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No Elliot Wave here. Noisemaker makes NSE millions
Cornelius Vanderbilt
#41 Posted : Saturday, February 10, 2018 10:08:22 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/15/2015
Posts: 785
is funny that the chart (TA) bakes in all the fundamental analysis that has been done on a particular security.so which one would you rather study ? the fundamental analysis or the chart.????observe the the chart and interpret it with what works for you fib or Elliot wave or support and resistance..you name it.but TA rules
wukan
#42 Posted : Saturday, February 10, 2018 11:41:09 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 638
Swenani wrote:
Mukiri wrote:
wukan wrote:
Swenani wrote:
wukan wrote:
The same old Safcom tale. Safcom is an old trade been there done that-capital redeployed into better productive trades(cryptos). For every stellar performer there are like 5 monkeys bleeding out a long term portfolio. The annualized 10 yr growth for portfolios at the NSE is a poor 3-7%

The safcom dividend yield of 3-4% is not exactly something to write home about. Cytonn booked a nice trade with KCB at 24 that's 16% yield and +80% capital gains.


Hapa ndio watu wa pundamentals mnapotea heri hawa waganga wa market mad men pyschology akina @karasinga na @Mnandi, Mimi with my 2k shares my average buying price is 5.5 bob, why do you want me to use the current safcom price to calculate my dividend yield? When building a house for rental do you use the initial construction/acquisition cost or the current market price to calculate rental yield?

Infact sisi watu wa river road school of economics we prefer when safaricom yield is lower(suing the current market price) since it translates to more capital gains since total return is more important that dividend yield.

Hata heri hawa waganga wa pyschology wakina Karasinga



You actually believe that Kshs 10,000 of 1970 is the same as kshs 10,000 of the year 2018Pray Pray Pray So what is the yield of my grandpa's kenya breweries shares bought in the 70ssmile smile

You remind me of the river road kanjuras who took control of the nairobi city council in 1980. They decided there is no need to carry out regular valuation of city plots. To this day I still pay land rates based on the 1982 valuation roll. So isorite...tuendelee na style hiyo hiyo tujienjoy



Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Kulala hapana mbaya after kushiba. There's a 'Do not disturb' sign.


Timing is subjective and relative.While you might brag about making 50K in a month, someone else would wonder why you've to wait for a month to make 50K yet s/he can make that in a day.

But none of you so far has answered my questiobn as to how much you usually invest to make 50K in a month? Ama hii ni hot air mnajigamba nayo?

I want to annualize your returns and compare it over the 10 yr period


I don't stay locked in for 10 years except maybe for Unga group.

since you like calculating kshs 550,505 in total kenya entry around October 2016 abp 17 exit 29.75

I posted my madness here #post4
wukan
#43 Posted : Saturday, February 10, 2018 12:10:28 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 638
Munehisa Homma (1724-1803), also referred to as Sokyu Homma or Sokyu
Honma, was a wealthy rice merchant and trader from Sakata, Japan who lived
during during the Tokugawa Shogonate.

The Dojima Rice Exchange of Osaka, established in 1697, was the world’s first futures exchange. Initially, only physical rice was traded, but beginning in 1710 afutures market was established where coupons representing future delivery of rice were traded. Homma was a successful trader in this secondary market of trading rice coupons.

Renowned for his ability in trading the rice market, Homma became a financial advisor to the government and was even awarded the rank of honorary Samurai.

He is widely credited as a pioneer in technical analysis and as the father of Japanese Candlestick charting. In 1755, he wrote The Fountain of Gold - The Three Monkey Record of Money, a text focused on market psychology.
Mukiri
#44 Posted : Saturday, February 10, 2018 7:49:17 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,086
There's a reason why @Karasinga and Mnandii's posts are the most anticipated?

