Wazua
»
Investor
»
Stocks
»
ARM HY2017
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,804 Location: NAIROBI
|
lochaz-index wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Ericsson wrote:Lafarge begins due diligence on ARM Cement as Dangote Backs out
It was reported late last year by Bloomberg that four of the world’s largest cement manufacturers; LafargeHolcim, Heidelberg Cement AG, Dangote Cement Plc and Titan Cement Co. SA of Greece were exploring a potential bid for Kenyan troubled cement maker ARM Cement.
A source with knowledge of the matter has intimated to Kenyan Wallstreet that Dangote Cement, Heidelberg and Titan Cement companies have formally dropped out of the bidding, leaving Lafarge to explore possibilities of buying a majority stake in the company which is currently on the verge of sinking if not rescued on time.
According to the source, Lafarge, the world’s largest cement maker has engaged a team of consultants to conduct due diligence on ARM Cement and explore synergies that could be created if the deal goes through. The process, which is at an early stage, seeks to analyze potential opportunities, and perform financial valuations and business assessments including the identification of risks and opportunities.
“We are in the process of finding an equity and a strategic buyer to inject equity into the business,” ARM MD Pradeep Paunrana was quoted by Bloomberg in December. “The process is on and we expect over the next few weeks to complete that process.” He also added that there were more than six potential investors at the time.
Nevertheless, this buy would be an immensely bold, complicated and pricey move: NSE-listed ARM Cement has a market cap of Sh 12.7 Billion but the company’s majority shareholders (Paunranas & CDC) expect a premium offer.
Just last week, ARM issued a late profit warning, projecting that the Group’s net loss for the financial year ended 31 December 2017 may widen by at least Sh3.5 billion from a loss of Sh1.4 billion in the previous year. The Group is of the opinion that difficult market conditions have negatively impacted its performance as well as the import ban for coal in Tanzania. Additionally, the Group attributes a possible net earnings decrease on the extended and disruptive election period in Kenya and a strain on its working capital.
It’s also worthwhile mentioning that LafargeHolcim is already a significant player in the local market with 41.7 per cent stake in East Africa Portland Cement (EAPCC) and a controlling stake of 58.9 per cent at rival firm Bamburi Cement, Kenya’s biggest cement producer. From being one of the priciest stocks in the bourse to literally angling for a bailout. Perils of over-leveraging. The leverage would have worked had the cement consumption kept up with the patterns during the Kibaki administration. Something just went wrong around 2014. With ARM this is a case of deja vu as @VVS has intimated above. They tend to bite more than they can chew. Despite the anemic econ the other cement producers are not in the same predicament. @vvs was a fun of the counter/stock during the debt expansion. Little did he know what lies benath Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/20/2011 Posts: 1,820 Location: Nakuru
|
lochaz-index wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Ericsson wrote:Lafarge begins due diligence on ARM Cement as Dangote Backs out
It was reported late last year by Bloomberg that four of the world’s largest cement manufacturers; LafargeHolcim, Heidelberg Cement AG, Dangote Cement Plc and Titan Cement Co. SA of Greece were exploring a potential bid for Kenyan troubled cement maker ARM Cement.
A source with knowledge of the matter has intimated to Kenyan Wallstreet that Dangote Cement, Heidelberg and Titan Cement companies have formally dropped out of the bidding, leaving Lafarge to explore possibilities of buying a majority stake in the company which is currently on the verge of sinking if not rescued on time.
According to the source, Lafarge, the world’s largest cement maker has engaged a team of consultants to conduct due diligence on ARM Cement and explore synergies that could be created if the deal goes through. The process, which is at an early stage, seeks to analyze potential opportunities, and perform financial valuations and business assessments including the identification of risks and opportunities.
“We are in the process of finding an equity and a strategic buyer to inject equity into the business,” ARM MD Pradeep Paunrana was quoted by Bloomberg in December. “The process is on and we expect over the next few weeks to complete that process.” He also added that there were more than six potential investors at the time.
Nevertheless, this buy would be an immensely bold, complicated and pricey move: NSE-listed ARM Cement has a market cap of Sh 12.7 Billion but the company’s majority shareholders (Paunranas & CDC) expect a premium offer.
Just last week, ARM issued a late profit warning, projecting that the Group’s net loss for the financial year ended 31 December 2017 may widen by at least Sh3.5 billion from a loss of Sh1.4 billion in the previous year. The Group is of the opinion that difficult market conditions have negatively impacted its performance as well as the import ban for coal in Tanzania. Additionally, the Group attributes a possible net earnings decrease on the extended and disruptive election period in Kenya and a strain on its working capital.
