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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,568
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lochaz-index wrote:Ericsson wrote:wukan wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:NASI hit an all time high yesterday at 186.6 with the NSE20 checking in at 3840 inches below a critical resistance point @3850. I think we have attained the March high as previously alluded to. Don't see much upside from here. Calling for a top. Bulls should get concerned if the downleg breaches 3450. The macros point to different scenarios. CBK is pushing hard on monetary easing with all the risks. Treasury pushing on the fiscal consolidation while reforming the rate cap. Let's wait and see if the bulls will refuse. The bulls refused. Nairobi 20 decreased 26 points or 0.69% to 3745 on Wednesday April 18 from 3771. 3676 is the area to watch next. Safaricom is taking us gently down the stream  Market correction across all counters apart from a few which are resisting These rock and roll type of rallies don't last long. Remember the one in 2010 after GFC...hard and fast...I tried chasing prices but couldn't then came the drop soon after. This one had all the characteristics of the 2010 rally down to a tee. Felt toppish after the August top which was followed by a consolidation (for six months) then the bottom falls out. Not to mention the bull was mainly pushed by banking stocks plus safaricom and all had heavy legs. Waiting to see how deep the correction will be which is mostly going to be determined by the severity of the fiscal crisis. ION, 10yr UST is about to vault past the 3% mark, KES touched sub-100 intra-day(with a record reserve ammo to boot), crude is toppish at >$70pb and the USD is just coming out of a multi-year low. Reversals abound. For now it's time to watch the dollar index in order to correctly catch the NSE waves. With muscular reserves CBK would have done monetary easing wonders if the rate cap was not around.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,639 Location: NAIROBI
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The trick is --GOK does massive cost cutting --Ksh strengthens --Repeal interest rates cap.Interest rates won't rise afterwards so long as GOK doesn't go on borrowing spree Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Ericsson wrote:The trick is
--GOK does massive cost cutting
--Ksh strengthens
--Repeal interest rates cap.Interest rates won't rise afterwards so long as GOK doesn't go on borrowing spree 1. IMF is responsible for that one. 2. KES strength does not only depend on domestic matters but mostly on performance of the dollar. Even the recent rally in KES was not coz of improving internal fundamentals but rather dollar weakness. In a reversal the much KE can do is burn through its reserves in a futile defence attempt. 3. Same as no.2. Interest rates(locally and internationally) must go up whether the rate cap stays as is, is modified or repealed. GoK on the other hand will be forced to borrow massively in the domestic market from Q2 onwards if only just to manage interest payments...add any bullet principal payment and it ain't a pretty picture. Note that recent growth has been GoK driven so any austerity on that front will be painful. No easy fix once the decay has gotten this far. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,053 Location: Nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:The trick is
--GOK does massive cost cutting
--Ksh strengthens
--Repeal interest rates cap.Interest rates won't rise afterwards so long as GOK doesn't go on borrowing spree When did you become a comedian? "GOK does massive cost cutting" GoK can't even get folks to use the SGR to transport cargo without huge subsidies and coercion yet this was a $3-6bn [depending on sources] "investment" that was supposed to bring about immediate gains Now the SGR is being extended to Naivasha "...so long as GOK doesn't go on borrowing spree" I would like to see that happen but... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/20/2011 Posts: 1,820 Location: Nakuru
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Anybody out there who knows what is the PE of NSE20? Where can i get such data? Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,639 Location: NAIROBI
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Fyatu wrote:Anybody out there who knows what is the PE of NSE20? Where can i get such data? PE for the companies that constitute NSE20 or NSE20? Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/20/2011 Posts: 1,820 Location: Nakuru
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Ericsson wrote:Fyatu wrote:Anybody out there who knows what is the PE of NSE20? Where can i get such data? PE for the companies that constitute NSE20 or NSE20? PE for companies that constitute NSE20. I wouldn't mind getting PE data for different sectors e.g., manufacturing, banking etc Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/15/2015 Posts: 817
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whats happening is just a retracement.which is good for the momentum of the rally.no need to freakout (unless freaking out is your speciallity!!)i do expect the stocks that rallied before the tracement to continue to rally once it resumes its course.banks as usual leading the way