Philippians 4:11-13
MugundaMan
#45 Posted : Sunday, February 11, 2018 6:23:17 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/8/2018
Posts: 128
wukan wrote:
Munehisa Homma (1724-1803), also referred to as Sokyu Homma or Sokyu
Honma, was a wealthy rice merchant and trader from Sakata, Japan who lived
during during the Tokugawa Shogonate.

The Dojima Rice Exchange of Osaka, established in 1697, was the world’s first futures exchange. Initially, only physical rice was traded, but beginning in 1710 afutures market was established where coupons representing future delivery of rice were traded. Homma was a successful trader in this secondary market of trading rice coupons.

Renowned for his ability in trading the rice market, Homma became a financial advisor to the government and was even awarded the rank of honorary Samurai.

He is widely credited as a pioneer in technical analysis and as the father of Japanese Candlestick charting. In 1755, he wrote The Fountain of Gold - The Three Monkey Record of Money, a text focused on market psychology.


Laughing out loudly

Is that the BEST example of a famous TA adherent who seems to be successful? An example from the 1700's! SMH.
Note also;

1. His family was already very wealthy before he was born. From guess what? Elliot waving? Nope. Simple good old tangible wali (rice)

2. He was a commodity trader, not a stock trader. Two compleeeetely different animals.

3. In true typical TA fashion, they never show us the numbers. I can bet my bottom shilling that he squandered a lot of his family wealth on his candlestick experiments, always highlighting his wins but never his massive losses. This is the blueprint of every TA trader.

Many moons ago, I once worked in a foreign country in the same office with a Russian who would TA trade all his savings as a side hustle. He would always boast about how much money he was making, charting his way to imminent riches. I told him; Yuri, leave those things alone my friend, they will kill you. That day he was very defensive about my comments to the point he did not speak to me for a week.

A year and a half on he had lost everything, yet was still trading furiously with his bulging eyes fixed to his Bloomberg Terminal.

Shortly after I heard he was applying to go to Canada to "get a fresh start." Packed his humble box of charts and pencils, depressed looking face on his last day. I will never forget that look. Out of the door he shuffled and was never seen again.
"The LORD God took the man and put him in the Garden of Eden to work it and take care of it."
~ Genesis 2:15



Swenani
#46 Posted : Sunday, February 11, 2018 12:39:00 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 8/15/2013
Posts: 12,288
Location: Vacuum
MugundaMan wrote:
wukan wrote:
Munehisa Homma (1724-1803), also referred to as Sokyu Homma or Sokyu
Honma, was a wealthy rice merchant and trader from Sakata, Japan who lived
during during the Tokugawa Shogonate.

The Dojima Rice Exchange of Osaka, established in 1697, was the world’s first futures exchange. Initially, only physical rice was traded, but beginning in 1710 afutures market was established where coupons representing future delivery of rice were traded. Homma was a successful trader in this secondary market of trading rice coupons.

Renowned for his ability in trading the rice market, Homma became a financial advisor to the government and was even awarded the rank of honorary Samurai.

He is widely credited as a pioneer in technical analysis and as the father of Japanese Candlestick charting. In 1755, he wrote The Fountain of Gold - The Three Monkey Record of Money, a text focused on market psychology.


Laughing out loudly

Is that the BEST example of a famous TA adherent who seems to be successful? An example from the 1700's! SMH.
Note also;

1. His family was already very wealthy before he was born. From guess what? Elliot waving? Nope. Simple good old tangible wali (rice)

2. He was a commodity trader, not a stock trader. Two compleeeetely different animals.

3. In true typical TA fashion, they never show us the numbers. I can bet my bottom shilling that he squandered a lot of his family wealth on his candlestick experiments, always highlighting his wins but never his massive losses. This is the blueprint of every TA trader.

Many moons ago, I once worked in a foreign country in the same office with a Russian who would TA trade all his savings as a side hustle. He would always boast about how much money he was making, charting his way to imminent riches. I told him; Yuri, leave those things alone my friend, they will kill you. That day he was very defensive about my comments to the point he did not speak to me for a week.

