wukan wrote:VituVingiSana wrote: CMA is not solely to blame. That "lethargy" comes from the top. Look at GoK's level of borrowing. $3bn Eurobond planned to pay off old loans! The total debt of GoK may hit KES 5,000,000,000,000 [5 Trillion] by 30th Dec 2018.
Assume Kenya's population is 50mn so that's 100,000 per Kenyan! This includes the (currently) economically non-productive members of society eg kids, elderly folk. [BTW, I am not saying they are not economically important or anything of the sort just that those who can produce - working age and actively engaged in production - are a significantly smaller % of the population hence the debt per capita is effectively much higher].
GoK needs to reduce its borrowings while cutting down on waste. Nothing new. Look at the recent 10bn NYS scam. It just goes on and on.
Some time soon GoK will get to feel the kind of pain it has caused the private sector. It will be a nasty period but something has to give
Sadly, that is not to be. I know it is good to remain optimistic but let's not bury our heads in the sand. On a risk adjusted basis, including loans in FX, say the interest rate is 10% p.a for GoK = KES 500,000,000,000 per year which is 10k per every Kenyan. That's just interest.
How many Kenyans are employed (all sorts of employment)? [Let's say 25% but KNBS might be a better source]
That means interest per "employed Kenyan" is 40k/year.
How many of us have 40k as "discretionary" income when many of the employed are living hand to mouth?
If we economize, significantly reduce corruption, stop borrowing and improve tax compliance, stop paying moi and kibaki 96mn/year and reduce spending 667mn on entertainment (UK + DP) and other frivolous stuff on "leaders" then we can do much better. I can dream.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett