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Kenya Power HY18
MugundaMan
#21 Posted : Tuesday, February 27, 2018 8:56:48 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/8/2018
Posts: 2,211
Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
Sold this lemon shortly after I munched the January dividend, having held on to it for over 4 years. The problem with these government utilities is that they get lazy and complacent, borrow to the eyeballs knowing the economy needs them and bailouts will always be there, and they are victims of mass theft; of electricity, of transformers etc. So estimating their future value is like trying to hold liver in the palm.
Spikes
#22 Posted : Tuesday, February 27, 2018 9:28:08 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
MugundaMan wrote:
Sold this lemon shortly after I munched the January dividend, having held on to it for over 4 years. The problem with these government utilities is that they get lazy and complacent, borrow to the eyeballs knowing the economy needs them and bailouts will always be there, and they are victims of mass theft; of electricity, of transformers etc. So estimating their future value is like trying to hold liver in the palm.


What was your average buy price?
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
Spikes
#23 Posted : Tuesday, February 27, 2018 9:29:38 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
MugundaMan wrote:
Sold this lemon shortly after I munched the January dividend, having held on to it for over 4 years. The problem with these government utilities is that they get lazy and complacent, borrow to the eyeballs knowing the economy needs them and bailouts will always be there, and they are victims of mass theft; of electricity, of transformers etc. So estimating their future value is like trying to hold liver in the palm.


What was your average buy price?
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
VituVingiSana
#24 Posted : Tuesday, February 27, 2018 11:47:17 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,056
Location: Nairobi
https://www.businessdail...2220-h8v3yjz/index.html
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
MugundaMan
#25 Posted : Wednesday, February 28, 2018 8:05:12 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/8/2018
Posts: 2,211
Location: DC (Dustbowl County)
Spikes wrote:

What was your average buy price?


I took a slight hit so my cost basis was definitely slightly higher than the current price, even after accounting for dividends munched.
Ericsson
#26 Posted : Wednesday, February 28, 2018 8:26:23 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,639
Location: NAIROBI
VituVingiSana wrote:
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/markets/capital/Concern-over-Kenya-Power-s-share-price/4259442-4322220-h8v3yjz/index.html

The price of mismanagement.
The company is joining the likes of Uchumi, Mumias sugar,east africa portland Cement
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
mlennyma
#27 Posted : Wednesday, February 28, 2018 10:13:10 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,175
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/markets/capital/Concern-over-Kenya-Power-s-share-price/4259442-4322220-h8v3yjz/index.html

are you sure your link is not dead on it's my sides problem?
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
watesh
#28 Posted : Wednesday, February 28, 2018 10:38:16 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 954
Location: Kenya
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/markets/capital/Concern-over-Kenya-Power-s-share-price/4259442-4322220-h8v3yjz/index.html

The price of mismanagement.
The company is joining the likes of Uchumi, Mumias sugar,east africa portland Cement

Oh yes....good thing this one is a guaranteed bail out because of the monopoly factor. It cannot shut down. Waiting for Ksh6 to print then i start jumping in then sell as soon as it hits 10.
Ebenyo
#29 Posted : Wednesday, February 28, 2018 3:57:27 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,996
Location: Kitale
According to the audited results FY ending 30th June 2017,kenya power net asset value per share was kshs 35.90 against the current share price of ksh 8.00.
This means if kenya power is dissolved today,each shareholder will be paid kshs 35.90 per share.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
Fyatu
#30 Posted : Wednesday, February 28, 2018 4:39:28 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,820
Location: Nakuru
Ebenyo wrote:
According to the audited results FY ending 30th June 2017,kenya power net asset value per share was kshs 35.90 against the current share price of ksh 8.00.
This means if kenya power is dissolved today,each shareholder will be paid kshs 35.90 per share.


This one is buy hold accumulate and re-invest dividend for the next 30 years. This one is to be held forever.
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
kawi254
#31 Posted : Wednesday, February 28, 2018 4:50:06 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/20/2015
Posts: 465
Location: Nairobi
watesh wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/markets/capital/Concern-over-Kenya-Power-s-share-price/4259442-4322220-h8v3yjz/index.html

The price of mismanagement.
The company is joining the likes of Uchumi, Mumias sugar,east africa portland Cement

Oh yes....good thing this one is a guaranteed bail out because of the monopoly factor. It cannot shut down. Waiting for Ksh6 to print then i start jumping in then sell as soon as it hits 10.


Hidden in all the accounting mumbo jumbo is the fact that Kenya Power spent a lot of money rolling out street lights in major towns and connecting consumers for #GoKDelivers election campaigns and they have not been paid. A part of Eurobond 2 will be given to Kenya Power to correct it's accounts and full year results will be looking better.
Ericsson
#32 Posted : Thursday, March 01, 2018 5:54:51 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,639
Location: NAIROBI
kawi254 wrote:
watesh wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/markets/capital/Concern-over-Kenya-Power-s-share-price/4259442-4322220-h8v3yjz/index.html

The price of mismanagement.
The company is joining the likes of Uchumi, Mumias sugar,east africa portland Cement

Oh yes....good thing this one is a guaranteed bail out because of the monopoly factor. It cannot shut down. Waiting for Ksh6 to print then i start jumping in then sell as soon as it hits 10.


