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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
winmak
#2821 Posted : Tuesday, March 13, 2018 10:19:44 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/1/2007
Posts: 390
Location: Nakuru
I see a lot of correlation=causality in these arguments
For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases ~ WB
mlennyma
#2822 Posted : Wednesday, March 14, 2018 1:59:58 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 5,872
Location: nairobi
Bank stocks have so far made people smile,the narrative here was bank stocks won't do well,wazua can be misleading if you take words like law
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
AndyC
#2823 Posted : Wednesday, March 14, 2018 3:37:46 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 4/21/2015
Posts: 77
mlennyma wrote:
Bank stocks have so far made people smile,the narrative here was bank stocks won't do well,wazua can be misleading if you take words like law

Some bank stocks. Is there anything to smile about in NIC, NBK and StanChart?
mlennyma
#2824 Posted : Wednesday, March 14, 2018 4:08:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 5,872
Location: nairobi
AndyC wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Bank stocks have so far made people smile,the narrative here was bank stocks won't do well,wazua can be misleading if you take words like law

Some bank stocks. Is there anything to smile about in NIC, NBK and StanChart?

Nic is next wait for 45-50
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Angelica _ann
#2825 Posted : Wednesday, March 14, 2018 4:14:15 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 9,708
mlennyma wrote:
AndyC wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Bank stocks have so far made people smile,the narrative here was bank stocks won't do well,wazua can be misleading if you take words like law

Some bank stocks. Is there anything to smile about in NIC, NBK and StanChart?

Nic is next wait for 45-50


You are forgetting when KCB was at 60, NIC was at 70+ relax!!!
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
obiero
#2826 Posted : Wednesday, March 14, 2018 8:22:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 10,937
Location: nairobi
Angelica _ann wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
AndyC wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Bank stocks have so far made people smile,the narrative here was bank stocks won't do well,wazua can be misleading if you take words like law

Some bank stocks. Is there anything to smile about in NIC, NBK and StanChart?

Nic is next wait for 45-50


You are forgetting when KCB was at 60, NIC was at 70+ relax!!!

The current ‘rally’ shall injure some.. Look at it, why would a share trade at higher value with flat or even worse decline in both NII & PBT.. The NFI game is heating up and so far Safaricom is king. Banks valuations are largely false right now, across the tiers
DISCLAIMER: @obiero, MBA-MIS, CISA. Opinionated, owner of www.winda.co.ke. Aims to be factual
obiero
#2827 Posted : Wednesday, March 14, 2018 8:25:37 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 10,937
Location: nairobi
Angelica _ann wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
AndyC wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Bank stocks have so far made people smile,the narrative here was bank stocks won't do well,wazua can be misleading if you take words like law

Some bank stocks. Is there anything to smile about in NIC, NBK and StanChart?

Nic is next wait for 45-50


You are forgetting when KCB was at 60, NIC was at 70+ relax!!!

The current ‘rally’ shall injure some.. Look at it, why would a share trade at higher value with flat or even worse decline in both NII & PBT.. The NFI game is heating up and so far Safaricom is king. Banks valuations are largely false right now, across the tiers
DISCLAIMER: @obiero, MBA-MIS, CISA. Opinionated, owner of www.winda.co.ke. Aims to be factual
lochaz-index
#2828 Posted : Wednesday, March 14, 2018 9:40:15 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 929
obiero wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
AndyC wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Bank stocks have so far made people smile,the narrative here was bank stocks won't do well,wazua can be misleading if you take words like law

Some bank stocks. Is there anything to smile about in NIC, NBK and StanChart?

Nic is next wait for 45-50


You are forgetting when KCB was at 60, NIC was at 70+ relax!!!

