Cargo volumes on the SGR have been on a steady increase in the last few months.. last data reported was for week ending 18th April with 2917 TEUs transported via train.
31-Jan 438
07-Feb 671
21-Feb 1145
28-Feb 1168
07-Mar 1813
21-Mar 1943
29-Mar 2008
18-Apr 2917
This is data from KPA site
SGR latest data.. Cargo evacuated via trucks has reduced as more importers turn to SGR..
The implications:
1. With shipping lines signing agreements with KPA/KR to have Nairobi as final destination on Bill of Lading, Importers who choose this option only have to think of last mile. I stand to be corrected, but i believe the cost of the SGR aspect will be included as part of shipping costs, and hence less headache for the importer. Hence importer pays shipping line or their agent and gets goods in ICD. Mombasa becomes transparent to importer, same way they really dont know if the goods were transhipped in Dubai or Singapore.
2. For those in trucking, ferrying containers from Mombasa to Nairobi is currently not a viable business, once all the inefficiencies on SGR are addressed. The writing is on the wall.. Adapt to last mile from ICD or Mombasa. I don't see why a Nairobi based importer would choose to transport goods via road once all the inefficiencies have been dealt with and the current SGR rates persist.
However, the SGR rates currently are designed to be very low to attract people to the SGR. Am sure once SGR get enough cargo, the importers and C&F agents will have systemized the SGR, and am 100% sure SGR rates will go back to the initial proposed rates of 50-60K per 40 foot container. Add last mile part, the cost will almost be same as that of a truck from MSA to NRB. This is the long term part, where the rail and truckers can co-exist, with the rail taking most of the traffic.
3. Expect most of the Mombasa C&F agents who deal with containers to shift their offices to Nairobi, and leave skeletal staff in Mombasa.
4. For most truckers, a shift towards transit cargo may be the way to go. This may bring down prices for transit cargo, e.g. Kampala rates may go down to 200K from 230-240K currently charged from MSA.
@essyk - how do you see things from the user point of view?