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Safaricom HY 2018
Rank: Member Joined: 1/30/2011 Posts: 207
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obiero wrote:heri wrote:I hear WhatsApp is testing money transfer in India. Anyone with more details Facebook is testing theirs here in Kenya. I'm part of the trial team and it's a pretty good service Google revamps it's Android pay and Google Wallet into the unified GOOGLE PAY SEND
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/4/2016 Posts: 2,016 Location: Kitale
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Horton wrote:Ebenyo wrote:Safaricom current net asset value per share is kshs 2.40 against the current share price of kshs 29.75.
This describes the firm as "enjoy while the ride last". True but I think this dhould be valued as a tech stock The principle applies to all companies. If safaricom folds up today,each shareholder will be paid kshs 2.40 per share. According to the current price,thats a massive blow to those with the near average buying price. Someone who has played the market for the last ten years and with a below ABP of kshs 2.40 will be the one to benefit. Towards the goal of financial freedom
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,347 Location: Nairobi
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Ebenyo wrote:Horton wrote:Ebenyo wrote:Safaricom current net asset value per share is kshs 2.40 against the current share price of kshs 29.75.
This describes the firm as "enjoy while the ride last". True but I think this dhould be valued as a tech stock The principle applies to all companies. If safaricom folds up today,each shareholder will be paid kshs 2.40 per share. According to the current price,thats a massive blow to those with the near average buying price. Someone who has played the market for the last ten years and with a below ABP of kshs 2.40 will be the one to benefit. Dear Ebenyo, Caution... If Safcom folds up today then the NAV will be less than 2.40 as most "fixed assets" may not fetch the book value unless there are competitors willing to fight over the assets. The major asset would probably be the (mobile/bandwidth) licenses not "fixed assets"... The franchise/brand is worth much more. It's a cash-printing machine. A firm like Unga [which I have been looking at in detail] is different in that it has: Land - Can be sold to anyone Equipment - Specialized and can be sold to competitors [if they want them] Brands - Can be sold to competitors but these can be "damaged" easily by a complacent management Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/3/2015 Posts: 118 Location: Nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:Ebenyo wrote:Horton wrote:Ebenyo wrote:Safaricom current net asset value per share is kshs 2.40 against the current share price of kshs 29.75.
This describes the firm as "enjoy while the ride last". True but I think this dhould be valued as a tech stock The principle applies to all companies. If safaricom folds up today,each shareholder will be paid kshs 2.40 per share. According to the current price,thats a massive blow to those with the near average buying price. Someone who has played the market for the last ten years and with a below ABP of kshs 2.40 will be the one to benefit. Dear Ebenyo, Caution... If Safcom folds up today then the NAV will be less than 2.40 as most "fixed assets" may not fetch the book value unless there are competitors willing to fight over the assets. The major asset would probably be the (mobile/bandwidth) licenses not "fixed assets"... The franchise/brand is worth much more. It's a cash-printing machine. A firm like Unga [which I have been looking at in detail] is different in that it has: Land - Can be sold to anyone Equipment - Specialized and can be sold to competitors [if they want them] Brands - Can be sold to competitors but these can be "damaged" easily by a complacent management I would think that maybe safaricom would also value Mpesa as an asset, alongside the frequencies for 4G among others. Maybe it being classified as a tech stock would be in order as suggested previously. Then again, on matters valuations I am the most lay of laymen, so some further breakdown on what it would classify as assets would be welcome.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
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Ebenyo wrote:Horton wrote:Ebenyo wrote:Safaricom current net asset value per share is kshs 2.40 against the current share price of kshs 29.75.
This describes the firm as "enjoy while the ride last". True but I think this dhould be valued as a tech stock The principle applies to all companies. If safaricom folds up today,each shareholder will be paid kshs 2.40 per share. According to the current price,thats a massive blow to those with the near average buying price. Someone who has played the market for the last ten years and with a below ABP of kshs 2.40 will be the one to benefit. So Book values can be fudged. Its in a different sector. Compare BRK.A share price of $300,000 vs book value of 190,000 Also compare AAPL $171 vs book of $27. Different metrics. But yes I agree Saf is currently pricey
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,804 Location: NAIROBI
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Musimo wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Ebenyo wrote:Horton wrote:Ebenyo wrote:Safaricom current net asset value per share is kshs 2.40 against the current share price of kshs 29.75.
