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Bamburi SELL, ARM HOLD
sparkly
#1 Posted : Tuesday, June 08, 2010 8:22:40 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Cfc has predicted increased demand for cement in EA region. Competition will be tight esp from cheaper imports. Local producers faced with capacity constraints and high energy costs. They have given a HOLD recommendation for ARM and SELL for bamburi and EAPC. They say BAM is overvalued and EAPC inefficient. ARM to benefit from clinker plant.
Life is short. Live passionately.
guru267
#2 Posted : Wednesday, June 09, 2010 8:58:00 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
Cfc has predicted increased demand for cement in EA region. Competition will be tight esp from cheaper imports. Local producers faced with capacity constraints and high energy costs. They have given a HOLD recommendation for ARM and SELL for bamburi and EAPC. They say BAM is overvalued and EAPC inefficient. ARM to benefit from clinker plant.


@sparkly i agree totally with this analysis... Bamburi cannot match last years results due to the one off capital gains but i'm not sure about EAPC because the stock has a really low P/E and ARM is a perfect cement firm to hold...

As for the energy costs doesnt CFC forsee these falling next year due to reduced usage of thermal power????
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
sheep
#3 Posted : Wednesday, June 09, 2010 10:43:49 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
he he he Laughing out loudly quite comical,ati Bamburi OVERVALUED...they dont come better than thisLaughing out loudly

mhhh...Bamburi had a normalised increase in EPS of 21% as compared to 28% increase in ARM.P/E of Bamb is 12.5(without the one off gains),ARM is 18...commonsense stuff!
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
sparkly
#4 Posted : Wednesday, June 09, 2010 1:29:08 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
ARM'sgrowth has been phenomenon in the last 10 years or so, but is nevertheless a small company.

Bamburi must be like 5 times bigger than ARM (i dont have the exact figures). Bamburi also has a 40% stake in EAPC.

ARM has a PE of 20 and a DY of 1.16% while Bamburi PE is 11.9 and DY 5.53%.

ARM is highly geared, loans and corporate bonds. Bamburi mostly equity.

If any of those companies has the ability to weather the so called "competition from cheap imports" that company IMO is Bamburi.

Once again the analysts have shown us why we should not rely on them.

The are clearly in love with GROWTH STOCKS.
Life is short. Live passionately.
My 2 cents
#5 Posted : Wednesday, June 09, 2010 2:04:53 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 1,089
@Sparkly the DY for Bamburi adjusted for this year's special Capital Gains on sales of ARM shares is actually lower than 3%(5.5/200). The level of 9 bob per share is unlikely to be replicated next year.
sparkly
#6 Posted : Wednesday, June 09, 2010 5:57:06 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
My 2 cents wrote:
@Sparkly the DY for Bamburi adjusted for this year's special Capital Gains on sales of ARM shares is actually lower than 3%(5.5/200). The level of 9 bob per share is unlikely to be replicated next year.

@my 2 cents i agree. The special div is historical and obviously factored into the current price. Our mkt would not be that inefficient. CFC is convinced that only Bamburi will cede mkt share to mombasa cement, cemtech and the cheap imports, while ARM will grab more mkt share. IMO Bamburi has the resources to pull a Safaricom.
Life is short. Live passionately.
VituVingiSana
#7 Posted : Wednesday, June 09, 2010 9:02:30 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
ARM growing in Tanzania. Bamburi cannot grow in any countries except Kenya & Uganda (Hima Cement) since Bamburi's PARENT (LaFarge) has interests all over the place...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
My 2 cents
#8 Posted : Thursday, June 10, 2010 7:58:45 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 1,089
Reason why I love this stock is because they are soooo cash rich, almost no debt and costs are tightly controlled. And with all the construction craze right now, there is more than enough business for all the players.
qw25041985
#9 Posted : Saturday, August 07, 2010 4:33:00 AM
Rank: User

Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
@sparkly how right u were. I hope those who read ur post held . Not only to see ARM post very nice first half profits but also to sell a considerable share price appreciation !
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
kyt
#10 Posted : Saturday, August 07, 2010 2:36:08 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 11/7/2007
Posts: 2,182
i still feel BAMB will grow
LOVE WHAT YOU DO, DO WHAT YOU LOVE.
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