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Pyramids
mukiha
#1 Posted : Monday, June 07, 2010 12:58:24 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
drake wrote:
For argument's sake though, what would be your thought on pyramid/ponzi schemes as an asset class?

Also, surely it's included in 'M' [CAPM]

Welcome your thoughts...



But can they be called ASSETS?
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
muganda
#2 Posted : Monday, June 07, 2010 3:10:08 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,905
Interesting discussion... Good question...
No underlying asset in my view because even though ponzi proceeds are reinvested, they cannot raise enough money from conventional asset classes to pay new entrants.


From my quick read:
Pyramid is similar to Ponzi scheme but relies on additional participants to recruit; much like GNLD but no product

Bubble is similar to Ponzi scheme but relies on theory "to make money in the market, there's always a fool who's losing" and must eventually collapse/self-correct

Serial borrowers are individuals who behave like Ponzis when they continually borrow to pay off another debt without generating the income.



American crisis of unregulated banks that create complex derivatives and are too big to fail take advanatage of the Ponzi setup:
Knowingly entering a Ponzi scheme, even at the last round of the scheme, can be rational economically if there is a reasonable expectation that government or other deep pockets will bail out those participating in the Ponzi scheme.

drake
#3 Posted : Tuesday, June 08, 2010 3:49:06 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/8/2009
Posts: 170
Is it an asset class? In the strict (traditional) sense of the word, probably not...but then again, are Hedge Funds asset classes? What about FX? Forestry Carbon offsets perhaps? Volatility (via VIX options) even?

P-schemes, show some characteristics that are reserved and used to define these "new-school" asset classes which include but are not limited to:

- unique risk & return profiles w/Beta > 0

- low correlation w/traditional asset classes

- similar form & structure (business model)

But it's purely academic. One might argue that a portfolio manager would be crazy to knowingly allocate any portion of managed assets to a pyramid scheme, my reasoning is, that there are people who have profited immensely from P-schemes (before they blew up) and it wasn't just the founders of the scheme or pilfering accountants either.

as @muganda mentions, it's all about knowledge & timing... getting in, taking profits and making your exit before the house of cards comes tumbling down.

Here's something interesting too. Jim Simon's RenTec had invested w/Madoff (Total Return Swaps) and strongly suspected he was a fraud from as early as 2003. Their response was to only cut their investment by half ....

Links
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Harris_Simons
http://www.telegraph.co....fraudsters.html?image=8
http://www.zerohedge.com...ness-and-other-questions
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