The current ‘rally’ shall injure some.. Look at it, why would a share trade at higher value with flat or even worse decline in both NII & PBT.. The NFI game is heating up and so far Safaricom is king. Banks valuations are largely false right now, across the tiers

Agreed. Those chasing prices are headed for extremely choppy waters. The guys who bought financials as a fear play during the rate cap sell-off have made a pretty penny. Extrapolating that rally to the period after the rate cap is lifted is erroneous.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
obiero
#2829 Posted : Wednesday, March 14, 2018 10:38:06 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 10,937
Location: nairobi
lochaz-index wrote:
obiero wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
AndyC wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Bank stocks have so far made people smile,the narrative here was bank stocks won't do well,wazua can be misleading if you take words like law

Some bank stocks. Is there anything to smile about in NIC, NBK and StanChart?

Nic is next wait for 45-50


You are forgetting when KCB was at 60, NIC was at 70+ relax!!!

The current ‘rally’ shall injure some.. Look at it, why would a share trade at higher value with flat or even worse decline in both NII & PBT.. The NFI game is heating up and so far Safaricom is king. Banks valuations are largely false right now, across the tiers

Agreed. Those chasing prices are headed for extremely choppy waters. The guys who bought financials as a fear play during the rate cap sell-off have made a pretty penny. Extrapolating that rally to the period after the rate cap is lifted is erroneous.

Erroneous and suicidal at the same damn time
DISCLAIMER: @obiero, MBA-MIS, CISA. Opinionated, owner of www.winda.co.ke. Aims to be factual
lochaz-index
#2830 Posted : Tuesday, March 20, 2018 3:31:52 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 929
NASI hit an all time high yesterday at 186.6 with the NSE20 checking in at 3840 inches below a critical resistance point @3850. I think we have attained the March high as previously alluded to. Don't see much upside from here. Calling for a top. Bulls should get concerned if the downleg breaches 3450.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
mlennyma
#2831 Posted : Tuesday, March 20, 2018 3:38:24 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 5,872
Location: nairobi
lochaz-index wrote:
NASI hit an all time high yesterday at 186.6 with the NSE20 checking in at 3840 inches below a critical resistance point @3850. I think we have attained the March high as previously alluded to. Don't see much upside from here. Calling for a top. Bulls should get concerned if the downleg breaches 3450.

I have a feeling backed by instinct 2018 will be good for many stocks
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
VituVingiSana
#2832 Posted : Tuesday, March 20, 2018 5:37:14 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 15,061
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
AndyC wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Bank stocks have so far made people smile,the narrative here was bank stocks won't do well,wazua can be misleading if you take words like law

Some bank stocks. Is there anything to smile about in NIC, NBK and StanChart?

Nic is next wait for 45-50


You are forgetting when KCB was at 60, NIC was at 70+ relax!!!

The current ‘rally’ shall injure some.. Look at it, why would a share trade at higher value with flat or even worse decline in both NII & PBT.. The NFI game is heating up and so far Safaricom is king. Banks valuations are largely false right now, across the tiers

Ignore the share prices for the discussion below.

I expect most (not all eg NBK) banks will have a better 2018 and a solid 2019 as far as the EPS/PAT is concerned and NPLs:Loans ratio will start dropping. CETERIS PARIBUS.

Ironically, the "horrible" interest rate caps and IFRS 9 forced banks to re-look at their loans/borrowers/systems and adjustments were made.

Banks are more judicious about lending (KYC, credit scoring), have invested a lot more in (safe but high yielding) GoK paper, reduced overheads (closed branches) and systems/processes are being improved to reduce costs.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
obiero
#2833 Posted : Tuesday, March 20, 2018 9:25:28 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 10,937
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
AndyC wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Bank stocks have so far made people smile,the narrative here was bank stocks won't do well,wazua can be misleading if you take words like law

Some bank stocks. Is there anything to smile about in NIC, NBK and StanChart?

Nic is next wait for 45-50


You are forgetting when KCB was at 60, NIC was at 70+ relax!!!

The current ‘rally’ shall injure some.. Look at it, why would a share trade at higher value with flat or even worse decline in both NII & PBT.. The NFI game is heating up and so far Safaricom is king. Banks valuations are largely false right now, across the tiers

Ignore the share prices for the discussion below.