This describes the firm as "enjoy while the ride last". True but I think this dhould be valued as a tech stock The principle applies to all companies. If safaricom folds up today,each shareholder will be paid kshs 2.40 per share. According to the current price,thats a massive blow to those with the near average buying price. Someone who has played the market for the last ten years and with a below ABP of kshs 2.40 will be the one to benefit. Dear Ebenyo, Caution... If Safcom folds up today then the NAV will be less than 2.40 as most "fixed assets" may not fetch the book value unless there are competitors willing to fight over the assets. The major asset would probably be the (mobile/bandwidth) licenses not "fixed assets"... The franchise/brand is worth much more. It's a cash-printing machine. A firm like Unga [which I have been looking at in detail] is different in that it has: Land - Can be sold to anyone Equipment - Specialized and can be sold to competitors [if they want them] Brands - Can be sold to competitors but these can be "damaged" easily by a complacent management I would think that maybe safaricom would also value Mpesa as an asset, alongside the frequencies for 4G among others. Maybe it being classified as a tech stock would be in order as suggested previously. Then again, on matters valuations I am the most lay of laymen, so some further breakdown on what it would classify as assets would be welcome. For tech companies valuation is normally done based on the following; --Free Cash flow --Patents and licences like spectrum fees,4G licence,Mpesa --Comparable Analysis where you look at the EBITDA.A multiple is then done to get the value e.g 10 times EBITDA Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/4/2016 Posts: 2,016 Location: Kitale
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VituVingiSana wrote:Ebenyo wrote:Horton wrote:Ebenyo wrote:Safaricom current net asset value per share is kshs 2.40 against the current share price of kshs 29.75.
This describes the firm as "enjoy while the ride last". True but I think this dhould be valued as a tech stock The principle applies to all companies. If safaricom folds up today,each shareholder will be paid kshs 2.40 per share. According to the current price,thats a massive blow to those with the near average buying price. Someone who has played the market for the last ten years and with a below ABP of kshs 2.40 will be the one to benefit. Dear Ebenyo, Caution... If Safcom folds up today then the NAV will be less than 2.40 as most "fixed assets" may not fetch the book value unless there are competitors willing to fight over the assets. The major asset would probably be the (mobile/bandwidth) licenses not "fixed assets"... The franchise/brand is worth much more. It's a cash-printing machine. A firm like Unga [which I have been looking at in detail] is different in that it has: Land - Can be sold to anyone Equipment - Specialized and can be sold to competitors [if they want them] Brands - Can be sold to competitors but these can be "damaged" easily by a complacent management @vvs,thats a glimpse at difference between long term and short term investment. The former is about value while the latter is about hype and sentiments. Towards the goal of financial freedom
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/4/2016 Posts: 2,016 Location: Kitale
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Ericsson wrote:Musimo wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Ebenyo wrote:Horton wrote:Ebenyo wrote:Safaricom current net asset value per share is kshs 2.40 against the current share price of kshs 29.75.
This describes the firm as "enjoy while the ride last". True but I think this dhould be valued as a tech stock The principle applies to all companies. If safaricom folds up today,each shareholder will be paid kshs 2.40 per share. According to the current price,thats a massive blow to those with the near average buying price. Someone who has played the market for the last ten years and with a below ABP of kshs 2.40 will be the one to benefit. Dear Ebenyo, Caution... If Safcom folds up today then the NAV will be less than 2.40 as most "fixed assets" may not fetch the book value unless there are competitors willing to fight over the assets. The major asset would probably be the (mobile/bandwidth) licenses not "fixed assets"... The franchise/brand is worth much more. It's a cash-printing machine. A firm like Unga [which I have been looking at in detail] is different in that it has: Land - Can be sold to anyone Equipment - Specialized and can be sold to competitors [if they want them] Brands - Can be sold to competitors but these can be "damaged" easily by a complacent management I would think that maybe safaricom would also value Mpesa as an asset, alongside the frequencies for 4G among others. Maybe it being classified as a tech stock would be in order as suggested previously. Then again, on matters valuations I am the most lay of laymen, so some further breakdown on what it would classify as assets would be welcome. For tech companies valuation is normally done based on the following; --Free Cash flow --Patents and licences like spectrum fees,4G licence,Mpesa --Comparable Analysis where you look at the EBITDA.A multiple is then done to get the value e.g 10 times EBITDA The current EBITDA is kshs 54,270,000,000. This gives a NAV of kshs 15.90 per share by your estimation. Towards the goal of financial freedom
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,804 Location: NAIROBI
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Ebenyo wrote:Ericsson wrote:Musimo wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Ebenyo wrote:Horton wrote:Ebenyo wrote:Safaricom current net asset value per share is kshs 2.40 against the current share price of kshs 29.75.