A year and a half on he had lost everything, yet was still trading furiously with his bulging eyes fixed to his Bloomberg Terminal.

Shortly after I heard he was applying to go to Canada to "get a fresh start." Packed his humble box of charts and pencils, depressed looking face on his last day. I will never forget that look. Out of the door he shuffled and was never seen again.


Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Marry a woman who can cook or a man who can provide food.Don't marry for love or beauty, because love dies,beauty fades but hunger stays
VituVingiSana
#47 Posted : Monday, February 12, 2018 1:37:55 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 14,018
Location: Nairobi
MugundaMan wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Mugundaman: "Charlie Munger for example was not the sharpest tool in the shed but he latched on to Buffett's tail and waited 30 years and the rest is history."

#KuweniSerious ... Charlie is brilliant! Buffett says so himself! Have you listened to Charlie speak? Charlie joined up with Buffett but he was already very wealthy at the time.


VVS,
lol, give me a break, brother. I hope you are not confusing book smarts or "what Buffett/the media said" about Charlie for real smarts that deliver tangible results. Long stories on podiums don't count. If he was so smart, how come he isn't mentioned in the league of your hero WB? What he had before WB was chump change in the big scheme of things and you know it. His biggest achievement to date has been WB granting him space under his wing.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlie_Munger

"According to Buffett's essay, "The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville," published in 1984, Munger's investment partnership generated compound annual returns of 19.8% during the 1962–75 period compared to a 5.0% annual appreciation rate for the Dow."

http://www.telegraph.co....uffetts-right-hand-man/

"But Mr Munger's success pre-dates his formal involvement at Berkshire. Between 1962 and 1975 he ran a partnership for a group of investors, producing annual returns of around 20pc against less than 5pc for the Dow Jones Industrial average."

Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
wukan
#48 Posted : Monday, February 12, 2018 7:11:29 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 638
VituVingiSana wrote:
MugundaMan wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Mugundaman: "Charlie Munger for example was not the sharpest tool in the shed but he latched on to Buffett's tail and waited 30 years and the rest is history."

#KuweniSerious ... Charlie is brilliant! Buffett says so himself! Have you listened to Charlie speak? Charlie joined up with Buffett but he was already very wealthy at the time.


VVS,
lol, give me a break, brother. I hope you are not confusing book smarts or "what Buffett/the media said" about Charlie for real smarts that deliver tangible results. Long stories on podiums don't count. If he was so smart, how come he isn't mentioned in the league of your hero WB? What he had before WB was chump change in the big scheme of things and you know it. His biggest achievement to date has been WB granting him space under his wing.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlie_Munger

"According to Buffett's essay, "The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville," published in 1984, Munger's investment partnership generated compound annual returns of 19.8% during the 1962–75 period compared to a 5.0% annual appreciation rate for the Dow."

http://www.telegraph.co....uffetts-right-hand-man/

"But Mr Munger's success pre-dates his formal involvement at Berkshire. Between 1962 and 1975 he ran a partnership for a group of investors, producing annual returns of around 20pc against less than 5pc for the Dow Jones Industrial average."



From that bio-book "Snowball" you realize Charlie Munger was one impatient TA analyst. "He wanted to get really rich, really fast. He and Roy Tolles made bets on whose portfolio would be up one hundred percent in a year. And he was willing to borrow money to make money...Munger did enormous trades like British Columbia Power which was selling at at around $19 and being taken over by the Canadian government at a little more than $22. Munger put not just his whole partnership, but all the money he had, and all that he could borrow into an arbitage on this single stock...when the transaction went through, the deal paid off handsomely."