I expect most (not all eg NBK) banks will have a better 2018 and a solid 2019 as far as the EPS/PAT is concerned and NPLs:Loans ratio will start dropping. CETERIS PARIBUS.

Ironically, the "horrible" interest rate caps and IFRS 9 forced banks to re-look at their loans/borrowers/systems and adjustments were made.

Banks are more judicious about lending (KYC, credit scoring), have invested a lot more in (safe but high yielding) GoK paper, reduced overheads (closed branches) and systems/processes are being improved to reduce costs.

Without lending banks are not going to report decent increase in profitability.. The GoK paper investments are shortism measures
DISCLAIMER: @obiero, MBA-MIS, CISA. Opinionated, owner of www.winda.co.ke. Aims to be factual
VituVingiSana
#2834 Posted : Wednesday, March 21, 2018 12:53:11 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 15,061
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
AndyC wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Bank stocks have so far made people smile,the narrative here was bank stocks won't do well,wazua can be misleading if you take words like law

Some bank stocks. Is there anything to smile about in NIC, NBK and StanChart?

Nic is next wait for 45-50


You are forgetting when KCB was at 60, NIC was at 70+ relax!!!

The current ‘rally’ shall injure some.. Look at it, why would a share trade at higher value with flat or even worse decline in both NII & PBT.. The NFI game is heating up and so far Safaricom is king. Banks valuations are largely false right now, across the tiers

Ignore the share prices for the discussion below.

I expect most (not all eg NBK) banks will have a better 2018 and a solid 2019 as far as the EPS/PAT is concerned and NPLs:Loans ratio will start dropping. CETERIS PARIBUS.

Ironically, the "horrible" interest rate caps and IFRS 9 forced banks to re-look at their loans/borrowers/systems and adjustments were made.

Banks are more judicious about lending (KYC, credit scoring), have invested a lot more in (safe but high yielding) GoK paper, reduced overheads (closed branches) and systems/processes are being improved to reduce costs.

Without lending banks are not going to report decent increase in profitability.. The GoK paper investments are shortism measures
That's OK in an uncertain environment. If a bank perceives lending to non-GoK institutions is riskier on a risk adjusted basis then it should continue lending to GoK.

When Wanjiku's risk-adjusted return [including fees and commissions] > GoK then start lending to Wanjiku.

We often do the same in our investments. When we think we can get more from T-Bonds/Bills vs investing in stocks/land/business, we do so. When we see a possibility of stocks outperforming other assets, we shift our resources.

In an uncertain environment, a bank's primary goal should be to PRESERVE customer deposits... A bank can risk its own funds but should be prudent with depositors' funds.

Banks continued judicious lending to "Wanjiku" since she provides other sources of income eg commitment fees, trade finance fees, fees on debit cards, fees on all sorts of other services, etc.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
wukan
#2835 Posted : Wednesday, March 21, 2018 1:46:50 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 902
lochaz-index wrote:
NASI hit an all time high yesterday at 186.6 with the NSE20 checking in at 3840 inches below a critical resistance point @3850. I think we have attained the March high as previously alluded to. Don't see much upside from here. Calling for a top. Bulls should get concerned if the downleg breaches 3450.


The macros point to different scenarios. CBK is pushing hard on monetary easing with all the risks. Treasury pushing on the fiscal consolidation while reforming the rate cap. Let's wait and see if the bulls will refuse.
mufasa
#2836 Posted : Thursday, March 22, 2018 7:42:42 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/15/2008
Posts: 140
mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Safaricom. Circle wave ((iii)) ended at about 30.00. Expecting a correction for circle wave ((iv)) to level targets 24.80s and 23.00s . Thereafter a move above 30.00s to complete circle wave ((v)).


Quote:
The Safaricom share that has recently hit highs of Sh30 at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) retains a double-digit percentage upside on the back of expected revenue growth from mobile money and data, analysts at ABC Capital say in a new note.

