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President Uhuru Kenyatta 2nd Term - 2017/2022
wukan
#121 Posted : Wednesday, February 21, 2018 5:16:20 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,590
Fullykenyan wrote:
wukan wrote:
Swenani wrote:
wukan wrote:
Quote:
Can we transport goods cheaply without infrastructure? Can we attain that competitive edge on fear


Yes you can transport goods cheaply without expensive infrastructure. If you are manufacturing for export why not locate the industries at the coastal belt or it is re-export locate the industries in kisumu



How would you transport the raw materials? E.g Assume you are exporting tea and the raw materials come from Kericho and the factory is in Mombasa? Also, are raw materials cheap to transport or finished goods?


Are you saying when Brooke Bond started tea exports in 1924 they needed the SGR? Read the sentence in context you don't need advanced capital intensive infrastructure to establish industry.

Economist Solow in his Solow modell describes how a country can beat poverty in a space of fifteen years
In a nutshell he says, the rate of technogical advacement in a year should exceed populational growth.It is then and only then, that country can beat poverty
In few words, there is no economic growth without investmenting in things like SGR.


Yeah China tried that copy and paste between 1860-1919 failed miserably ending up in debt and torn apart and also ended the Qing dynasty
murchr
#122 Posted : Wednesday, February 21, 2018 6:56:05 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
wukan wrote:
Quote:
The interest rates in the US are going higher and will continue to go higher infact it is expected that in 2018, the Fed(central bank of the US) will raise the interest rate 3 times. So what impact does that have on the govt - govt negotiated loans(Kenya - China? Me dont see much.


Think about it that interest rates are going higher and the dollar is going lower. It means the market knows the US rates will need to go much higher to attract dollars to the US assets(Actually we may get better interest rates with our Euro-bonds than equivalent US junk bonds). If US rates get to sufficient level then the dollars hanging around will rush home. Kenya has 2 billion dollars to repay in 2024 Eurobonds. What the impact you ask-the forex reserves get depleted then currency gets devalued and kenya imports inflation

Quote:
This will be 3.6% + the Libor rate in August 2023 (10-year grace period - 30year payment period). We dont know what kind of world we will be in in 2023 for the rate to be at whatever rate you imagine, it could be high or low. Time will tell.

Well I'm glad that you are now appreciating the risk. What if the Libor rate is at 10% in 2023

Quote:
If Kenya borrows to build a pipeline that transports oil from Turkana selling the oil at today's price of $65 will Kenya's exports have improved dramatically? Since you are using historical data to foresee the future, what impact did the Lunatic express have in this country 60 years after it was built? Can we transport goods cheaply without infrastructure? Can we attain that competitive edge on fear


The pipeline is being built by Total/Tullow so whatever capital investment dollars they bring in we spend to repay Kenya's debt. There is much cheaper oil in the world than Turkana's. It's more likely oil price drops to $30-35 which makes Turkana oil unviable to commercially exploit.

Lunatic express has been here for 100+ years it's not improved our exports. It was a white elephant whose cost of repayment eventually led to the mau mau conflict. The cargo volumes in east africa will not magically go up because of SGR. The cargo volumes to satisfy SGR capacity will appear maybe in 2050. Most of Kenya's valuable exports horticulture are exported through airports not seaports.

I will answer you last queries later



Do you really believe in what you are writing here ama ni kupayuka tu?

When the feds raise the US interest rates, they STRENGTHEN the dollar not weaken it...Ai! That's why you see the current capital flight from frontier markets such as KE to the US stock exchange and as the USD gets its strength, everything sold by the dollar becomes valuable...those flowers from Naivasha, those Agoa goods, that tea (see why farmers in Kericho are rich) Now if you add oil in the mix, What are we looking at?

On libor....the 12 months libor rate of Aug 2013 when KE was signing up that loan was 0.6683, what catastrophe will cause it to get to 10 in 2023? Wouldn't that be a recipe for recession?

Now on the pipeline GOK is in a joint venture with Tullow and Toyota so yes you get to pay for that too. But on a more serious note, should Kenyan not explore the oil in Turkana because the price might go down? Really?

