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Kenya Economy Watch
obiero
#1561 Posted : Tuesday, February 27, 2018 7:24:07 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 10,079
Location: nairobi
Angelica _ann wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Kenya economy grew by 4.8% in 2017


Baba smile smile smile

I am interested in finding out how many jobs were created in the stated year
COOP 3,500; KCB 1,300 KCB; KQ 95,000
Ericsson
#1562 Posted : Wednesday, February 28, 2018 4:16:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 5,317
Location: NAIROBI
Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) Commissioner-General John Njiraini, whose term comes to an end on March 3 2018 has been offered one-year extension of contract despite attaining the mandatory retirement age of 60 years on December 20, 2017.
Ericsson
#1563 Posted : Thursday, March 01, 2018 6:50:27 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 5,317
Location: NAIROBI
Kenya finance minister says good time to revisit commercial rate caps
Kenya’s finance minister said on Thursday that it was a good time to revisit a cap on commercial lending rates, blamed by the International Monetary Fund for sluggish credit growth to the private sector.

Reacting to public complaints about high lending rates in Kenya, the government capped bank interest rates at four percentage points above the benchmark central bank rate in 2016. It also set a minimum deposit rate of 70 percent of the policy rate, which stands at 10 percent.

The rate caps forced banks to stop lending to customers who are perceived as risky. Bank executives blame the caps for sluggish private sector credit growth, which slowed to 2.4 percent in the year to December. The central bank says the ideal rate is 12-15 percent.

“It is a good time for stakeholders to revisit this issue,” said Finance Minister Henry Rotich. “We are working on a package of reforms which if we discuss we will get a way forward,” he added without giving details.

Rotich’s comments at a press conference come a week after the chair of the Kenyan parliament’s influential budget committee said there was a case for altering a cap on commercial lending rates.

The central bank opposed the caps before they were imposed and last month the International Monetary Fund asked the government to remove them

https://af.reuters.com/a...africaTech/idAFL8N1QB5KP
Ericsson
#1564 Posted : Thursday, March 08, 2018 9:05:14 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 5,317
Location: NAIROBI
IMF says Kenya Govt has requested for a 6-month extension of the $1.5B credit facility subject to Rate Cap Review
wukan
#1565 Posted : Thursday, March 08, 2018 10:32:54 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 817
Ericsson wrote:
IMF says Kenya Govt has requested for a 6-month extension of the $1.5B credit facility subject to Rate Cap Review


Damage to SME due to rate cap is massive. Won't be much credit demand even if it's reviewed. Hard to imagine it had to take IMF intervention for GoK to see the obvious.
aemathenge
#1566 Posted : Thursday, March 08, 2018 12:27:11 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/18/2008
Posts: 2,952
Location: Kerugoya
wukan wrote:
[quote=Ericsson]Hard to imagine it had to take IMF intervention for GoK to see the obvious.


GoK ??

If I remember my 1979 old-system primary school civics lessons, there are three arms of Government in Kenia.

The Executive.

The Legislature.

The Judiciary.

Yes, the Executive can discern the "obvious".

But can the Legislature, who passed the law and forced the Executive to comply?

Can the Judiciary? Will they declare any attempts to fiddle with the Njomo Bill unconstitutional?

Just a thought. Just a thought.
lochaz-index
#1567 Posted : Thursday, March 08, 2018 12:35:51 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 880
wukan wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
IMF says Kenya Govt has requested for a 6-month extension of the $1.5B credit facility subject to Rate Cap Review


Damage to SME due to rate cap is massive. Won't be much credit demand even if it's reviewed. Hard to imagine it had to take IMF intervention for GoK to see the obvious.

Reviewing the rate cap won't solve much. I don't expect credit growth to rally much after the anticipated repeal for the simple reason that credit started shrinking in July 2015 - more than a year before the rate cap. Systemic risk won't dissipate merely coz of a piece of legislation. Liquidity preference will still be the default setting for banks in addition the govt is past a point of no return when it comes to deficit management aka it must continue its borrowing spree locally to stay afloat.

KE managed to squeeze its eurobond 2.0 before the March window slammed shut beyond which it would have been an extremely costly affair. External funding will be a very tricky endeavour going forward with international interest rates inching higher by the day. As for the NSE, I think it will continue its bearish structure in April as the bull window comes to a close by end of this month once the hype around the rate cap repeal dies down. Will be interesting to see where it finally bottoms out when the dust settles by late 2019, my bet is sub 2000.