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/25/2012 Posts: 4,105 Location: 08c
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Fyatu wrote:Ericsson wrote:Fyatu wrote:Anybody out there who knows what is the PE of NSE20? Where can i get such data? PE for the companies that constitute NSE20 or NSE20? PE for companies that constitute NSE20. I wouldn't mind getting PE data for different sectors e.g., manufacturing, banking etc Trading Multiples: (D&B)
12 months Highs & Lows, YTD, Daily trading Volumes, EPS, DPS, NAVs, P/Es, P/Bs, Divs, Payout Ratios, ROEs, ROAs and all Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/20/2011 Posts: 1,820 Location: Nakuru
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Pesa Nane wrote:Fyatu wrote:Ericsson wrote:Fyatu wrote:Anybody out there who knows what is the PE of NSE20? Where can i get such data? PE for the companies that constitute NSE20 or NSE20? PE for companies that constitute NSE20. I wouldn't mind getting PE data for different sectors e.g., manufacturing, banking etc Trading Multiples: (D&B)
12 months Highs & Lows, YTD, Daily trading Volumes, EPS, DPS, NAVs, P/Es, P/Bs, Divs, Payout Ratios, ROEs, ROAs and all Shukran rafiki @Pesa Nane Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/15/2015 Posts: 817
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things arenot really looking good at the charts !should we pass the part marked x i think bull should be thinking twice about their strength.the part marked x is the lowest point of the last swing high.any swing traders in the house ?????bear with the photo resolution though... 
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,175 Location: nairobi
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Going EX season kicks in "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,568
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wukan wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:NASI hit an all time high yesterday at 186.6 with the NSE20 checking in at 3840 inches below a critical resistance point @3850. I think we have attained the March high as previously alluded to. Don't see much upside from here. Calling for a top. Bulls should get concerned if the downleg breaches 3450. The macros point to different scenarios. CBK is pushing hard on monetary easing with all the risks. Treasury pushing on the fiscal consolidation while reforming the rate cap. Let's wait and see if the bulls will refuse. The bulls refused. Nairobi 20 decreased 26 points or 0.69% to 3745 on Wednesday April 18 from 3771. 3676 is the area to watch next. Safaricom is taking us gently down the stream Nairobi 20 decreased 27 points or 0.72% to 3663 on Thursday May 3 from 3690 in the previous trading session Gently down the stream....3450
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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SAFCOM ANALYSIS  Safaricom has been in an extension of blue wave 5 whence pink waves circle ((i))-((iii)) are complete. At the moment Safcom is in pink wave ((iv)), a zigzag, which I expect to complete at about 24.75. Once wave ((iv)) completes then Safcom should make a final move up above the previous high (34.00) to complete wave ((v)) and the higher degree blue wave 5. I'll give targets for blue wave 5 once I get evidence of completion of wave ((iv)). For now be long with your SL at 22.00 and target a move above 34.00. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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mnandii wrote:SAFCOM ANALYSIS Safaricom has been in an extension of blue wave 5 whence pink waves circle ((i))-((iii)) are complete. At the moment Safcom is in pink wave ((iv)), a zigzag, which I expect to complete at about 24.75. Once wave ((iv)) completes then Safcom should make a final move up above the previous high (34.00) to complete wave ((v)) and the higher degree blue wave 5. I'll give targets for blue wave 5 once I get evidence of completion of wave ((iv)). For now be long with your SL at 22.00 and target a move above 34.00. What site to you use to TA Kenyan stocks?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,901
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ARM anyone?????????? In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,639 Location: NAIROBI
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Angelica _ann wrote:ARM anyone?????????? @Angelica_ann That one is dead Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/20/2011 Posts: 1,820 Location: Nakuru
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Angelica _ann wrote:ARM anyone?????????? I am looking for FY 2017. Where can i find these?? Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,639 Location: NAIROBI
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Fyatu wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:ARM anyone?????????? I am looking for FY 2017. Where can i find these?? Not yet released;things are thick. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,901
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Ericsson wrote:Fyatu wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:ARM anyone?????????? I am looking for FY 2017. Where can i find these?? Not yet released;things are thick. 6.45  In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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