Hidden in all the accounting mumbo jumbo is the fact that Kenya Power spent a lot of money rolling out street lights in major towns and connecting consumers for #GoKDelivers election campaigns and they have not been paid. A part of Eurobond 2 will be given to Kenya Power to correct it's accounts and full year results will be looking better.


Hopefully there will be an improvement in the cashflow come full year
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Angelica _ann
#33 Posted : Thursday, March 01, 2018 7:18:58 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,901
Ericsson wrote:
kawi254 wrote:
watesh wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/markets/capital/Concern-over-Kenya-Power-s-share-price/4259442-4322220-h8v3yjz/index.html

The price of mismanagement.
The company is joining the likes of Uchumi, Mumias sugar,east africa portland Cement

Oh yes....good thing this one is a guaranteed bail out because of the monopoly factor. It cannot shut down. Waiting for Ksh6 to print then i start jumping in then sell as soon as it hits 10.


Hidden in all the accounting mumbo jumbo is the fact that Kenya Power spent a lot of money rolling out street lights in major towns and connecting consumers for #GoKDelivers election campaigns and they have not been paid. A part of Eurobond 2 will be given to Kenya Power to correct it's accounts and full year results will be looking better.


Hopefully there will be an improvement in the cashflow come full year


Where is the prospectus of Eurobond 2 smile
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
VituVingiSana
#34 Posted : Thursday, March 01, 2018 8:47:58 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,056
Location: Nairobi
kawi254 wrote:
watesh wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/markets/capital/Concern-over-Kenya-Power-s-share-price/4259442-4322220-h8v3yjz/index.html

The price of mismanagement.
The company is joining the likes of Uchumi, Mumias sugar,east africa portland Cement

Oh yes....good thing this one is a guaranteed bail out because of the monopoly factor. It cannot shut down. Waiting for Ksh6 to print then i start jumping in then sell as soon as it hits 10.


Hidden in all the accounting mumbo jumbo is the fact that Kenya Power spent a lot of money rolling out street lights in major towns and connecting consumers for #GoKDelivers election campaigns and they have not been paid. A part of Eurobond 2 will be given to Kenya Power to correct it's accounts and full year results will be looking better.

A huge chunk of that 35.90 is based off over-priced poles supplied by Arap Mashamba. In the open/transparent market they may be worth just 20% of the stated value!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ebenyo
#35 Posted : Thursday, March 01, 2018 9:29:18 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,996
Location: Kitale
VituVingiSana wrote:
kawi254 wrote:
watesh wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/markets/capital/Concern-over-Kenya-Power-s-share-price/4259442-4322220-h8v3yjz/index.html

The price of mismanagement.
The company is joining the likes of Uchumi, Mumias sugar,east africa portland Cement

Oh yes....good thing this one is a guaranteed bail out because of the monopoly factor. It cannot shut down. Waiting for Ksh6 to print then i start jumping in then sell as soon as it hits 10.


Hidden in all the accounting mumbo jumbo is the fact that Kenya Power spent a lot of money rolling out street lights in major towns and connecting consumers for #GoKDelivers election campaigns and they have not been paid. A part of Eurobond 2 will be given to Kenya Power to correct it's accounts and full year results will be looking better.

A huge chunk of that 35.90 is based off over-priced poles supplied by Arap Mashamba. In the open/transparent market they may be worth just 20% of the stated value!



Talk of the challenge of finding undervalued stocks in Nse!
Towards the goal of financial freedom
Ebenyo
#36 Posted : Thursday, March 01, 2018 9:44:14 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,996
Location: Kitale
kawi254 wrote:
watesh wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/markets/capital/Concern-over-Kenya-Power-s-share-price/4259442-4322220-h8v3yjz/index.html

The price of mismanagement.
The company is joining the likes of Uchumi, Mumias sugar,east africa portland Cement

Oh yes....good thing this one is a guaranteed bail out because of the monopoly factor. It cannot shut down. Waiting for Ksh6 to print then i start jumping in then sell as soon as it hits 10.


Hidden in all the accounting mumbo jumbo is the fact that Kenya Power spent a lot of money rolling out street lights in major towns and connecting consumers for #GoKDelivers election campaigns and they have not been paid. A part of Eurobond 2 will be given to Kenya Power to correct it's accounts and full year results will be looking better.