The KE economy's waterloo seems slated for H2 2018. Increased taxes, more crowding out by govt, retrenchments in the public sector, stalling of GoK projects, downgrade of KE (pulls down banks with it especially banks with an inordinate exposure to govt dealings like KCB) etc. However, if the KES loses ground early, the show will start soon enough. Replay of the 1990's in the making.

Banks still have to contend with rising NPL's and IFRS9 and that will take some time to flush out and stabilize their houses.

The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
Ericsson
#1568 Posted : Thursday, March 08, 2018 1:11:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 5,317
Location: NAIROBI
lochaz-index wrote:
wukan wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
IMF says Kenya Govt has requested for a 6-month extension of the $1.5B credit facility subject to Rate Cap Review


Damage to SME due to rate cap is massive. Won't be much credit demand even if it's reviewed. Hard to imagine it had to take IMF intervention for GoK to see the obvious.

Reviewing the rate cap won't solve much. I don't expect credit growth to rally much after the anticipated repeal for the simple reason that credit started shrinking in July 2015 - more than a year before the rate cap. Systemic risk won't dissipate merely coz of a piece of legislation. Liquidity preference will still be the default setting for banks in addition the govt is past a point of no return when it comes to deficit management aka it must continue its borrowing spree locally to stay afloat.

KE managed to squeeze its eurobond 2.0 before the March window slammed shut beyond which it would have been an extremely costly affair. External funding will be a very tricky endeavour going forward with international interest rates inching higher by the day. As for the NSE, I think it will continue its bearish structure in April as the bull window comes to a close by end of this month once the hype around the rate cap repeal dies down. Will be interesting to see where it finally bottoms out when the dust settles by late 2019, my bet is sub 2000.

The KE economy's waterloo seems slated for H2 2018. Increased taxes, more crowding out by govt, retrenchments in the public sector, stalling of GoK projects, downgrade of KE (pulls down banks with it especially banks with an inordinate exposure to govt dealings like KCB) etc. However, if the KES loses ground early, the show will start soon enough. Replay of the 1990's in the making.

Banks still have to contend with rising NPL's and IFRS9 and that will take some time to flush out and stabilize their houses.


IMF are here to mid wife our economy similar to what they are doing in Ghana,Egypt,Zambia,Mozambique.
After that all will be well though the process will be painful
lochaz-index
#1569 Posted : Thursday, March 08, 2018 2:10:22 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 880
Ericsson wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
wukan wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
IMF says Kenya Govt has requested for a 6-month extension of the $1.5B credit facility subject to Rate Cap Review


Damage to SME due to rate cap is massive. Won't be much credit demand even if it's reviewed. Hard to imagine it had to take IMF intervention for GoK to see the obvious.

Reviewing the rate cap won't solve much. I don't expect credit growth to rally much after the anticipated repeal for the simple reason that credit started shrinking in July 2015 - more than a year before the rate cap. Systemic risk won't dissipate merely coz of a piece of legislation. Liquidity preference will still be the default setting for banks in addition the govt is past a point of no return when it comes to deficit management aka it must continue its borrowing spree locally to stay afloat.

KE managed to squeeze its eurobond 2.0 before the March window slammed shut beyond which it would have been an extremely costly affair. External funding will be a very tricky endeavour going forward with international interest rates inching higher by the day. As for the NSE, I think it will continue its bearish structure in April as the bull window comes to a close by end of this month once the hype around the rate cap repeal dies down. Will be interesting to see where it finally bottoms out when the dust settles by late 2019, my bet is sub 2000.

The KE economy's waterloo seems slated for H2 2018. Increased taxes, more crowding out by govt, retrenchments in the public sector, stalling of GoK projects, downgrade of KE (pulls down banks with it especially banks with an inordinate exposure to govt dealings like KCB) etc. However, if the KES loses ground early, the show will start soon enough. Replay of the 1990's in the making.

Banks still have to contend with rising NPL's and IFRS9 and that will take some time to flush out and stabilize their houses.


