I was burnt to recognition after diving head-first into Atlas Development Support Services(ADSS), later known as Atlas Africa Industries. I learn't the hard way that buying the hype(e.g., Chancho project) is for lack of a better word Speculating. Nowadays, my strategy is to evaluate a firm's past earnings first and then do what long-termers call subjective/qualitative analysis with an aim of predicting future earnings and evaluating risk.This involves a lot of research like visiting supermarkets and malls, standing at a shelf where the product is displayed and chatting with supermarket attendants etc. For example, if i wanted to invest in Deacons today i will visit a couple of malls where they have shops e.g., during Easter, Xmas, Endmonth, or any other day when they have a sale and observe foot traffick to the cashier...not foot traffic through the door. I will then ask myself questions about Kenyans future ability to purchase goods from deacons, who the competitors are, who the management is, look at balance sheets for the previous 5 years and also evaluate the macro economics of the country(KE) going forward. Sometimes I also find myself visiting hardware stores, mjengos and even major infrastructure projects and asking schoolboy questions like "where do you buy the cement?". After my experiences with Atlas and Tranny, i have become very serious with where i put my money.

Another example is,

If Simba cement was to list the same day as Cytonn, i would invest in Simba cement just for the mere fact that i see truckfulls being loaded with Simba cement everyday and my rough guess-timate that the demand of cement will grow at a modest estimate of 6% per annum for the next ten years and also that there is evidence that Simba is well placed in reaping from this demand because they control the value chain from clinker to power production, to finished product. My decision will also be influenced by the NAV, ROE,gross profit margins and other ratios etc. Again, i have to look for the final year reports and find these ratios for myself and then try predict the future earnings.Cytonn seems to be selling the dream. As @VVS has posited, they will hire a firm who will use kizungu mingi to hype their projects which are yet to be launched or yet to start making money(Think home Africa).If you are not careful you will be naswad hook, line and sinker in golden handcuffs forever if you are lucky, but for my case the wakora at Atlas even brought down their website and disappeared without a trace.

DISCLAIMER: Nobody can predict the future

As they say, experience is the best teacher

Me too

@Aguytrying soo true. its odd that any other person would see it differently. this thing will tank on the first day of listing.. KES 60 is too dear a price

Coward.