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KenolKobil 2018 and beyond
Spikes
#21 Posted : Friday, March 09, 2018 1:08:08 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,451
Location: Mombasa
peep wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
Realtreaty wrote:
How does KK fair in Bitumen supply in construction industry? How much revenue emanates from this type of business given the govt want to buy locally as we as well know KK is majority locally owned.

Far more how is the gas industry in this company with K-gas growing too fast. What can they do to endear Kenyans buy gas from them. I remember Total went far to other company staff cooperatives to encourage them buy on Coop loan.

Again i feel KK should as well think of a Bonus this time 1/10.




No need for bonus as that will dilute the company value.
The current NAV is ksh 7.40 per share against the current price of 16.
If you create more shares further in the name of bonus,that will be lowering the value further.

A bonus can't lower the value of a stock. Its a transfer of money from retained earnings to issued stock, both owned by the same person. Like moving cash from the left pocket to the right one.


@Ebenyo is right to contend that the value of the company is greatly affected by bonus shares. Bonus shares reduce funds that can be applied for expansionary programs.
Ignorance of the victim is big business for the villain.
Ericsson
#22 Posted : Friday, March 09, 2018 10:06:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 5,317
Location: NAIROBI
Spikes wrote:
peep wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
Realtreaty wrote:
How does KK fair in Bitumen supply in construction industry? How much revenue emanates from this type of business given the govt want to buy locally as we as well know KK is majority locally owned.

Far more how is the gas industry in this company with K-gas growing too fast. What can they do to endear Kenyans buy gas from them. I remember Total went far to other company staff cooperatives to encourage them buy on Coop loan.

Again i feel KK should as well think of a Bonus this time 1/10.




No need for bonus as that will dilute the company value.
The current NAV is ksh 7.40 per share against the current price of 16.
If you create more shares further in the name of bonus,that will be lowering the value further.

A bonus can't lower the value of a stock. Its a transfer of money from retained earnings to issued stock, both owned by the same person. Like moving cash from the left pocket to the right one.


@Ebenyo is right to contend that the value of the company is greatly affected by bonus shares. Bonus shares reduce funds that can be applied for expansionary programs.


Bonus shares do not reduce funds that can be applied for expansionary programs.Some companies give bonus shares instead of dividends so that they can use the cash money meant for dividend for expansion
Ebenyo
#23 Posted : Friday, March 09, 2018 10:18:03 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,285
Location: Kitale
peep wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
Realtreaty wrote:
How does KK fair in Bitumen supply in construction industry? How much revenue emanates from this type of business given the govt want to buy locally as we as well know KK is majority locally owned.

Far more how is the gas industry in this company with K-gas growing too fast. What can they do to endear Kenyans buy gas from them. I remember Total went far to other company staff cooperatives to encourage them buy on Coop loan.

Again i feel KK should as well think of a Bonus this time 1/10.




No need for bonus as that will dilute the company value.
The current NAV is ksh 7.40 per share against the current price of 16.
If you create more shares further in the name of bonus,that will be lowering the value further.

A bonus can't lower the value of a stock. Its a transfer of money from retained earnings to issued stock, both owned by the same person. Like moving cash from the left pocket to the right one.


It will lower the NAV per share.From the current of 7.40 to 6.70.Against the current price of 16.80,KK will be some of the most expensive shares in NSE.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
Ebenyo
#24 Posted : Friday, March 09, 2018 10:19:40 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,285
Location: Kitale
peep wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
Realtreaty wrote:
How does KK fair in Bitumen supply in construction industry? How much revenue emanates from this type of business given the govt want to buy locally as we as well know KK is majority locally owned.

Far more how is the gas industry in this company with K-gas growing too fast. What can they do to endear Kenyans buy gas from them. I remember Total went far to other company staff cooperatives to encourage them buy on Coop loan.

Again i feel KK should as well think of a Bonus this time 1/10.