It’s also worthwhile mentioning that LafargeHolcim is already a significant player in the local market with 41.7 per cent stake in East Africa Portland Cement (EAPCC) and a controlling stake of 58.9 per cent at rival firm Bamburi Cement, Kenya’s biggest cement producer. From being one of the priciest stocks in the bourse to literally angling for a bailout. Perils of over-leveraging. The leverage would have worked had the cement consumption kept up with the patterns during the Kibaki administration. Something just went wrong around 2014. With ARM this is a case of deja vu as @VVS has intimated above. They tend to bite more than they can chew. Despite the anemic econ the other cement producers are not in the same predicament. Mombasa cement, Simba cement and Savannah cement are selling like hot bread. It is rare to find Rhino RX cement in hardwares nowadays.Perhaps ARM is curving a new niche. See link below LINKDumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,347 Location: Nairobi
|
lochaz-index wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Ericsson wrote:Lafarge begins due diligence on ARM Cement as Dangote Backs out
It was reported late last year by Bloomberg that four of the world’s largest cement manufacturers; LafargeHolcim, Heidelberg Cement AG, Dangote Cement Plc and Titan Cement Co. SA of Greece were exploring a potential bid for Kenyan troubled cement maker ARM Cement.
A source with knowledge of the matter has intimated to Kenyan Wallstreet that Dangote Cement, Heidelberg and Titan Cement companies have formally dropped out of the bidding, leaving Lafarge to explore possibilities of buying a majority stake in the company which is currently on the verge of sinking if not rescued on time.
According to the source, Lafarge, the world’s largest cement maker has engaged a team of consultants to conduct due diligence on ARM Cement and explore synergies that could be created if the deal goes through. The process, which is at an early stage, seeks to analyze potential opportunities, and perform financial valuations and business assessments including the identification of risks and opportunities.
“We are in the process of finding an equity and a strategic buyer to inject equity into the business,” ARM MD Pradeep Paunrana was quoted by Bloomberg in December. “The process is on and we expect over the next few weeks to complete that process.” He also added that there were more than six potential investors at the time.
Nevertheless, this buy would be an immensely bold, complicated and pricey move: NSE-listed ARM Cement has a market cap of Sh 12.7 Billion but the company’s majority shareholders (Paunranas & CDC) expect a premium offer.
Just last week, ARM issued a late profit warning, projecting that the Group’s net loss for the financial year ended 31 December 2017 may widen by at least Sh3.5 billion from a loss of Sh1.4 billion in the previous year. The Group is of the opinion that difficult market conditions have negatively impacted its performance as well as the import ban for coal in Tanzania. Additionally, the Group attributes a possible net earnings decrease on the extended and disruptive election period in Kenya and a strain on its working capital.
It’s also worthwhile mentioning that LafargeHolcim is already a significant player in the local market with 41.7 per cent stake in East Africa Portland Cement (EAPCC) and a controlling stake of 58.9 per cent at rival firm Bamburi Cement, Kenya’s biggest cement producer. From being one of the priciest stocks in the bourse to literally angling for a bailout. Perils of over-leveraging. The leverage would have worked had the cement consumption kept up with the patterns during the Kibaki administration. Something just went wrong around 2014. With ARM this is a case of deja vu as @VVS has intimated above. They tend to bite more than they can chew. Despite the anemic econ the other cement producers are not in the same predicament. That we do not know for sure. Except for Bamburi, whose parent is the massive LaFarge, EAPCC is dead in the water with anemic production and losses galore. The other firms are privately owned thus need not publish their financials for all to see. ARM would have been better served if it had gone on a slow but steady expansion path. Others that faltered with rapid expansion, funded by debt, include Nakumatt, Uchumi, KQ, etc... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,347 Location: Nairobi
|
Ericsson wrote:lochaz-index wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Ericsson wrote:Lafarge begins due diligence on ARM Cement as Dangote Backs out
It was reported late last year by Bloomberg that four of the world’s largest cement manufacturers; LafargeHolcim, Heidelberg Cement AG, Dangote Cement Plc and Titan Cement Co. SA of Greece were exploring a potential bid for Kenyan troubled cement maker ARM Cement.
A source with knowledge of the matter has intimated to Kenyan Wallstreet that Dangote Cement, Heidelberg and Titan Cement companies have formally dropped out of the bidding, leaving Lafarge to explore possibilities of buying a majority stake in the company which is currently on the verge of sinking if not rescued on time.
