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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Angelica _ann
#2801 Posted : Monday, February 05, 2018 10:15:02 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 8,094
mnandii wrote:


Safaricom. Circle wave ((iii)) ended at about 30.00. Expecting a correction for circle wave ((iv)) to level targets 24.80s and 23.00s . Thereafter a move above 30.00s to complete circle wave ((v)).


Not Safaricom, ngumu smile
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
Spikes
#2802 Posted : Monday, February 05, 2018 10:27:45 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,298
Location: Mombasa
Angelica _ann wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Safaricom. Circle wave ((iii)) ended at about 30.00. Expecting a correction for circle wave ((iv)) to level targets 24.80s and 23.00s . Thereafter a move above 30.00s to complete circle wave ((v)).


Not Safaricom, ngumu smile


Obey TA if you want to make quick money!
Life is wholeheartedly embedded in attitude.
heri
#2803 Posted : Monday, February 05, 2018 10:41:08 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 578
Location: nairobi
mnandii wrote:


Safaricom. Circle wave ((iii)) ended at about 30.00. Expecting a correction for circle wave ((iv)) to level targets 24.80s and 23.00s . Thereafter a move above 30.00s to complete circle wave ((v)).


Can you do one for NIC Bank please
Angelica _ann
#2804 Posted : Monday, February 05, 2018 10:46:29 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 8,094
Spikes wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Safaricom. Circle wave ((iii)) ended at about 30.00. Expecting a correction for circle wave ((iv)) to level targets 24.80s and 23.00s . Thereafter a move above 30.00s to complete circle wave ((v)).


Not Safaricom, ngumu smile


Obey TA if you want to make quick money!


Safaricom has not obeyed TA for the last 6 or so years, since it left 3 bob!!!! (I have followed it closely from 5 bob ---- December 2012). All TA on it has not been correct and those who waited for the 'dips' have waited in vain, none has materialised!!! Anyway sawa tu!!!!
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
mnandii
#2805 Posted : Monday, February 05, 2018 10:27:14 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,596
heri wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Safaricom. Circle wave ((iii)) ended at about 30.00. Expecting a correction for circle wave ((iv)) to level targets 24.80s and 23.00s . Thereafter a move above 30.00s to complete circle wave ((v)).


Can you do one for NIC Bank please


Will look into it, though from my previous investigation only Safcom and the NSE 20 Share index were showing clear Elliott Wave patterns.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Spikes
#2806 Posted : Monday, February 05, 2018 10:32:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,298
Location: Mombasa
mnandii wrote:
heri wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Safaricom. Circle wave ((iii)) ended at about 30.00. Expecting a correction for circle wave ((iv)) to level targets 24.80s and 23.00s . Thereafter a move above 30.00s to complete circle wave ((v)).


Can you do one for NIC Bank please


Will look into it, though from my previous investigation only Safcom and the NSE 20 Share index were showing clear Elliott Wave patterns.


@ Mnandii how can you explain the assertion by @ Angelina-Ann that Safaricom for the last six years has never obeyed charts (Elliot Wave)
Life is wholeheartedly embedded in attitude.
Ericsson
#2807 Posted : Wednesday, February 07, 2018 12:00:49 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 4,129
Location: NAIROBI
Close to sh.60bn worth of shareholder value will wbe wiped out today.
VituVingiSana
#2808 Posted : Wednesday, February 07, 2018 1:49:57 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 13,609
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
Close to sh.60bn worth of shareholder value will wbe wiped out today.

But that's what it went up by in the past month. The political situation is worrying.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
wukan
#2809 Posted : Saturday, February 17, 2018 8:20:18 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 533
mnandii wrote:


NSE 20 Share Index. The move to levels below 3540s still in cards. A move below 3670s will be good indication that the scenario is playing out as forecasted.