Fyatu
#49 Posted : Monday, February 12, 2018 8:49:07 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,078
Location: Nakuru
MugundaMan wrote:
Source

Quote:
The stock market is growing, and many people are taking advantage of it to invest their money. However, so many people lack the general knowledge on the best investment plans. Alois Chami, who has shares in nearly all the NSE listed firms and more than 44 years experience in the stock market gives his advice on stock market. He is a constant feature at most AGMs and very vocal on issues relating to the companies he has invested in.

Get some stocks: Once you invest in stock exchange, you become a sleeping partner and the company becomes active. Later on you get profits and dividends. The initial capital you gave, which is your money, is protected. Nowadays there are regulations from the CMA and the NSE that protect shareholders in case a company goes under.

Be bold: When you want to invest, you have to have some confidence about it. When I started out, I would invest half of my salary in shares. I started alone, without anybody advising me. I went to the stock exchange back in 1973, found people on the trading floor and I got about three brokers. They told me “If you buy from this counter, if it is low today and goes up tomorrow and you come and sell, you will getSee Also: An investment product that pays Sh25k for Sh600 invested additional money.” I was inspired because I figured that since I will not have physically worked for that money, unlike in my 9-5 job, there was a good future in it. I started right away.

Go to the banks: If you want to start from scratch, approach any stockbroker for advice. We depend on them for whatever we do; buying and selling. Nowadays they are found within banks, which have taken over stock broking through subsidiaries and it is the best way because they keep money and cannot be broke. If the stock broker is weak, the bank supports the brokerage side with its own money, unlike before when it was done by companies owned by individual people who would sometimes lose money.

Buy while the prices are low: The best time to invest is when the company prices are low. This has been my guiding principle all through. Watch them, and if the company works well and the shares prices go high, then you can offload some.

You will not always get it right: We invested in some companies that went under later, like Kenya Finance. Nowadays that does not happen because there are regulations, but sometimes we also buy into companies that do not give dividends. Those mistakes are unforeseen.

They only appear when you have already bought shares. If you invest in a company which is starting out, you can buy shares at Sh10 and then it slows down and starts selling at Sh5. It is not a mistake of your own making but of the company that has listed itself on the stock exchange. You cannot avoid that, sometimes.

Read the signs: Monitor the stock exchange to see how share prices are performing. Also, if a company has good results yearly and quarterly, it gives you an upper hand of knowing whether it is doing well.

Stay informed: Companies announce their quarterly reports in the press. For shareholders, they also post brochures and sometimes brokers know how different companies are performing. Performance of a company also depends on the CEOs and Finance Directors.

Keep them on their toes: You do this by asking questions. I ask so many questions and sometimes I call companies I have invested in, wanting to talk to CEOs and they give me a chance. AGMs are must attend events for me as it gives me the opportunity to continue asking questions.

Learn some accounting: When you go to the AGMs and meetings where companies announce results, they will give you a big booklet that has balance sheets, cash flow statements, profit and loss statements and so on. I did accounting in 1965, so I know a bit of it. When you understand accounting, you are able to ask the right questions. That way, you get specific answers. If you smell a rat, you can sell your stock.

Diversify your portfolio: I decided to have many companies which are listed on the stock exchange in my portfolio, so that if one does not do well, another one doing well will recover my loss. I wanted to buy in many because some do not pay dividends, while others will pay big dividends and that covers the weak ones.


The simple moral of the story, time is your friend in the market. You don't have to be particularly bright or analytical if you are a long termer. Charlie Munger for example was not the sharpest tool in the shed but he latched on to Buffett's tail and waited 30 years and the rest is history. Makes a cruel mockery of the Elliot Wave crew Drool


I am a little bit confused by your argument @Mugundaman. On the one hand you suggest that one can make money in the stock market if they are in it for the long haul but on the other you are saying stock market is gambling and that only tangible things like cows,goats, dogs and a plot in Moyale are most viable.Please come out clean na hii kizungumkuti
Mnataka nifanye nini jameni?? d'oh! d'oh!
VituVingiSana
#50 Posted : Monday, February 12, 2018 8:57:12 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 14,018
Location: Nairobi
wukan wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
MugundaMan wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Mugundaman: "Charlie Munger for example was not the sharpest tool in the shed but he latched on to Buffett's tail and waited 30 years and the rest is history."