This describes the firm as "enjoy while the ride last". True but I think this dhould be valued as a tech stock The principle applies to all companies. If safaricom folds up today,each shareholder will be paid kshs 2.40 per share. According to the current price,thats a massive blow to those with the near average buying price. Someone who has played the market for the last ten years and with a below ABP of kshs 2.40 will be the one to benefit. Dear Ebenyo, Caution... If Safcom folds up today then the NAV will be less than 2.40 as most "fixed assets" may not fetch the book value unless there are competitors willing to fight over the assets. The major asset would probably be the (mobile/bandwidth) licenses not "fixed assets"... The franchise/brand is worth much more. It's a cash-printing machine. A firm like Unga [which I have been looking at in detail] is different in that it has: Land - Can be sold to anyone Equipment - Specialized and can be sold to competitors [if they want them] Brands - Can be sold to competitors but these can be "damaged" easily by a complacent management I would think that maybe safaricom would also value Mpesa as an asset, alongside the frequencies for 4G among others. Maybe it being classified as a tech stock would be in order as suggested previously. Then again, on matters valuations I am the most lay of laymen, so some further breakdown on what it would classify as assets would be welcome. For tech companies valuation is normally done based on the following; --Free Cash flow --Patents and licences like spectrum fees,4G licence,Mpesa --Comparable Analysis where you look at the EBITDA.A multiple is then done to get the value e.g 10 times EBITDA The current EBITDA is kshs 54,270,000,000. This gives a NAV of kshs 15.90 per share by your estimation. Wrong its more than that. Use the value of the last audited Full year results It was about 79bn Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/4/2016 Posts: 2,016 Location: Kitale
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Ericsson wrote:Ebenyo wrote:Ericsson wrote:Musimo wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Ebenyo wrote:Horton wrote:Ebenyo wrote:Safaricom current net asset value per share is kshs 2.40 against the current share price of kshs 29.75.
This describes the firm as "enjoy while the ride last". True but I think this dhould be valued as a tech stock The principle applies to all companies. If safaricom folds up today,each shareholder will be paid kshs 2.40 per share. According to the current price,thats a massive blow to those with the near average buying price. Someone who has played the market for the last ten years and with a below ABP of kshs 2.40 will be the one to benefit. Dear Ebenyo, Caution... If Safcom folds up today then the NAV will be less than 2.40 as most "fixed assets" may not fetch the book value unless there are competitors willing to fight over the assets. The major asset would probably be the (mobile/bandwidth) licenses not "fixed assets"... The franchise/brand is worth much more. It's a cash-printing machine. A firm like Unga [which I have been looking at in detail] is different in that it has: Land - Can be sold to anyone Equipment - Specialized and can be sold to competitors [if they want them] Brands - Can be sold to competitors but these can be "damaged" easily by a complacent management I would think that maybe safaricom would also value Mpesa as an asset, alongside the frequencies for 4G among others. Maybe it being classified as a tech stock would be in order as suggested previously. Then again, on matters valuations I am the most lay of laymen, so some further breakdown on what it would classify as assets would be welcome. For tech companies valuation is normally done based on the following; --Free Cash flow --Patents and licences like spectrum fees,4G licence,Mpesa --Comparable Analysis where you look at the EBITDA.A multiple is then done to get the value e.g 10 times EBITDA The current EBITDA is kshs 54,270,000,000. This gives a NAV of kshs 15.90 per share by your estimation. Wrong its more than that. Use the value of the last audited Full year results It was about 79bn i have used the HY 18 results which is the latest. Your point is if safaricom will be sold while i was talking about liquidation. Towards the goal of financial freedom
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