According to the source, Lafarge, the world’s largest cement maker has engaged a team of consultants to conduct due diligence on ARM Cement and explore synergies that could be created if the deal goes through. The process, which is at an early stage, seeks to analyze potential opportunities, and perform financial valuations and business assessments including the identification of risks and opportunities.
“We are in the process of finding an equity and a strategic buyer to inject equity into the business,” ARM MD Pradeep Paunrana was quoted by Bloomberg in December. “The process is on and we expect over the next few weeks to complete that process.” He also added that there were more than six potential investors at the time.
Nevertheless, this buy would be an immensely bold, complicated and pricey move: NSE-listed ARM Cement has a market cap of Sh 12.7 Billion but the company’s majority shareholders (Paunranas & CDC) expect a premium offer.
Just last week, ARM issued a late profit warning, projecting that the Group’s net loss for the financial year ended 31 December 2017 may widen by at least Sh3.5 billion from a loss of Sh1.4 billion in the previous year. The Group is of the opinion that difficult market conditions have negatively impacted its performance as well as the import ban for coal in Tanzania. Additionally, the Group attributes a possible net earnings decrease on the extended and disruptive election period in Kenya and a strain on its working capital.
It’s also worthwhile mentioning that LafargeHolcim is already a significant player in the local market with 41.7 per cent stake in East Africa Portland Cement (EAPCC) and a controlling stake of 58.9 per cent at rival firm Bamburi Cement, Kenya’s biggest cement producer. From being one of the priciest stocks in the bourse to literally angling for a bailout. Perils of over-leveraging. The leverage would have worked had the cement consumption kept up with the patterns during the Kibaki administration. Something just went wrong around 2014. With ARM this is a case of deja vu as @VVS has intimated above. They tend to bite more than they can chew. Despite the anemic econ the other cement producers are not in the same predicament. @vvs was a fun of the counter/stock during the debt expansion. Little did he know what lies benath Nope. I did regret not buying ARM shares when they were deep in the funk [as low as 3/- pre-split/bonus and went up to 60]. It's mesmerizing to see a firm's share price go higher and higher but I never bought the shares since I found the PER & P/B challenging. I have followed WB for years and he talks of "value investing" ... Even as I admired Equity's and Safaricom's rapid growth in EPS and price, I only became a shareholder much later in these firms after they "stabilized" i.e. I became more comfortable with their growth. [Yes, I missed out on the gains] After my (very expensive) lesson in KQ in 2012, I adjusted my investments to the principles that WB espouses. It's not easy to keep the faith when others are talking of "huge" gains made through speculation and one wonders why their portfolio is performing poorly in comparison. Nevertheless, I have realized WB's method ensures a slow and steady growth in one's portfolio. And not all investments, even carefully selected, will pan out. Diversify but do not over-diversify. 5-10 Core Holdings. I chose 5 core holdings. So I do miss out on "rapid growth" firms eg ARM (during the heydays), Equity, even Safaricom, CIC, etc BUT I also sleep at night. I have ARM on my watch-list but I will only invest in it if I like what I see after I upcoming restructuring looks like. Currently, I am sticking with (mostly) low debt:equity firms [adjusted for inventory/receivables] eg KK, KenRe (  #BringBackMwarania, Unga, banks, TPSEA, etc. Corporate Governance and Management are very important hence my disappointment at what's happening at KenRe. Bottomline: ARM doesn't fit the bill. Yet. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,804 Location: NAIROBI
|
6 bob here we come Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 12/22/2015 Posts: 224 Location: Mombasa, Kenya
|
Ericsson wrote:6 bob here we come touched 6 bob. seems to be in free fall Start!
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,804 Location: NAIROBI
|
Metch wrote:Ericsson wrote:6 bob here we come touched 6 bob. seems to be in free fall Next 5.20 Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 7/10/2014 Posts: 145 Location: Nairobi
|
Metch wrote:Ericsson wrote:6 bob here we come touched 6 bob. seems to be in free fall Wanjiku panic causing this mess. I dont think the institutional and big investors who own about 85% of ARM are making these outrageous sales. "Blowing out someone else candle won't make yours shine brighter"-Anonymous
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,217 Location: nairobi
|
jgithige wrote:Metch wrote:Ericsson wrote:6 bob here we come touched 6 bob. seems to be in free fall Wanjiku panic causing this mess. I dont think the institutional and big investors who own about 85% of ARM are making these outrageous sales. Penny stock from a previously stellar investment. Hii NSE si rahisi KQ ABP 4.26
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,347 Location: Nairobi
|
Another bailout required! I wonder which local banks are exposed to ARM Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
|
|
|
Wazua
»
Investor
»
Stocks
»
ARM HY2017
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.
|