According to you the lunatic did nothing, so how did Londoners get tea from the eastafrican highlands?

wukan wrote:
Simple wealth is the output of production. The interplay of the factors of production capital, labor, land and technology (human capital) is what turns idle resources into wealth. The road to wealth starts by providing goods and services that the population wants and is willing to pay for. The more goods and services produced the more the wealth and infrastructure to serve the economy grows.
The economy grows where there is an exchange of goods and knowledge. Urban expansion is the best way to promote the exchange of knowledge and promote the division and specialization of labor.

Government spending does not stimulate economic growth. It just redistributes the income it collects from taxes. It misallocates capital towards less productive uses. It is wasteful in expenditure e.g. 10 bob biro pen will cost the govt 150. Kenya economic history shows growth has come when govt has taken a back seat and allowed private sector generate wealth.



You are right on one thing, wealth is created by employing the factors of production, Land(includes all Natural resouses), Labor(Human capital) Capital(Includes all manmade resources) Enterprise (which brings all the previous resources together for production). Now what would you be manufacturing if you cant exploit the natural resources, produce something using cheap electricity? Transport something using the cheapest form of transportation?

When a country takes up loans for infrastructure projects that lead to conducting business cheaper the "debt" becomes leverage.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Fullykenyan
#123 Posted : Wednesday, February 21, 2018 7:23:14 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/27/2014
Posts: 560
Location: Eastlando
wukan wrote:
Fullykenyan wrote:
wukan wrote:
Swenani wrote:
wukan wrote:
Quote:
Can we transport goods cheaply without infrastructure? Can we attain that competitive edge on fear


Yes you can transport goods cheaply without expensive infrastructure. If you are manufacturing for export why not locate the industries at the coastal belt or it is re-export locate the industries in kisumu



How would you transport the raw materials? E.g Assume you are exporting tea and the raw materials come from Kericho and the factory is in Mombasa? Also, are raw materials cheap to transport or finished goods?


Are you saying when Brooke Bond started tea exports in 1924 they needed the SGR? Read the sentence in context you don't need advanced capital intensive infrastructure to establish industry.

Economist Solow in his Solow modell describes how a country can beat poverty in a space of fifteen years
In a nutshell he says, the rate of technogical advacement in a year should exceed populational growth.It is then and only then, that country can beat poverty
In few words, there is no economic growth without investmenting in things like SGR.


Yeah China tried that copy and paste between 1860-1919 failed miserably ending up in debt and torn apart and also ended the Qing dynasty

It can´t be. Solow was not even born by then. solow model, if my memory does not fail me, was developed in the 60´s
Swenani
#124 Posted : Wednesday, February 21, 2018 7:48:12 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 8/15/2013
Posts: 13,237
Location: Vacuum
wukan wrote:
Swenani wrote:
wukan wrote:
Quote:
Can we transport goods cheaply without infrastructure? Can we attain that competitive edge on fear


Yes you can transport goods cheaply without expensive infrastructure. If you are manufacturing for export why not locate the industries at the coastal belt or it is re-export locate the industries in kisumu



How would you transport the raw materials? E.g Assume you are exporting tea and the raw materials come from Kericho and the factory is in Mombasa? Also, are raw materials cheap to transport or finished goods?


Are you saying when Brooke Bond started tea exports in 1924 they needed the SGR? Read the sentence in context you don't need advanced capital intensive infrastructure to establish industry.


@Wukan , I'm not arguing for expensive infrastructural projects. You should provide realistic examples that fit into the context not theoretical non starter examples. The example you gave about can't work keeping other factors of production constant.Fact is that, it is cheaper to transport finished products than equivalent raw materials required to process the same amount of finished products.

Can you therefore give an example of inexpensive TRANSPORTATION of goods not INFRASTRUCTURE required to establish an INDUSTRY. Read the context of your argument before giving examples.