No need for bonus as that will dilute the company value.
The current NAV is ksh 7.40 per share against the current price of 16.
If you create more shares further in the name of bonus,that will be lowering the value further.

A bonus can't lower the value of a stock. Its a transfer of money from retained earnings to issued stock, both owned by the same person. Like moving cash from the left pocket to the right one.


It will lower the NAV per share.From the current of 7.40 to 6.70.Against the current price of 16.80,KK will be some of the most expensive shares in NSE.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
Ebenyo
#25 Posted : Friday, March 09, 2018 10:21:12 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,285
Location: Kitale
peep wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
Realtreaty wrote:
How does KK fair in Bitumen supply in construction industry? How much revenue emanates from this type of business given the govt want to buy locally as we as well know KK is majority locally owned.

Far more how is the gas industry in this company with K-gas growing too fast. What can they do to endear Kenyans buy gas from them. I remember Total went far to other company staff cooperatives to encourage them buy on Coop loan.

Again i feel KK should as well think of a Bonus this time 1/10.




No need for bonus as that will dilute the company value.
The current NAV is ksh 7.40 per share against the current price of 16.
If you create more shares further in the name of bonus,that will be lowering the value further.

A bonus can't lower the value of a stock. Its a transfer of money from retained earnings to issued stock, both owned by the same person. Like moving cash from the left pocket to the right one.


It will lower the NAV per share.From the current of 7.40 to 6.70.Against the current price of 16.80,KK will be some of the most expensive shares in NSE.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
VituVingiSana
#26 Posted : Friday, March 09, 2018 11:44:51 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 14,555
Location: Nairobi
Ebenyo wrote:
peep wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
Realtreaty wrote:
How does KK fair in Bitumen supply in construction industry? How much revenue emanates from this type of business given the govt want to buy locally as we as well know KK is majority locally owned.

Far more how is the gas industry in this company with K-gas growing too fast. What can they do to endear Kenyans buy gas from them. I remember Total went far to other company staff cooperatives to encourage them buy on Coop loan.

Again i feel KK should as well think of a Bonus this time 1/10.




No need for bonus as that will dilute the company value.
The current NAV is ksh 7.40 per share against the current price of 16.
If you create more shares further in the name of bonus,that will be lowering the value further.

A bonus can't lower the value of a stock. Its a transfer of money from retained earnings to issued stock, both owned by the same person. Like moving cash from the left pocket to the right one.


It will lower the NAV per share.From the current of 7.40 to 6.70.Against the current price of 16.80,KK will be some of the most expensive shares in NSE.

NAV is a core concept in fundamental investing BUT not the only concept nor the most important one.
1) KK has many properties/assets stated at historical cost AND read the Financial Statements to understand that point. It would be helpful to have a revaluation done and put in the Notes even if the "revaluation" isn't included in the Balance Sheet.
2) Read Warren Buffett's letters. Cash generation [& moat] are important. Can KK keep on selling fuel at a (profitable) decent margin? Can it continue to leverage its network and connections [OTS] to reduce costs? And increase volumes?
3) A bonus does not increase/decrease a firm's INTRINSIC value BUT it does affect "perception" by investors.
4) A bonus does not reduce/increase the availability of funds for expansion. What @ericsson said is that when a firm doesn't want to pay a CASH dividend, it may issue a bonus. It's a sleight of hand to keep noisy shareholders happy.

For KK:
- Solid (profitable) cash generating machine.
- Undervalued assets [needs a revaluation] as shown on the books.
- Growth [not double digits but a respectable growth] in volumes/profits.
- KK shares, IMHO, are cheap if it can make 2.50 in 2018 [FY 2017 has all sorts of one-off provisions]. That's a PER of 7
- Finally, there's been an expectation of a takeover. At a significant premium, I hope.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ebenyo
#27 Posted : Friday, March 09, 2018 2:03:04 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,285
Location: Kitale
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
peep wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
Realtreaty wrote:
How does KK fair in Bitumen supply in construction industry? How much revenue emanates from this type of business given the govt want to buy locally as we as well know KK is majority locally owned.

