie 22bn+22bn*0.25=27.55bn
Now find net assets for your valuation purposes
30.55bn less 27.55bn= 3bn
Net assets is 3bn.
Per share =3bn/959940200issued shares=3.1251946735848/=
And thats not all. Factor in current years loss of day 1bn.
Jemeni. Kwani hii hesabu ni ngumu aji mwanaume anaingiza kichwa ndani ya krokodile Akina. Anything above two bob is to me buying confusion at a premium especially if you are not a strategic investor like me. If you are not going in to give but to expect., just know karm is like a heifer on heat. It's a potential milker in future so long as you get her fertile body inseminated. https://media.giphy.com/...RF0v9WMAUVLNK/giphy.gif https://media.giphy.com/media/l4FGqUJjXKP2tkW5O/giphy.gif


Fair enough @muandi...atleast not technically insolvent. Here the thoroughly burnt Wanjiku can salvage crumbs falling off ma-bwenyenyes dining table. But i reiterate that this is one risky stock to purchase right now


part of the 3bn will be used to pay off employees dues and severeties incase of retrenchment.
Shareholders may be left with even less than 1bn


And we are quickly heading to @Muandi's 2/=
For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases ~ WB
Back to top
  |
lochaz-index
#326 Posted : Friday, May 25, 2018 10:26:32 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Wow! The capitulation witnessed (still ongoing) has been unbelievable. Not sure I have seen that kind of a drop in such a short span of time. Debt fueled puffing up if not well managed ends with catastrophic consequences. Don't see the possibility of an outright buyout, asset stripping is the more plausible option if at all.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
Back to top
  |
sparkly
#327 Posted : Friday, May 25, 2018 10:29:19 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
Today we sight KES 2.70.. Very unsettling times for the NSE. Foreign investors taking cover


And we have sighted it as market opens


Mtu amechokoza with 100 shares at 2.70.

Supply of 100k at 2.70 with no other takers.
Life is short. Live passionately.
Back to top
  |
mlennyma
#328 Posted : Friday, May 25, 2018 10:30:14 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
lochaz-index wrote:
Wow! The capitulation witnessed (still ongoing) has been unbelievable. Not sure I have seen that kind of a drop in such a short span of time. Debt fueled puffing up if not well managed ends with catastrophic consequences. Don't see the possibility of an outright buyout, asset stripping is the more plausible option if at all.

do you mean the recent partners will just do nothing and watch the river washing away their money?
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Back to top
WWW
  | | Edit by user: Friday, May 25, 2018 10:31 AM | Reason: Not specified
obiero
#329 Posted : Friday, May 25, 2018 11:15:26 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,226
Location: nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Wow! The capitulation witnessed (still ongoing) has been unbelievable. Not sure I have seen that kind of a drop in such a short span of time. Debt fueled puffing up if not well managed ends with catastrophic consequences. Don't see the possibility of an outright buyout, asset stripping is the more plausible option if at all.

do you mean the recent partners will just do nothing and watch the river washing away their money?

Its beyond their control

Back to top
WWW
  |
cyruskulei
#330 Posted : Friday, May 25, 2018 12:12:18 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/9/2010
Posts: 320
Location: kenya
https://live.mystocks.co...f+the+premium+valuation
Work hard at your job and you can make a living. Work hard on yourself and you can make a fortune.
Back to top
  |
104 Pages«<3132333435>»
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Wazua Investor Theme
Powered by YAF | YAF © 2003-2009, Yet Another Forum.NET
Copyright © 2026 Wazua.co.ke. All Rights Reserved.