If Obiero did it, Who Am I?
aemathenge
#125 Posted : Thursday, February 22, 2018 11:13:02 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/18/2008
Posts: 3,434
Location: Kerugoya
Copy and Paste

Quote:

The Kenyan Government has raised $2 billion (Sh 200B) in a dollar denominated Eurobond sale on Wednesday which is split equally between 10- and 30-year tranches.

The 10 year bond will yield a coupon of 7.25% while the 30 year will yield a 8.25%.

Citi, JPMorgan, Standard Bank and Standard Chartered Bank managed the transaction.

As of yesterday afternoon, it was reported that the order book of the new issue was up to US$13.3 billion against govt’s target of US$2 Billion, suggesting huge foreign appetite for the country’s debt.

Kenya returned to international debt markets to cover its financing needs in addition to lightening the debt-servicing burden.

Of the $2 billion raised on Wednesday, $750M will go towards settling some of the foreign debts that mature before June.


Source Link From The Kenyan Wall Street
KulaRaha
#126 Posted : Thursday, February 22, 2018 12:04:29 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
Who wouldnt want to buy 10 yr USD paper at 7.25%?

Only a fool would pay that much...
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
Much Know
#127 Posted : Thursday, February 22, 2018 12:34:23 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/6/2008
Posts: 3,548
Many of this Rich countries and economies owe the poor Kenyan farmers several more times more, and it looks like they are all agreeing to pay up, our debt is insignificant, our creditors owe us trillions, wasi wasi mingi kama kuku ni ya nini?
A New Kenya
KulaRaha
#128 Posted : Thursday, February 22, 2018 12:50:29 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
Much Know wrote:
Many of this Rich countries and economies owe the poor Kenyan farmers several more times more, and it looks like they are all agreeing to pay up, our debt is insignificant, our creditors owe us trillions, wasi wasi mingi kama kuku ni ya nini?


Wow, pls share details of all these nations who owe us money?

This is a first...I'm surprised no one talks about this information.

smile
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
Much Know
#129 Posted : Thursday, February 22, 2018 1:00:28 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/6/2008
Posts: 3,548
KulaRaha wrote:
Much Know wrote:
Many of this Rich countries and economies owe the poor Kenyan farmers several more times more, and it looks like they are all agreeing to pay up, our debt is insignificant, our creditors owe us trillions, wasi wasi mingi kama kuku ni ya nini?


Wow, pls share details of all these nations who owe us money?

This is a first...I'm surprised no one talks about this information.

smile

We started receiving this money in 2015, was all over press, but more is coming, even ICC said they want to get involved, in which hole have you been living? Google carbon footprint, this is ancient news and SDG goals make it certain, their is no escape from climate change obligations e.t.c.
A New Kenya
wukan
#130 Posted : Thursday, February 22, 2018 1:05:56 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,590
KulaRaha wrote:
Who wouldnt want to buy 10 yr USD paper at 7.25%?

Only a fool would pay that much...


smile
KulaRaha
#131 Posted : Thursday, February 22, 2018 1:33:04 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
Much Know wrote:
KulaRaha wrote:
Much Know wrote:
Many of this Rich countries and economies owe the poor Kenyan farmers several more times more, and it looks like they are all agreeing to pay up, our debt is insignificant, our creditors owe us trillions, wasi wasi mingi kama kuku ni ya nini?


Wow, pls share details of all these nations who owe us money?

This is a first...I'm surprised no one talks about this information.

smile

We started receiving this money in 2015, was all over press, but more is coming, even ICC said they want to get involved, in which hole have you been living? Google carbon footprint, this is ancient news and SDG goals make it certain, their is no escape from climate change obligations e.t.c.


