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Safaricom HY 2018
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Ebenyo
#221 Posted : Thursday, February 22, 2018 9:17:28 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 2,016
Location: Kitale
Ericsson wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Musimo wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
Horton wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
Safaricom current net asset value per share is kshs 2.40 against the current share price of kshs 29.75.
This describes the firm as "enjoy while the ride last".



True but I think this dhould be valued as a tech stock



The principle applies to all companies.
If safaricom folds up today,each shareholder will be paid kshs 2.40 per share.
According to the current price,thats a massive blow to those with the near average buying price.
Someone who has played the market for the last ten years and with a below ABP of kshs 2.40 will be the one to benefit.

Dear Ebenyo,

Caution...

If Safcom folds up today then the NAV will be less than 2.40 as most "fixed assets" may not fetch the book value unless there are competitors willing to fight over the assets.

The major asset would probably be the (mobile/bandwidth) licenses not "fixed assets"... The franchise/brand is worth much more. It's a cash-printing machine.

A firm like Unga [which I have been looking at in detail] is different in that it has:
Land - Can be sold to anyone
Equipment - Specialized and can be sold to competitors [if they want them]
Brands - Can be sold to competitors but these can be "damaged" easily by a complacent management


I would think that maybe safaricom would also value Mpesa as an asset, alongside the frequencies for 4G among others. Maybe it being classified as a tech stock would be in order as suggested previously.
Then again, on matters valuations I am the most lay of laymen, so some further breakdown on what it would classify as assets would be welcome.


For tech companies valuation is normally done based on the following;
--Free Cash flow
--Patents and licences like spectrum fees,4G licence,Mpesa
--Comparable Analysis where you look at the EBITDA.A multiple is then done to get the value e.g 10 times EBITDA


The current EBITDA is kshs 54,270,000,000.
This gives a NAV of kshs 15.90 per share by your estimation.


Wrong its more than that.
Use the value of the last audited Full year results
It was about 79bn



i have used the latest HY 18 results.
There is a difference on liquidation and selling of safaricom.
If its liquidated today,shareholders will loose big.While there could be a minimal lose if its sold.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
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Ericsson
#222 Posted : Friday, February 23, 2018 12:44:37 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
Ebenyo wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Musimo wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
Horton wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
Safaricom current net asset value per share is kshs 2.40 against the current share price of kshs 29.75.
This describes the firm as "enjoy while the ride last".



True but I think this dhould be valued as a tech stock



The principle applies to all companies.
If safaricom folds up today,each shareholder will be paid kshs 2.40 per share.
According to the current price,thats a massive blow to those with the near average buying price.
Someone who has played the market for the last ten years and with a below ABP of kshs 2.40 will be the one to benefit.

Dear Ebenyo,

Caution...

If Safcom folds up today then the NAV will be less than 2.40 as most "fixed assets" may not fetch the book value unless there are competitors willing to fight over the assets.

The major asset would probably be the (mobile/bandwidth) licenses not "fixed assets"... The franchise/brand is worth much more. It's a cash-printing machine.

A firm like Unga [which I have been looking at in detail] is different in that it has:
Land - Can be sold to anyone
Equipment - Specialized and can be sold to competitors [if they want them]
Brands - Can be sold to competitors but these can be "damaged" easily by a complacent management


I would think that maybe safaricom would also value Mpesa as an asset, alongside the frequencies for 4G among others. Maybe it being classified as a tech stock would be in order as suggested previously.
Then again, on matters valuations I am the most lay of laymen, so some further breakdown on what it would classify as assets would be welcome.


For tech companies valuation is normally done based on the following;
--Free Cash flow
--Patents and licences like spectrum fees,4G licence,Mpesa
--Comparable Analysis where you look at the EBITDA.A multiple is then done to get the value e.g 10 times EBITDA


The current EBITDA is kshs 54,270,000,000.
This gives a NAV of kshs 15.90 per share by your estimation.


Wrong its more than that.
Use the value of the last audited Full year results
It was about 79bn



i have used the HY 18 results which is the latest.
Your point is if safaricom will be sold while i was talking about liquidation.


HY results are not audited and are never used in valuation of a company.
A company is valued using FY audited.
Use last audited FY results
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Ericsson
#223 Posted : Monday, February 26, 2018 7:56:19 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
http://www.theeastafrica...8342-838mysz/index.html

And opportunity for safaricom to enter Uganda by bailing out its sister
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Pesa Nane
#224 Posted : Wednesday, February 28, 2018 11:09:59 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c
Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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Wororo
#225 Posted : Monday, March 05, 2018 10:22:37 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/30/2011
Posts: 207
watesh wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
Wororo wrote:
Airtel Bharti in plans to list it's African Ops vehicle - Bharti Airtel International - with aim of reducing it's debt



This could be an option for those passed by safaricom.
They will have to prove their profitability and sustainable onward growth.Otherwise it will just be speculators den.

Will it even list on the NSE?

Perhaps the London bourse...
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Ericsson
#226 Posted : Tuesday, March 20, 2018 4:39:05 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
http://www.kbc.co.ke/144...nected-safaricom-fibre/

More than 144,000 homes countrywide are now within reach of Safaricom’s Fibre to the home service in Nairobi County.

Safaricom connected Ngummo and Newa estates to its Fibre benefiting more than 1,200 homes on Sunday.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Ericsson
#227 Posted : Tuesday, March 20, 2018 4:41:08 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
sh.31 smashed
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Ericsson
#228 Posted : Wednesday, March 21, 2018 12:33:29 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
Foreign investors taking positions in anticipation of good full year results
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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murchr
#229 Posted : Monday, March 26, 2018 5:29:00 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980


"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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Ericsson
#230 Posted : Tuesday, March 27, 2018 7:10:09 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
Full year results to be announced on 10 May 2018
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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