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SGR Progress thus far
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/28/2015 Posts: 9,562 Location: Rodi Kopany, Homa Bay
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KulaRaha wrote:SGR will happen, at any cost. Fragile egos are at stake, coupled with billions embezzled.
Currently, the discounted pricing of a 40 footer to Nairobi with return of empty is $700 by SGR, $950 by road.
How long the price concession will last is anyone's guess, but even if they match the price to road, it will survive.
Issue is process and max volume.
Process is a mess....typical GoK project run by incompetents who got their jobs based on tribe. If process is sorted, I'd risk saying they can charge more than road and still get volumes. Process can be fixed....someday.
However, max volume is another story. That conundrum should have been solved before investing, not now after billions have been spent and eaten. Max volume will not allow SGR to be commercially viable.
But who says GoK needs return on investment? We can keep paying loans with new loans for projects with zero return and bootlickers call that progress.
We're on a road to nowhere Come on inside Taking that ride to nowhere We'll take that ride I'm feeling okay this morning And you know We're on the road to paradise Here we go, here we go We need roads, railways, airports to move people and goods. It's never about a profit or return on investment. It's basic infrastructure and its the governments job to build infrastructure, from highways, railways to dirt roads in the villages. Also its interesting how everyone was complaining that the kenya govt has never built even an inch of railway since independence. And now after building a modern reli everyone is complaining. Mpaka importers would rather use expensive road and be stuck in 3-day jams on mombasa road than use the cheap reli. Infact the govt should declare that all cargo be hauled by sgr to save billions in mombasa road maintenance. Just like oil is transported via pipeline.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,656
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Siringi wrote:SHALL WE TELL THE PRESIDENT?
WHO WILL BELL THE CAT ? The problem with business plans they rarely survive the first day of contact with market forces Quote:At the outset, the country had planned to haul 4,000 tonnes per trip, peaking at 16,000 tonnes daily; 106,000 tonnes weekly and 5.5 million tonnes annually to break even and repay its construction and operational costs.
But, at the current 12,452 tonnes per week, the SGR will have hauled on average, a mere 647,504 tonnes by the end of the year, casting doubt on the viability of the project. http://www.theeastafrica...27638-k1o6ya/index.html
Quote:Here are the highlights of the loans Kenya borrowed from China to build the SGR.
There was a commercial loan of $1.633 billion and a concessionary loan of $1.6 billion. These two were signed and committed in May 2014. Another $1.6 billion for the Nairobi-Naivasha section of the SGR was committed in December 2015.
And we are in the middle of negotiating $4.8 billion to take the line from Naivasha to Kisumu and on to Malaba.
What are the terms?
First, a fixed term of 15 years, inclusive of a grace period of five years. Second, interest of six months of the London Inter-Bank Offered Rate (Libor) plus 360 basis points. This comes to about four per cent of principal.
Third, a management fee of 0.75 per cent payable up-front plus a commitment fee of 0.75 per cent of the undisbursed amount. Finally, insurance from the China Export and Credit Insurance Corporation (Sinosure) at a premium of 6.93 per cent, payable in two instalments.
INTEREST RATE
Therefore, the all-inclusive cost of servicing the Chinese loans comes to an effective interest rate of 12.5 per cent.
When they tell you that Chinese loans are cheap, they are engaged in utter deception. https://www.nation.co.ke...31090-evmdvfz/index.html
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/8/2013 Posts: 2,517
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LINK: LONG ON PROMISE SHORT ON DELIVERY - SGR MAKES LITTLE IMPACT ON COUNTIES IT TRAVERSES Is it too early or are critics being too harsh or were we sold a sick monkey ?
"😖😡KQ makes money for everyone except the shareholder 😏😏 " overheard in Wazua
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/28/2015 Posts: 9,562 Location: Rodi Kopany, Homa Bay
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Writer of article is very myopic. So he wanted people to build kiosks along the reli and have hawkers selling to sgr travelers like they do to bus passengers? What madness is that?