NSE 20 share at 3703. If coming weeks deliver more soft company earnings like BAT then that's a good indication of the move downwards.
VituVingiSana
#2810 Posted : Saturday, February 17, 2018 3:02:55 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 13,609
Location: Nairobi
wukan wrote:
mnandii wrote:


NSE 20 Share Index. The move to levels below 3540s still in cards. A move below 3670s will be good indication that the scenario is playing out as forecasted.


NSE 20 share at 3703. If coming weeks deliver more soft company earnings like BAT then that's a good indication of the move downwards.

Aren't "poor" results baked in?

Most banks are expected to release lower FY17 vs FY16 results.
Many industrial and manufacturing firms will do the same. BAT has. FTGH will per the profit warning.
Drought affected the plantations.

And so on.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mnandii
#2811 Posted : Monday, February 19, 2018 9:04:06 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,596
Spikes wrote:
mnandii wrote:
heri wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Safaricom. Circle wave ((iii)) ended at about 30.00. Expecting a correction for circle wave ((iv)) to level targets 24.80s and 23.00s . Thereafter a move above 30.00s to complete circle wave ((v)).


Can you do one for NIC Bank please


Will look into it, though from my previous investigation only Safcom and the NSE 20 Share index were showing clear Elliott Wave patterns.


@ Mnandii how can you explain the assertion by @ Angelina-Ann that Safaricom for the last six years has never obeyed charts (Elliot Wave)


The structure of ALL financial markets follow the Elliott Waves. Elliott Waves can explain fundamentals but not the other way round.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#2812 Posted : Monday, February 19, 2018 9:09:13 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,596
mnandii wrote:


Safaricom. Circle wave ((iii)) ended at about 30.00. Expecting a correction for circle wave ((iv)) to level targets 24.80s and 23.00s . Thereafter a move above 30.00s to complete circle wave ((v)).


Quote:
The Safaricom share that has recently hit highs of Sh30 at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) retains a double-digit percentage upside on the back of expected revenue growth from mobile money and data, analysts at ABC Capital say in a new note.

The investment bank estimates a forward fair value price of up to Sh35 for the stock, which at a price of Sh29 last week would represent a premium of 20.7 per cent.

ABC estimates that by 2020, M-Pesa could rise above voice to be the largest source of revenue for the telco, whose net profit for the six months ended September 2017 grew by 9.5 per cent to Sh26.2 billion.


BD LINK

These out of the world projections always come near the end of major bull markets. Strong projections for Safcom are now happening just when it is about to face a major bear market since its listing.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#2813 Posted : Monday, February 19, 2018 9:39:16 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,596
mnandii wrote:


Pp 164

Quote:
...
Monopoly priviledges stifle innovation, so when monopoly power is removed, an industry is allowed to develop. In contrast, upon every single antitrust action against successful non-monopoly corporations (read Safaricom), innovation did (does) not
immediately burst forth. The reason is that each of these successful companies, in a climate of free competition, was precisely the one responsible for the immense innovation (e.g. Mpesa, introduction of High Speed Mobile internet) that had already occurred. These disparate results confirm the difference between the two types of entities.

We can now see that the principle behind the government's actions with respect to these disparate entities is the same: At tops, the government initiates force to stifle free competition and success ( attacks on Safaricom on alleged dominance); at bottoms, it removes force that has stifled free competition and success. This latter impetus takes two forms: withdrawing antitrust actions against successful non-monopoly companies and dissolving actual monopolies. With this knowledge, we again have the ability to do some limited probabilistic forecasting both in terms of predicting actions against monopolies and predicting major social mood changes when those actions occur


Thus, if Safaricom survives the bear market, we should expect governmental attacks against it to reduce as social mood once again turns positive (i.e when the NSE 20 Share Index bottoms and starts the leg up, and if by then it will not have been broken up as intended by the gov., then the impetus to break it up will dissolve).

On the other hand as the bear market probes a bottom, we should expect monopolies such as Posta and Kenya Power to be broken up and new entrants to compete directly with them.