#KuweniSerious ... Charlie is brilliant! Buffett says so himself! Have you listened to Charlie speak? Charlie joined up with Buffett but he was already very wealthy at the time.


VVS,
lol, give me a break, brother. I hope you are not confusing book smarts or "what Buffett/the media said" about Charlie for real smarts that deliver tangible results. Long stories on podiums don't count. If he was so smart, how come he isn't mentioned in the league of your hero WB? What he had before WB was chump change in the big scheme of things and you know it. His biggest achievement to date has been WB granting him space under his wing.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlie_Munger

"According to Buffett's essay, "The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville," published in 1984, Munger's investment partnership generated compound annual returns of 19.8% during the 1962–75 period compared to a 5.0% annual appreciation rate for the Dow."

http://www.telegraph.co....uffetts-right-hand-man/

"But Mr Munger's success pre-dates his formal involvement at Berkshire. Between 1962 and 1975 he ran a partnership for a group of investors, producing annual returns of around 20pc against less than 5pc for the Dow Jones Industrial average."



From that bio-book "Snowball" you realize Charlie Munger was one impatient TA analyst. "He wanted to get really rich, really fast. He and Roy Tolles made bets on whose portfolio would be up one hundred percent in a year. And he was willing to borrow money to make money...Munger did enormous trades like British Columbia Power which was selling at at around $19 and being taken over by the Canadian government at a little more than $22. Munger put not just his whole partnership, but all the money he had, and all that he could borrow into an arbitage on this single stock...when the transaction went through, the deal paid off handsomely."



Not TA, Munger was a FA guy but when a gift horse looks you in the mouth one doesn't resist! [Of course, there was a risk the deal would not go through].

[Not quite the same but to illustrate. I am not considering time value of money in this illustration]
If the suspension on Rea had been lifted and one is (relatively) certain that the Robinows would have bought Rea 40/- then buying at a price lower than 40/- would be profitable.

Then there were those who thought (correctly) that rival bidders would pop up. And they did. There were 2 groups [VIP and Centum] that pushed the price up to 85/-. Someone who had done their math might have even paid 50/- (above the Robinows initial offer) and made a good profit at 85/-

Today, there's Unga at 40/- [Seaboard] but there are others who think it should be higher. If one believes a higher offer will come in can buy [if so allowed] at 40+.

Carbacid was suspended from trading by the CMA when BOC expressed an interest in buying it. Matiba sold his stake by private treaty to Centum which then sold the Carbacid shares at a decent profit after the suspension was lifted.

This is not about TA but "price catching up with value" and often this takes guts, liquidity, conviction and foresight.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ericsson
#51 Posted : Monday, February 12, 2018 11:56:49 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 4,681
Location: NAIROBI
The NSE has caught a cold.
Gains are being sneezed out
MugundaMan
#52 Posted : Monday, February 12, 2018 5:14:21 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/8/2018
Posts: 128
Fyatu wrote:

I am a little bit confused by your argument @Mugundaman. On the one hand you suggest that one can make money in the stock market if they are in it for the long haul but on the other you are saying stock market is gambling and that only tangible things like cows,goats, dogs and a plot in Moyale are most viable.Please come out clean na hii kizungumkuti


MugundaMan wrote:
Bottom line, for the average Joe or Jill, it is not a very wise move to expose more than 2-3% (at most) of one's hard earned assets to the casino whether in Kenya or anywhere else on God's green earth IMHO. All things (stocks..and "investors" alike) are monkeys in said casino when all is said and done.


Perhaps this helps? Drool
Shalom
"The LORD God took the man and put him in the Garden of Eden to work it and take care of it."
~ Genesis 2:15



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