Oh, so lending us money at 7.25% is "paying us back"?

d'oh!
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
Musimo
#132 Posted : Thursday, February 22, 2018 2:01:13 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/3/2015
Posts: 118
Location: Nairobi
An old man sitting on a stool can see farther than a young man who has climbed a tree.
I recall sometime back when mumias wanted to do sugarcane plantations around the tana delta area then process the same in kakamega, thus raising output and lowering prices based on two points: 1. Bulk production of cane plus transportation upwards would reduce the price per tonne of cane, so that(for example) if farmers want to be paid sh. 4000 per tonne for 100,000 tonnes while mumias works to produce cane at sh.2000 per tonne for 500,000 tonnes, then cane purchases/acquisition would end up at {(2000*500000)+(4000*100000)/(500000+100000)} thus approximately sh.2350 per tonne Improving their extraction processes and it would be evident that the sugar would be as competitive as brazilian and/or zambian sugar. 2. Weather in areas like kwale, where KISCOL is irrigating sugarcane and says maturity is a year compared to 18 months for cane in western kenya. Thus in 3 years, cane in the coastal area has been harvested 3 times compared to 2 in western kenya. I think you get the drift of the production and crushing capacity item. Same strategy with maize, galana kulalu is working towards producing ~2 million bags of maize, per bag costs would be drastically lowered when mixed with maize bought at sh. 3000 per bag from farmers. The maize stocks would also be able to support the animal farming industry via production of silage, enabling milk yields remain constant throughout the year and to some extent lower milk prices due to lower feed costs and stable milk production. Target is to feed ourselves and become net food exporters. The loans we are crying about would be easier to clear,seeing how in 2017 we spent between 40 and 60 billion in subsidies for maize and sugar. With those savings and even more exports (e.g. selling maize and handling logistics for NGOs in South Sudan, Southern Ethiopia, Somalia, CAR, DR Congo...the potential becomes clearer by the day.
Let's ignore the busy-bodies called activists who would rather we let rivers flow all the way to the ocean instead of utilizing the waters for our benefit, lets take economists speak on costs not being viable with a pinch of salt. These are not investments that are supposed to bring/show returns in 3-5 years; they are expected to last a lifetime, just like the metre gauge line has for the last 100+ years. Rewards will come.
Much Know
#133 Posted : Thursday, February 22, 2018 2:04:44 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/6/2008
Posts: 3,548
wukan wrote:
KulaRaha wrote:
Who wouldnt want to buy 10 yr USD paper at 7.25%?

Only a fool would pay that much...


smile

You must start somewhere, it will come down to circa 3%, you must admit our Muthamaki is a financial genius of the highest caliber.
A New Kenya
Swenani
#134 Posted : Thursday, February 22, 2018 2:09:08 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 8/15/2013
Posts: 13,237
Location: Vacuum
Much Know wrote:
wukan wrote:
KulaRaha wrote:
Who wouldnt want to buy 10 yr USD paper at 7.25%?

Only a fool would pay that much...


smile

You must start somewhere, it will come down to circa 3%, you must admit our Muthamaki is a financial genius of the highest caliber.

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
If Obiero did it, Who Am I?
aemathenge
#135 Posted : Thursday, February 22, 2018 2:42:52 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/18/2008
Posts: 3,434
Location: Kerugoya
Musimo wrote:
An old man sitting on a stool can see farther than a young man who has climbed a tree.

I recall sometime back when Mumias wanted to do sugarcane plantations around the Tana Delta area then process the same in Kakamega, thus raising output and lowering prices based on two points:

(1.) Bulk production of cane plus transportation upwards would reduce the price per tonne of cane,

....so that (for example) if farmers want to be paid Kshs. 4,000 per tonne for 100,000 tonnes while Mumias works to produce cane at Kshs. 2,000 per tonne for 500,000 tonnes, then cane purchases/acquisition would end up at {(2000*500000)+(4000*100000)/(500000+100000)}

…thus approximately Ksh. 2,350 per tonne Improving their extraction processes and it would be evident that the sugar would be as competitive as Brazilian and/or Zambian sugar.

(2.) Weather in areas like Kwale, where KISCOL is irrigating sugarcane and says maturity is a year compared to 18 months for cane in western Kenya.

Thus in 3 years, cane in the coastal area has been harvested 3 times compared to 2 in western Kenya.

I think you get the drift of the production and crushing capacity item.

Same strategy with maize.

Galana Kulalu is working towards producing ~2 million bags of maize.