Post #1034 October 2015.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Ericsson
#2814 Posted : Monday, February 19, 2018 10:39:04 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 4,129
Location: NAIROBI
mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Safaricom. Circle wave ((iii)) ended at about 30.00. Expecting a correction for circle wave ((iv)) to level targets 24.80s and 23.00s . Thereafter a move above 30.00s to complete circle wave ((v)).


Quote:
The Safaricom share that has recently hit highs of Sh30 at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) retains a double-digit percentage upside on the back of expected revenue growth from mobile money and data, analysts at ABC Capital say in a new note.

The investment bank estimates a forward fair value price of up to Sh35 for the stock, which at a price of Sh29 last week would represent a premium of 20.7 per cent.

ABC estimates that by 2020, M-Pesa could rise above voice to be the largest source of revenue for the telco, whose net profit for the six months ended September 2017 grew by 9.5 per cent to Sh26.2 billion.


BD LINK

These out of the world projections always come near the end of major bull markets. Strong projections for Safcom are now happening just when it is about to face a major bear market since its listing.


Someone is being paid to prop up the share price
Ericsson
#2815 Posted : Monday, February 19, 2018 10:40:41 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 4,129
Location: NAIROBI
mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Pp 164

Quote:
...
Monopoly priviledges stifle innovation, so when monopoly power is removed, an industry is allowed to develop. In contrast, upon every single antitrust action against successful non-monopoly corporations (read Safaricom), innovation did (does) not
immediately burst forth. The reason is that each of these successful companies, in a climate of free competition, was precisely the one responsible for the immense innovation (e.g. Mpesa, introduction of High Speed Mobile internet) that had already occurred. These disparate results confirm the difference between the two types of entities.

We can now see that the principle behind the government's actions with respect to these disparate entities is the same: At tops, the government initiates force to stifle free competition and success ( attacks on Safaricom on alleged dominance); at bottoms, it removes force that has stifled free competition and success. This latter impetus takes two forms: withdrawing antitrust actions against successful non-monopoly companies and dissolving actual monopolies. With this knowledge, we again have the ability to do some limited probabilistic forecasting both in terms of predicting actions against monopolies and predicting major social mood changes when those actions occur


Thus, if Safaricom survives the bear market, we should expect governmental attacks against it to reduce as social mood once again turns positive (i.e when the NSE 20 Share Index bottoms and starts the leg up, and if by then it will not have been broken up as intended by the gov., then the impetus to break it up will dissolve).

On the other hand as the bear market probes a bottom, we should expect monopolies such as Posta and Kenya Power to be broken up and new entrants to compete directly with them.


Kenya power can't be broken up under Arap Mashamba's watch

Post #1034 October 2015.

AndyC
#2816 Posted : Monday, February 19, 2018 10:48:17 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 4/21/2015
Posts: 42
Ericsson wrote:
mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Safaricom. Circle wave ((iii)) ended at about 30.00. Expecting a correction for circle wave ((iv)) to level targets 24.80s and 23.00s . Thereafter a move above 30.00s to complete circle wave ((v)).


Quote:
The Safaricom share that has recently hit highs of Sh30 at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) retains a double-digit percentage upside on the back of expected revenue growth from mobile money and data, analysts at ABC Capital say in a new note.

The investment bank estimates a forward fair value price of up to Sh35 for the stock, which at a price of Sh29 last week would represent a premium of 20.7 per cent.

ABC estimates that by 2020, M-Pesa could rise above voice to be the largest source of revenue for the telco, whose net profit for the six months ended September 2017 grew by 9.5 per cent to Sh26.2 billion.


BD LINK

These out of the world projections always come near the end of major bull markets. Strong projections for Safcom are now happening just when it is about to face a major bear market since its listing.


Someone is being paid to prop up the share price

If that is true, i hope they do a great job. I too would like to be paidDrool
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