It will largely depend with the management decisions.
For example,now that rains have began,there should be no need to generate more thermal.That should save more than kshs 6 billion in fuel.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
Fyatu
#37 Posted : Friday, March 02, 2018 7:56:28 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,820
Location: Nakuru
Ebenyo wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
kawi254 wrote:
watesh wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/markets/capital/Concern-over-Kenya-Power-s-share-price/4259442-4322220-h8v3yjz/index.html

The price of mismanagement.
The company is joining the likes of Uchumi, Mumias sugar,east africa portland Cement

Oh yes....good thing this one is a guaranteed bail out because of the monopoly factor. It cannot shut down. Waiting for Ksh6 to print then i start jumping in then sell as soon as it hits 10.


Hidden in all the accounting mumbo jumbo is the fact that Kenya Power spent a lot of money rolling out street lights in major towns and connecting consumers for #GoKDelivers election campaigns and they have not been paid. A part of Eurobond 2 will be given to Kenya Power to correct it's accounts and full year results will be looking better.

A huge chunk of that 35.90 is based off over-priced poles supplied by Arap Mashamba. In the open/transparent market they may be worth just 20% of the stated value!



Talk of the challenge of finding undervalued stocks in Nse!


With a P.E. of 2.62, EPS of 3.07 and Dividend yield of 6.21%, return on equity of 11.53 % vs industry 8%, and a Gross margin 0f 27%, i believe Kenya power is undervalued. Indeed based on the NAV of 35.90 buying today is like paying 20 cents for one dollar. Furthermore, assuming they will pay a conservative 4% dividend every year, you stand a chance retiring very comfortably courtesy of KP
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
heri
#38 Posted : Friday, March 02, 2018 8:28:45 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 834
Location: nairobi
Fyatu wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
kawi254 wrote:
watesh wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/markets/capital/Concern-over-Kenya-Power-s-share-price/4259442-4322220-h8v3yjz/index.html

The price of mismanagement.
The company is joining the likes of Uchumi, Mumias sugar,east africa portland Cement

Oh yes....good thing this one is a guaranteed bail out because of the monopoly factor. It cannot shut down. Waiting for Ksh6 to print then i start jumping in then sell as soon as it hits 10.


Hidden in all the accounting mumbo jumbo is the fact that Kenya Power spent a lot of money rolling out street lights in major towns and connecting consumers for #GoKDelivers election campaigns and they have not been paid. A part of Eurobond 2 will be given to Kenya Power to correct it's accounts and full year results will be looking better.

A huge chunk of that 35.90 is based off over-priced poles supplied by Arap Mashamba. In the open/transparent market they may be worth just 20% of the stated value!



Talk of the challenge of finding undervalued stocks in Nse!


With a P.E. of 2.62, EPS of 3.07 and Dividend yield of 6.21%, return on equity of 11.53 % vs industry 8%, and a Gross margin 0f 27%, i believe Kenya power is undervalued. Indeed based on the NAV of 35.90 buying today is like paying 20 cents for one dollar. Furthermore, assuming they will pay a conservative 4% dividend every year, you stand a chance retiring very comfortably courtesy of KP


someone had mentioned some loans which were not disclosed . what was that about?
the deal
#39 Posted : Friday, March 02, 2018 8:46:05 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Problem is generation capacity is growing at a much faster pace than electricity sales... Sales to industries shrank by 1% in HY2018 .Kenyan economy must be doing badly or industries are turning to alternatives due to Kenya Power incompetence... Soon this company will find itself in a huge liquidity crisis unless GoK injects money into it... Already in HY2018 they took a huge overdraft facility to starve off a liquidity crisis...
Ebenyo
#40 Posted : Friday, March 02, 2018 8:46:58 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,996
Location: Kitale
Fyatu wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
kawi254 wrote:
watesh wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/markets/capital/Concern-over-Kenya-Power-s-share-price/4259442-4322220-h8v3yjz/index.html

The price of mismanagement.
The company is joining the likes of Uchumi, Mumias sugar,east africa portland Cement

Oh yes....good thing this one is a guaranteed bail out because of the monopoly factor. It cannot shut down. Waiting for Ksh6 to print then i start jumping in then sell as soon as it hits 10.


Hidden in all the accounting mumbo jumbo is the fact that Kenya Power spent a lot of money rolling out street lights in major towns and connecting consumers for #GoKDelivers election campaigns and they have not been paid. A part of Eurobond 2 will be given to Kenya Power to correct it's accounts and full year results will be looking better.

A huge chunk of that 35.90 is based off over-priced poles supplied by Arap Mashamba. In the open/transparent market they may be worth just 20% of the stated value!



Talk of the challenge of finding undervalued stocks in Nse!


With a P.E. of 2.62, EPS of 3.07 and Dividend yield of 6.21%, return on equity of 11.53 % vs industry 8%, and a Gross margin 0f 27%, i believe Kenya power is undervalued. Indeed based on the NAV of 35.90 buying today is like paying 20 cents for one dollar. Furthermore, assuming they will pay a conservative 4% dividend every year, you stand a chance retiring very comfortably courtesy of KP


Thats great insight @fyatu.
Gok owns 50% of the company shareholding hence the controlling stake.If this could be shaken up a little bit,so that kenya power get sound management,this will be the best company to invest in NSE.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
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