Per bag costs would be drastically lowered when mixed with maize bought at Kshs. 3,000 per bag from farmers.

The maize stocks would also be able to support the animal farming industry via production of silage, enabling milk yields remain constant throughout the year and to some extent lower milk prices due to lower feed costs and stable milk production.

Target is to feed ourselves and become net food exporters.

The loans we are crying about would be easier to clear, seeing how in 2017 we spent between 40 and 60 billion in subsidies for maize and sugar.

With those savings and even more exports (e.g. selling maize and handling logistics for NGOs in South Sudan, Southern Ethiopia, Somalia, CAR, DR Congo...the potential becomes clearer by the day.

Let's ignore the busy-bodies called activists who would rather we let rivers flow all the way to the ocean instead of utilizing the waters for our benefit,

Lets take economists speak on costs not being viable with a pinch of salt.

These are not investments that are supposed to bring/show returns in 3-5 years.

They are expected to last a lifetime, just like the metre gauge line has for the last 100+ years.

Rewards will come.


I have tried but I simply cannot make head or tail of what he is rumbling on about.
Angelica _ann
#136 Posted : Thursday, February 22, 2018 2:54:52 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,908
aemathenge wrote:
Musimo wrote:
An old man sitting on a stool can see farther than a young man who has climbed a tree.

I recall sometime back when Mumias wanted to do sugarcane plantations around the Tana Delta area then process the same in Kakamega, thus raising output and lowering prices based on two points:

(1.) Bulk production of cane plus transportation upwards would reduce the price per tonne of cane,

....so that (for example) if farmers want to be paid Kshs. 4,000 per tonne for 100,000 tonnes while Mumias works to produce cane at Kshs. 2,000 per tonne for 500,000 tonnes, then cane purchases/acquisition would end up at {(2000*500000)+(4000*100000)/(500000+100000)}

…thus approximately Ksh. 2,350 per tonne Improving their extraction processes and it would be evident that the sugar would be as competitive as Brazilian and/or Zambian sugar.

(2.) Weather in areas like Kwale, where KISCOL is irrigating sugarcane and says maturity is a year compared to 18 months for cane in western Kenya.

Thus in 3 years, cane in the coastal area has been harvested 3 times compared to 2 in western Kenya.

I think you get the drift of the production and crushing capacity item.

Same strategy with maize.

Galana Kulalu is working towards producing ~2 million bags of maize.

Per bag costs would be drastically lowered when mixed with maize bought at Kshs. 3,000 per bag from farmers.

The maize stocks would also be able to support the animal farming industry via production of silage, enabling milk yields remain constant throughout the year and to some extent lower milk prices due to lower feed costs and stable milk production.

Target is to feed ourselves and become net food exporters.

The loans we are crying about would be easier to clear, seeing how in 2017 we spent between 40 and 60 billion in subsidies for maize and sugar.

With those savings and even more exports (e.g. selling maize and handling logistics for NGOs in South Sudan, Southern Ethiopia, Somalia, CAR, DR Congo...the potential becomes clearer by the day.

Let's ignore the busy-bodies called activists who would rather we let rivers flow all the way to the ocean instead of utilizing the waters for our benefit,

Lets take economists speak on costs not being viable with a pinch of salt.

These are not investments that are supposed to bring/show returns in 3-5 years.

They are expected to last a lifetime, just like the metre gauge line has for the last 100+ years.

Rewards will come.


I have tried but I simply cannot make head or tail of what he is rumbling on about.


Galana Kulalu again, ok Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
hardwood
#137 Posted : Thursday, February 22, 2018 3:05:49 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/28/2015
Posts: 9,562
Location: Rodi Kopany, Homa Bay
aemathenge wrote:
Musimo wrote:

Let's ignore the busy-bodies called activists who would rather we let rivers flow all the way to the ocean instead of utilizing the waters for our benefit,

Lets take economists speak on costs not being viable with a pinch of salt.

These are not investments that are supposed to bring/show returns in 3-5 years.

They are expected to last a lifetime, just like the metre gauge line has for the last 100+ years.