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/20/2011 Posts: 1,820 Location: Nakuru
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I think it is too early. Lets wait and see when it reaches the other side of Nairobi(Naivasha, Narok, Kisumu) or what i call the real bara(i.e., Bara for upcountry) where population is big and communities a bit aggresive and where travel to and from ushago is very important as opposed to leisure travel to mombasa. Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/28/2015 Posts: 9,562 Location: Rodi Kopany, Homa Bay
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Cartels are working hard to discredit the sgr. So importers wouldn't use the sgr even if it was free, they would rather pay 80k by road? It started with the bus owner cartels discrediting the sgr, now we have truck and CFS cartels doing the same. http://www.theeastafrica...27638-k1o6ya/index.html
Quote: William Ojonyo, chairman of the Kenya International Freight and Warehousing Association told The East African in Mombasa that achieving the requisite (cargo volume) numbers will be a tough task “even if they decide to offer the freight services for free.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/28/2015 Posts: 9,562 Location: Rodi Kopany, Homa Bay
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The cartels are really complaining....very selfish. http://www.theeastafrica...27638-k1o6ya/index.html
Quote:But the Kenya government last month directed that all imports coming in through the Mombasa port be transported by the SGR, setting off a round of protests from businesses.
“We arrived at this decision after consulting with other players, including container freight station (CFS) owners, and agreed to have goods moved by train,” said Kenya Railways managing director, Atanas Maina.
At the port, CFS owners and the clearing and forwarding agents, say such orders will kill their business, as importers will have to liaise with new service providers to access the Embakasi ICD.
“Initially, we agreed to have the Nairobi CFS mainly handle such cargo as raw materials and industrial inputs. Now that they have ordered all un-nominated cargo to be transported by the rail, thereby putting our businesses at risk,” said James Rarieya, the chairman of the CFS Association.
The CFS came into operation a decade ago in a bid to ease congestion at Mombasa port, which saw ships charged for delayed cargo deliveries, and these costs passed on to clients.
“Our business is made on volumes moved from port to customers’ premises and that is why the government directive is hitting our bottom line hard. We attract clients by not only charging less on storage but also giving incentives. It is seamless when we work with clearing agents and it is this wholesome package that endears us to clients,” Mr Rarieya said.
But Kenya Railways deny intending to kill this element of logistics services, saying that they are only shifting a point of cargo handling.
“The Nairobi ICD cannot handle the 28 million tonnes. We still have a lot of opportunities for them to do business and I am certain that the CFS owners have identified opportunities at the Nairobi facility too,” Mr Maina said.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/26/2007 Posts: 6,514
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hardwood wrote:KulaRaha wrote:SGR will happen, at any cost. Fragile egos are at stake, coupled with billions embezzled.
Currently, the discounted pricing of a 40 footer to Nairobi with return of empty is $700 by SGR, $950 by road.
How long the price concession will last is anyone's guess, but even if they match the price to road, it will survive.
Issue is process and max volume.
Process is a mess....typical GoK project run by incompetents who got their jobs based on tribe. If process is sorted, I'd risk saying they can charge more than road and still get volumes. Process can be fixed....someday.
However, max volume is another story. That conundrum should have been solved before investing, not now after billions have been spent and eaten. Max volume will not allow SGR to be commercially viable.
But who says GoK needs return on investment? We can keep paying loans with new loans for projects with zero return and bootlickers call that progress.
We're on a road to nowhere Come on inside Taking that ride to nowhere We'll take that ride I'm feeling okay this morning And you know We're on the road to paradise Here we go, here we go We need roads, railways, airports to move people and goods. It's never about a profit or return on investment. It's basic infrastructure and its the governments job to build infrastructure, from highways, railways to dirt roads in the villages. Also its interesting how everyone was complaining that the kenya govt has never built even an inch of railway since independence. And now after building a modern reli everyone is complaining. Mpaka importers would rather use expensive road and be stuck in 3-day jams on mombasa road than use the cheap reli. Infact the govt should declare that all cargo be hauled by sgr to save billions in mombasa road maintenance. Just like oil is transported via pipeline. 5 year grace period, and 15 year tenor. That means we should be handing over the port to China sometime in 2022? Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/8/2013 Posts: 2,517
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HOUSTON WE HAVE A PROBLEM ==>SGR-cargo-volumes-cast-doubt-on-its-viability"😖😡KQ makes money for everyone except the shareholder 😏😏 " overheard in Wazua
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Is this what you were trying to say with your font 50 post? Yes the Cargo uptake has been slow actually in its first 3months I saw a Nairobi bound train virtually empty on Sat while trucks were spewing diesel fumes on the msa road traffic. Kenya has a big problem - Cartels, its not easy to fight with the likes of Joho and govt employees who are hell bent on frastrating everything. Kuna watu wameamua kukula wata kula but lets see how that battle ends up. So if you are not part of the eating club you should not be celebrating. You will pay for the rail and every additional "tax" imposed by cartels. Reli inafika Uganda like it or not.   The biggest saboteurs of GOK efforts are guys sitting at Times tower. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore .
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