IMF are here to mid wife our economy similar to what they are doing in Ghana,Egypt,Zambia,Mozambique.
After that all will be well though the process will be painful

Overly simplistic view. IMF's record of managing any economy(KE included) is wanting. Their main interest is having monies owed to the repaid by hook or crook at a premium and patronizing countries/leaders. The spade work will have to be done by KE itself just like the turn-around overseen by Kibaki.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
wukan
#1570 Posted : Thursday, March 08, 2018 3:17:38 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 817
Ericsson wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
wukan wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
IMF says Kenya Govt has requested for a 6-month extension of the $1.5B credit facility subject to Rate Cap Review


Damage to SME due to rate cap is massive. Won't be much credit demand even if it's reviewed. Hard to imagine it had to take IMF intervention for GoK to see the obvious.

Reviewing the rate cap won't solve much. I don't expect credit growth to rally much after the anticipated repeal for the simple reason that credit started shrinking in July 2015 - more than a year before the rate cap. Systemic risk won't dissipate merely coz of a piece of legislation. Liquidity preference will still be the default setting for banks in addition the govt is past a point of no return when it comes to deficit management aka it must continue its borrowing spree locally to stay afloat.

KE managed to squeeze its eurobond 2.0 before the March window slammed shut beyond which it would have been an extremely costly affair. External funding will be a very tricky endeavour going forward with international interest rates inching higher by the day. As for the NSE, I think it will continue its bearish structure in April as the bull window comes to a close by end of this month once the hype around the rate cap repeal dies down. Will be interesting to see where it finally bottoms out when the dust settles by late 2019, my bet is sub 2000.

The KE economy's waterloo seems slated for H2 2018. Increased taxes, more crowding out by govt, retrenchments in the public sector, stalling of GoK projects, downgrade of KE (pulls down banks with it especially banks with an inordinate exposure to govt dealings like KCB) etc. However, if the KES loses ground early, the show will start soon enough. Replay of the 1990's in the making.

Banks still have to contend with rising NPL's and IFRS9 and that will take some time to flush out and stabilize their houses.


IMF are here to mid wife our economy similar to what they are doing in Ghana,Egypt,Zambia,Mozambique.
After that all will be well though the process will be painful


We will end up being a nation of shopkeepers like GreeceLaughing out loudly Laughing out loudly The debt hangover will be painful
Ericsson
#1571 Posted : Thursday, March 08, 2018 3:22:38 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 5,317
Location: NAIROBI
lochaz-index wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
wukan wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
IMF says Kenya Govt has requested for a 6-month extension of the $1.5B credit facility subject to Rate Cap Review


Damage to SME due to rate cap is massive. Won't be much credit demand even if it's reviewed. Hard to imagine it had to take IMF intervention for GoK to see the obvious.

Reviewing the rate cap won't solve much. I don't expect credit growth to rally much after the anticipated repeal for the simple reason that credit started shrinking in July 2015 - more than a year before the rate cap. Systemic risk won't dissipate merely coz of a piece of legislation. Liquidity preference will still be the default setting for banks in addition the govt is past a point of no return when it comes to deficit management aka it must continue its borrowing spree locally to stay afloat.

KE managed to squeeze its eurobond 2.0 before the March window slammed shut beyond which it would have been an extremely costly affair. External funding will be a very tricky endeavour going forward with international interest rates inching higher by the day. As for the NSE, I think it will continue its bearish structure in April as the bull window comes to a close by end of this month once the hype around the rate cap repeal dies down. Will be interesting to see where it finally bottoms out when the dust settles by late 2019, my bet is sub 2000.

The KE economy's waterloo seems slated for H2 2018. Increased taxes, more crowding out by govt, retrenchments in the public sector, stalling of GoK projects, downgrade of KE (pulls down banks with it especially banks with an inordinate exposure to govt dealings like KCB) etc. However, if the KES loses ground early, the show will start soon enough. Replay of the 1990's in the making.

Banks still have to contend with rising NPL's and IFRS9 and that will take some time to flush out and stabilize their houses.


IMF are here to mid wife our economy similar to what they are doing in Ghana,Egypt,Zambia,Mozambique.
After that all will be well though the process will be painful

Overly simplistic view. IMF's record of managing any economy(KE included) is wanting. Their main interest is having monies owed to the repaid by hook or crook at a premium and patronizing countries/leaders. The spade work will have to be done by KE itself just like the turn-around overseen by Kibaki.


