I do not know. I will let you know when I find out.

I am not a seller at 20. I think the EPS will exceed (ceteris paribus) 2.50 for 2018 now that the junk (KPRL, Segman) has been cleaned out in 2017.
I kept the faith in Ohana's stewardship. Now he needs to sell KK at 25+

It's a tough industry. I was also a fan of Segman but he became greedy with hedges. It's a travesty he got paid 700mn for running the firm down!
Ohana seems to have stayed away from hedging and does a lot of Inventory Management.

Ceteris Paribus. If the prices of oil remain high, GoK may defer the VAT on fuel. It's about politics.
Fuel consumption is inelastic to a high degree. Folks will economize, make fewer trips, use more public transport, etc BUT the usage may reduce just not a huge drop.

KK is a strong player with a strong balance sheet and support from many financiers. I think smaller players will be squeezed out OR they will start evading taxes. This might be a good time for KK to pick up more stations to maintain (not grow) volumes.

My "predictions" (ceteris paribus) for 2018 which can easily turn out to be WRONG on KK
- Local (KE) volumes (fuel) will be maintained
- More local (KE) stations will be acquired/rebranded
- Growth in LPG volume sales
- Diluted EPS (with Ohana's 88mn (5%) share options) should be 2.50 [I hope for 2.75+ but the higher oil prices will hurt]
- Some issues/problems with the app. Teething problems.
- Increased financing costs driven by higher prices
- Loss in Burundi
- Breakeven to barely profitable in Ethiopia since KK has shed off many poorly performing stations.
- Net debt (loans less inventory) will not increase EXCEPT for an acquisition
- An acquisition may be announced in 2018 as KK has financiers lined up

EPS of 2.50 x 8 PER = 20 which is rather modest. It's not as much a bargain it was 1 year ago.

Congrats guys on KK, you kept the faith from about 7 bob. It was patience at its best. Fundamentals don't lie!!!

Reverse gear in motion