Far more how is the gas industry in this company with K-gas growing too fast. What can they do to endear Kenyans buy gas from them. I remember Total went far to other company staff cooperatives to encourage them buy on Coop loan.

Again i feel KK should as well think of a Bonus this time 1/10.




No need for bonus as that will dilute the company value.
The current NAV is ksh 7.40 per share against the current price of 16.
If you create more shares further in the name of bonus,that will be lowering the value further.

A bonus can't lower the value of a stock. Its a transfer of money from retained earnings to issued stock, both owned by the same person. Like moving cash from the left pocket to the right one.


It will lower the NAV per share.From the current of 7.40 to 6.70.Against the current price of 16.80,KK will be some of the most expensive shares in NSE.

NAV is a core concept in fundamental investing BUT not the only concept nor the most important one.
1) KK has many properties/assets stated at historical cost AND read the Financial Statements to understand that point. It would be helpful to have a revaluation done and put in the Notes even if the "revaluation" isn't included in the Balance Sheet.
2) Read Warren Buffett's letters. Cash generation [& moat] are important. Can KK keep on selling fuel at a (profitable) decent margin? Can it continue to leverage its network and connections [OTS] to reduce costs? And increase volumes?
3) A bonus does not increase/decrease a firm's INTRINSIC value BUT it does affect "perception" by investors.
4) A bonus does not reduce/increase the availability of funds for expansion. What @ericsson said is that when a firm doesn't want to pay a CASH dividend, it may issue a bonus. It's a sleight of hand to keep noisy shareholders happy.

For KK:
- Solid (profitable) cash generating machine.
- Undervalued assets [needs a revaluation] as shown on the books.
- Growth [not double digits but a respectable growth] in volumes/profits.
- KK shares, IMHO, are cheap if it can make 2.50 in 2018 [FY 2017 has all sorts of one-off provisions]. That's a PER of 7
- Finally, there's been an expectation of a takeover. At a significant premium, I hope.


Thanks for extensive explanation.
Carbacid has been doing revaluation in their reports.I have been uncomfortable with it, but your explanation has now made me see a point.
I got the importance of NAV recently when seabord put a bid for unga.
I decided to look at the NAV of all the counters in my portfolio.I was shocked to find 70% are over valued while 30% are undervalued by the market.
Im now very careful with my buying as my aim is to beat both the market and NAV.
I entered KK last year after i became uncomfortable with ownership structure of Total.
Your explanation means the current balance sheet does not reflect the true NAV of KK.I may agree with you as CMA recently ordered for an independent valuation of UNGA despite the available financial reports.Lets hope the report will be made public as to the true value of UNGA.
For long term investors,NAV is what you get when the company crumble.I like a company that grows it Y.O.Y. KCB grew its sharehoders funds by 10% and i like that.
I like to pass to my children and grand children great companies that will take care of them when im long gone.



Towards the goal of financial freedom
VituVingiSana
#28 Posted : Friday, March 09, 2018 5:09:04 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 14,555
Location: Nairobi
@Ebenyo - When a company crumbles, the NAV is whittled away as the rot comes out.
Look at KQ's NAV from 2011 to 2017.
Uchumi, ARM, etc...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ebenyo
#29 Posted : Sunday, March 11, 2018 4:05:24 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,285
Location: Kitale
What was wrong with wazua? Two days without access.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
Ericsson
#30 Posted : Sunday, March 11, 2018 4:51:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 5,317
Location: NAIROBI
Ebenyo wrote:
What was wrong with wazua? Two days without access.


Hawakutaka posts mingi
Ebenyo
#31 Posted : Sunday, March 11, 2018 5:31:59 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,285
Location: Kitale
Ericsson wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
What was wrong with wazua? Two days without access.