The two clowns are not Kibaki mr.
lochaz-index
#1572 Posted : Thursday, March 08, 2018 4:20:46 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 880
Ericsson wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
wukan wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
IMF says Kenya Govt has requested for a 6-month extension of the $1.5B credit facility subject to Rate Cap Review


Damage to SME due to rate cap is massive. Won't be much credit demand even if it's reviewed. Hard to imagine it had to take IMF intervention for GoK to see the obvious.

Reviewing the rate cap won't solve much. I don't expect credit growth to rally much after the anticipated repeal for the simple reason that credit started shrinking in July 2015 - more than a year before the rate cap. Systemic risk won't dissipate merely coz of a piece of legislation. Liquidity preference will still be the default setting for banks in addition the govt is past a point of no return when it comes to deficit management aka it must continue its borrowing spree locally to stay afloat.

KE managed to squeeze its eurobond 2.0 before the March window slammed shut beyond which it would have been an extremely costly affair. External funding will be a very tricky endeavour going forward with international interest rates inching higher by the day. As for the NSE, I think it will continue its bearish structure in April as the bull window comes to a close by end of this month once the hype around the rate cap repeal dies down. Will be interesting to see where it finally bottoms out when the dust settles by late 2019, my bet is sub 2000.

The KE economy's waterloo seems slated for H2 2018. Increased taxes, more crowding out by govt, retrenchments in the public sector, stalling of GoK projects, downgrade of KE (pulls down banks with it especially banks with an inordinate exposure to govt dealings like KCB) etc. However, if the KES loses ground early, the show will start soon enough. Replay of the 1990's in the making.

Banks still have to contend with rising NPL's and IFRS9 and that will take some time to flush out and stabilize their houses.


IMF are here to mid wife our economy similar to what they are doing in Ghana,Egypt,Zambia,Mozambique.
After that all will be well though the process will be painful

Overly simplistic view. IMF's record of managing any economy(KE included) is wanting. Their main interest is having monies owed to the repaid by hook or crook at a premium and patronizing countries/leaders. The spade work will have to be done by KE itself just like the turn-around overseen by Kibaki.


The two clowns are not Kibaki mr.

That has been vividly clear for a long time. You have to wonder where the silver bullet is going to come from to see the economy through this self inflicted rough patch. The oil windfall won't go mainstream immediately and whether it is going to be enough remains to be seen.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
murchr
#1573 Posted : Tuesday, March 13, 2018 10:54:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 13,307
Ericsson wrote:
IMF says Kenya Govt has requested for a 6-month extension of the $1.5B credit facility subject to Rate Cap Review


"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
KulaRaha
#1574 Posted : Wednesday, March 14, 2018 8:26:02 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,295
1992 style reboot coming...I remember bread went from 2 bob to 20 bob. Now we can go from 40 bob to 400 bob.
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
Ericsson
#1575 Posted : Monday, March 26, 2018 2:19:04 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 5,317
Location: NAIROBI
Angelica _ann
#1576 Posted : Monday, March 26, 2018 2:32:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 9,096
Ericsson wrote:
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/economy/Kinyua-stops-parastatals-from-taking-in-new-loans/3946234-4358112-pff12fz/index.html

Watu wakaze mshipi



Does this include our beloved Kengen & Kenya Power?
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
wukan
#1577 Posted : Monday, March 26, 2018 2:47:45 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 817
Ericsson wrote:
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/economy/Kinyua-stops-parastatals-from-taking-in-new-loans/3946234-4358112-pff12fz/index.html

Watu wakaze mshipi


Debt junkie attempting withdrawal. Won't last long. The withdrawal symptoms will be too much GoK will soon be back begging for more debt.
KulaRaha
#1578 Posted : Monday, March 26, 2018 3:24:30 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,295
Wait until July, when 1st eurobond has to be repaid...and SGR loans kick in.
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
Ericsson
#1579 Posted : Monday, March 26, 2018 3:29:37 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 5,317
Location: NAIROBI
Angelica _ann wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/economy/Kinyua-stops-parastatals-from-taking-in-new-loans/3946234-4358112-pff12fz/index.html

Watu wakaze mshipi



Does this include our beloved Kengen & Kenya Power?

Yes it does
Gatheuzi
#1580 Posted : Tuesday, March 27, 2018 6:37:50 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/16/2009
Posts: 963
As they say, misery loves company. Seems our good neighbours are copying what we do very keenly if not perfecting it.

Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse!
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