Rewards will come.


I have tried but I simply cannot make head or tail of what he is rumbling on about.


He has a very important point. Why should water be flowing for 500km, unutilized, from the central highlands and mt Kenya all the way to the indian ocean? Ukambani and coast should be Kenya's bread basket after taking advantage of the river tana and athi. Just like egypt has become a bread basket after utilizing the nile, and that is where we import rice, wheat, grapes and oranges from. Or the way Israelis have utilized the river Jordan. But it seems kenyans are dumb, unlike the jews and egyptians.
aemathenge
#138 Posted : Thursday, February 22, 2018 3:18:04 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/18/2008
Posts: 3,434
Location: Kerugoya
hardwood wrote:
aemathenge wrote:
Musimo wrote:

Let's ignore the busy-bodies called activists who would rather we let rivers flow all the way to the ocean instead of utilizing the waters for our benefit,

Lets take economists speak on costs not being viable with a pinch of salt.

These are not investments that are supposed to bring/show returns in 3-5 years.

They are expected to last a lifetime, just like the metre gauge line has for the last 100+ years.

Rewards will come.


I have tried but I simply cannot make head or tail of what he is rumbling on about.


He has a very important point. Why should water be flowing for 500km, unutilized, from the central highlands and mt Kenya all the way to the indian ocean? Ukambani and coast should be Kenya's bread basket after taking advantage of the river tana and athi. Just like egypt has utilised the nile in Egypt where we import rice, wheat, grapes and oranges from. Or the way Israelis have utilized the river Jordan. But it seems kenyans are dumb, unlike the jews and egyptians.


Granted.

Someone somewhere did the Seven Folks Dams while Minji Minji is supervising a Dam in Our County.

My problem is that right now, the Senate is preparing the budget for the next financial year and these busybodies should be sending their wish baskets to them and not wasting bandwidth posting mathogothanio all over the Virtual Republic.
hardwood
#139 Posted : Thursday, February 22, 2018 3:35:30 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/28/2015
Posts: 9,562
Location: Rodi Kopany, Homa Bay
aemathenge wrote:
hardwood wrote:
aemathenge wrote:
Musimo wrote:

Let's ignore the busy-bodies called activists who would rather we let rivers flow all the way to the ocean instead of utilizing the waters for our benefit,

Lets take economists speak on costs not being viable with a pinch of salt.

These are not investments that are supposed to bring/show returns in 3-5 years.

They are expected to last a lifetime, just like the metre gauge line has for the last 100+ years.

Rewards will come.


I have tried but I simply cannot make head or tail of what he is rumbling on about.


He has a very important point. Why should water be flowing for 500km, unutilized, from the central highlands and mt Kenya all the way to the indian ocean? Ukambani and coast should be Kenya's bread basket after taking advantage of the river tana and athi. Just like egypt has utilised the nile in Egypt where we import rice, wheat, grapes and oranges from. Or the way Israelis have utilized the river Jordan. But it seems kenyans are dumb, unlike the jews and egyptians.


Granted.

Someone somewhere did the Seven Folks Dams while Minji Minji is supervising a Dam in Our County.

My problem is that right now, the Senate is preparing the budget for the next financial year and these busybodies should be sending their wish baskets to them and not wasting bandwidth posting mathogothanio all over the Virtual Republic.


Very sad that we are always complaining about flooding and crocodiles in the tana delta, while Egyptians are making billions cultivating the Nile delta and selling to us, even with their annual flooding and crocodiles.
hardwood
#140 Posted : Thursday, February 22, 2018 3:57:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/28/2015
Posts: 9,562
Location: Rodi Kopany, Homa Bay
What if the county govts of mayakos, makueni, embu, meru, garissa, tana river, kilifi supplied water pumps for irrigation for all those living within 10km of the 500km tana and Athi rivers? Or the county govts compulsorily acquired the land for food security like egypt has done. Those counties would be feeding kenya and even minting billions from food exports. If egyptians can do it, kenyans surely can. Muwache kulalia masikio.
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