Hawakutaka posts mingi


Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly mali inatafutwa kwa bidii.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
Realtreaty
#32 Posted : Sunday, March 11, 2018 7:24:14 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/16/2011
Posts: 2,006
Ebenyo wrote:
What was wrong with wazua? Two days without access.




Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Password ilipotea baada ya Raila kuingia Harambee house kumwona President Uhuru. "Mwenda tezi na omo marejeo ni ngamani"
Aguytrying
#33 Posted : Sunday, March 11, 2018 11:09:14 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,013
VituVingiSana wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Kk is doing well. I only wish they could attract customers like total and shell do, I find their stations except a few unattractive. However financial performance, management is top notch.
Remember we are back to takeover price range. With Ohana at the helm were in safe hands

As a KK shareholder and customer... I admit, KK have the UGLIEST stations out of the Big 3. d'oh! d'oh! d'oh!
Total and Shell have stations that are bright, attractive, warm...


Glad I'm not the only one to notice this! Exactly my point
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
VituVingiSana
#34 Posted : Monday, March 12, 2018 1:04:57 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 14,555
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Kk is doing well. I only wish they could attract customers like total and shell do, I find their stations except a few unattractive. However financial performance, management is top notch.
Remember we are back to takeover price range. With Ohana at the helm were in safe hands

As a KK shareholder and customer... I admit, KK have the UGLIEST stations out of the Big 3. d'oh! d'oh! d'oh!
Total and Shell have stations that are bright, attractive, warm...


Glad I'm not the only one to notice this! Exactly my point

Let's call a spade a spade! d'oh! d'oh! d'oh!
Someone told be the "blue & red" is also unappealing.
I am OK with the colors but the stations need to be spruced up.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ebenyo
#35 Posted : Monday, March 12, 2018 7:55:37 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,285
Location: Kitale
VituVingiSana wrote:
@Ebenyo - When a company crumbles, the NAV is whittled away as the rot comes out.
Look at KQ's NAV from 2011 to 2017.
Uchumi, ARM, etc...


That emphasise the importance of good and credible management.
Its bad management that will bring out the rot while good management will just bring out the good.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
watesh
#36 Posted : Monday, March 12, 2018 12:21:01 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 683
Location: Kenya
Aguytrying wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Kk is doing well. I only wish they could attract customers like total and shell do, I find their stations except a few unattractive. However financial performance, management is top notch.
Remember we are back to takeover price range. With Ohana at the helm were in safe hands

As a KK shareholder and customer... I admit, KK have the UGLIEST stations out of the Big 3. d'oh! d'oh! d'oh!
Total and Shell have stations that are bright, attractive, warm...


Glad I'm not the only one to notice this! Exactly my point

I FULLY AGREE....This always pops up in my mind EVERY time i pass their stations...they need some serious renovations ASAP!!!
Total and Shell always have customers lined up in their stations while KK are mostly empty.
Kausha
#37 Posted : Tuesday, March 13, 2018 7:23:55 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 801
murchr
#38 Posted : Tuesday, March 13, 2018 8:13:40 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 13,307
Kausha wrote:
http://www.kenolkobil.com/uploads/1/3/3/9/13398397/kenolkobil_audited_group_results_2017.pdf



Asante - Results almost flat
Volume growth - 42%
PBT 3.68Bn against 3.53Bn
Fin div - 30cents total div 60cents in the year.

"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Ericsson
#39 Posted : Tuesday, March 13, 2018 8:41:58 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 5,317
Location: NAIROBI
They have done well
Realtreaty
#40 Posted : Tuesday, March 13, 2018 8:47:06 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/16/2011
Posts: 2,006
Decent results.

This shows the capacity to grow

Very soon this stock will break the under 20 like Total.

From Loss making to excellent profits

Next FY 18 it may yield 75 Cents (30 cents interim and 45 cents final)Drool Drool
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