The investment bank estimates a forward fair value price of up to Sh35 for the stock, which at a price of Sh29 last week would represent a premium of 20.7 per cent.

ABC estimates that by 2020, M-Pesa could rise above voice to be the largest source of revenue for the telco, whose net profit for the six months ended September 2017 grew by 9.5 per cent to Sh26.2 billion.


BD LINK

These out of the world projections always come near the end of major bull markets. Strong projections for Safcom are now happening just when it is about to face a major bear market since its listing.


Well, Safaricom split isn't happening, at least not the way most imagined.
T-Kash is another way to slice it up.
Safcom could be on its last bull run for a while
Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
mkate_nusu
#2837 Posted : Friday, March 30, 2018 2:11:54 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/30/2016
Posts: 326
Location: Kayole
@mnandii, any chart patterns to trade on next week?
#aftereasterspending
KEGN, KPLC, KQ, SCOM
wukan
#2838 Posted : Thursday, April 19, 2018 11:17:35 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 902
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
NASI hit an all time high yesterday at 186.6 with the NSE20 checking in at 3840 inches below a critical resistance point @3850. I think we have attained the March high as previously alluded to. Don't see much upside from here. Calling for a top. Bulls should get concerned if the downleg breaches 3450.


The macros point to different scenarios. CBK is pushing hard on monetary easing with all the risks. Treasury pushing on the fiscal consolidation while reforming the rate cap. Let's wait and see if the bulls will refuse.


The bulls refused. Nairobi 20 decreased 26 points or 0.69% to 3745 on Wednesday April 18 from 3771. 3676 is the area to watch next. Safaricom is taking us gently down the streamsmile
Ericsson
#2839 Posted : Thursday, April 19, 2018 11:29:59 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 5,875
Location: NAIROBI
wukan wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
NASI hit an all time high yesterday at 186.6 with the NSE20 checking in at 3840 inches below a critical resistance point @3850. I think we have attained the March high as previously alluded to. Don't see much upside from here. Calling for a top. Bulls should get concerned if the downleg breaches 3450.


The macros point to different scenarios. CBK is pushing hard on monetary easing with all the risks. Treasury pushing on the fiscal consolidation while reforming the rate cap. Let's wait and see if the bulls will refuse.


The bulls refused. Nairobi 20 decreased 26 points or 0.69% to 3745 on Wednesday April 18 from 3771. 3676 is the area to watch next. Safaricom is taking us gently down the streamsmile


Market correction across all counters apart from a few which are resisting
lochaz-index
#2840 Posted : Monday, April 23, 2018 7:30:02 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 929
Ericsson wrote:
wukan wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
NASI hit an all time high yesterday at 186.6 with the NSE20 checking in at 3840 inches below a critical resistance point @3850. I think we have attained the March high as previously alluded to. Don't see much upside from here. Calling for a top. Bulls should get concerned if the downleg breaches 3450.


The macros point to different scenarios. CBK is pushing hard on monetary easing with all the risks. Treasury pushing on the fiscal consolidation while reforming the rate cap. Let's wait and see if the bulls will refuse.


The bulls refused. Nairobi 20 decreased 26 points or 0.69% to 3745 on Wednesday April 18 from 3771. 3676 is the area to watch next. Safaricom is taking us gently down the streamsmile


Market correction across all counters apart from a few which are resisting

These rock and roll type of rallies don't last long. Remember the one in 2010 after GFC...hard and fast...I tried chasing prices but couldn't then came the drop soon after. This one had all the characteristics of the 2010 rally down to a tee. Felt toppish after the August top which was followed by a consolidation (for six months) then the bottom falls out. Not to mention the bull was mainly pushed by banking stocks plus safaricom and all had heavy legs. Waiting to see how deep the correction will be which is mostly going to be determined by the severity of the fiscal crisis.

ION, 10yr UST is about to vault past the 3% mark, KES touched sub-100 intra-day(with a record reserve ammo to boot), crude is toppish at >$70pb and the USD is just coming out of a multi-year low. Reversals abound.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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