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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Angelica _ann
#2801 Posted : Monday, February 05, 2018 10:15:02 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 9,516
mnandii wrote:


Safaricom. Circle wave ((iii)) ended at about 30.00. Expecting a correction for circle wave ((iv)) to level targets 24.80s and 23.00s . Thereafter a move above 30.00s to complete circle wave ((v)).


Not Safaricom, ngumu smile
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
Spikes
#2802 Posted : Monday, February 05, 2018 10:27:45 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,458
Location: Mombasa
Angelica _ann wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Safaricom. Circle wave ((iii)) ended at about 30.00. Expecting a correction for circle wave ((iv)) to level targets 24.80s and 23.00s . Thereafter a move above 30.00s to complete circle wave ((v)).


Not Safaricom, ngumu smile


Obey TA if you want to make quick money!
Ignorance of the victim is big business for the villain.
heri
#2803 Posted : Monday, February 05, 2018 10:41:08 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 639
Location: nairobi
mnandii wrote:


Safaricom. Circle wave ((iii)) ended at about 30.00. Expecting a correction for circle wave ((iv)) to level targets 24.80s and 23.00s . Thereafter a move above 30.00s to complete circle wave ((v)).


Can you do one for NIC Bank please
Angelica _ann
#2804 Posted : Monday, February 05, 2018 10:46:29 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 9,516
Spikes wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Safaricom. Circle wave ((iii)) ended at about 30.00. Expecting a correction for circle wave ((iv)) to level targets 24.80s and 23.00s . Thereafter a move above 30.00s to complete circle wave ((v)).


Not Safaricom, ngumu smile


Obey TA if you want to make quick money!


Safaricom has not obeyed TA for the last 6 or so years, since it left 3 bob!!!! (I have followed it closely from 5 bob ---- December 2012). All TA on it has not been correct and those who waited for the 'dips' have waited in vain, none has materialised!!! Anyway sawa tu!!!!
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
mnandii
#2805 Posted : Monday, February 05, 2018 10:27:14 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,736
heri wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Safaricom. Circle wave ((iii)) ended at about 30.00. Expecting a correction for circle wave ((iv)) to level targets 24.80s and 23.00s . Thereafter a move above 30.00s to complete circle wave ((v)).


Can you do one for NIC Bank please


Will look into it, though from my previous investigation only Safcom and the NSE 20 Share index were showing clear Elliott Wave patterns.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Spikes
#2806 Posted : Monday, February 05, 2018 10:32:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,458
Location: Mombasa
mnandii wrote:
heri wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Safaricom. Circle wave ((iii)) ended at about 30.00. Expecting a correction for circle wave ((iv)) to level targets 24.80s and 23.00s . Thereafter a move above 30.00s to complete circle wave ((v)).


Can you do one for NIC Bank please


Will look into it, though from my previous investigation only Safcom and the NSE 20 Share index were showing clear Elliott Wave patterns.


@ Mnandii how can you explain the assertion by @ Angelina-Ann that Safaricom for the last six years has never obeyed charts (Elliot Wave)
Ignorance of the victim is big business for the villain.
Ericsson
#2807 Posted : Wednesday, February 07, 2018 12:00:49 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 5,662
Location: NAIROBI
Close to sh.60bn worth of shareholder value will wbe wiped out today.
VituVingiSana
#2808 Posted : Wednesday, February 07, 2018 1:49:57 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 14,907
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
Close to sh.60bn worth of shareholder value will wbe wiped out today.

But that's what it went up by in the past month. The political situation is worrying.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
wukan
#2809 Posted : Saturday, February 17, 2018 8:20:18 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 863
mnandii wrote:


NSE 20 Share Index. The move to levels below 3540s still in cards. A move below 3670s will be good indication that the scenario is playing out as forecasted.


NSE 20 share at 3703. If coming weeks deliver more soft company earnings like BAT then that's a good indication of the move downwards.
VituVingiSana
#2810 Posted : Saturday, February 17, 2018 3:02:55 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 14,907
Location: Nairobi
wukan wrote:
mnandii wrote:


NSE 20 Share Index. The move to levels below 3540s still in cards. A move below 3670s will be good indication that the scenario is playing out as forecasted.


NSE 20 share at 3703. If coming weeks deliver more soft company earnings like BAT then that's a good indication of the move downwards.

Aren't "poor" results baked in?

Most banks are expected to release lower FY17 vs FY16 results.
Many industrial and manufacturing firms will do the same. BAT has. FTGH will per the profit warning.
Drought affected the plantations.

And so on.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mnandii
#2811 Posted : Monday, February 19, 2018 9:04:06 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,736
Spikes wrote:
mnandii wrote:
heri wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Safaricom. Circle wave ((iii)) ended at about 30.00. Expecting a correction for circle wave ((iv)) to level targets 24.80s and 23.00s . Thereafter a move above 30.00s to complete circle wave ((v)).


Can you do one for NIC Bank please


Will look into it, though from my previous investigation only Safcom and the NSE 20 Share index were showing clear Elliott Wave patterns.


@ Mnandii how can you explain the assertion by @ Angelina-Ann that Safaricom for the last six years has never obeyed charts (Elliot Wave)


The structure of ALL financial markets follow the Elliott Waves. Elliott Waves can explain fundamentals but not the other way round.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#2812 Posted : Monday, February 19, 2018 9:09:13 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,736
mnandii wrote:


Safaricom. Circle wave ((iii)) ended at about 30.00. Expecting a correction for circle wave ((iv)) to level targets 24.80s and 23.00s . Thereafter a move above 30.00s to complete circle wave ((v)).


Quote:
The Safaricom share that has recently hit highs of Sh30 at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) retains a double-digit percentage upside on the back of expected revenue growth from mobile money and data, analysts at ABC Capital say in a new note.

The investment bank estimates a forward fair value price of up to Sh35 for the stock, which at a price of Sh29 last week would represent a premium of 20.7 per cent.

ABC estimates that by 2020, M-Pesa could rise above voice to be the largest source of revenue for the telco, whose net profit for the six months ended September 2017 grew by 9.5 per cent to Sh26.2 billion.


BD LINK

These out of the world projections always come near the end of major bull markets. Strong projections for Safcom are now happening just when it is about to face a major bear market since its listing.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#2813 Posted : Monday, February 19, 2018 9:39:16 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,736
mnandii wrote:


Pp 164

Quote:
...
Monopoly priviledges stifle innovation, so when monopoly power is removed, an industry is allowed to develop. In contrast, upon every single antitrust action against successful non-monopoly corporations (read Safaricom), innovation did (does) not
immediately burst forth. The reason is that each of these successful companies, in a climate of free competition, was precisely the one responsible for the immense innovation (e.g. Mpesa, introduction of High Speed Mobile internet) that had already occurred. These disparate results confirm the difference between the two types of entities.

We can now see that the principle behind the government's actions with respect to these disparate entities is the same: At tops, the government initiates force to stifle free competition and success ( attacks on Safaricom on alleged dominance); at bottoms, it removes force that has stifled free competition and success. This latter impetus takes two forms: withdrawing antitrust actions against successful non-monopoly companies and dissolving actual monopolies. With this knowledge, we again have the ability to do some limited probabilistic forecasting both in terms of predicting actions against monopolies and predicting major social mood changes when those actions occur


Thus, if Safaricom survives the bear market, we should expect governmental attacks against it to reduce as social mood once again turns positive (i.e when the NSE 20 Share Index bottoms and starts the leg up, and if by then it will not have been broken up as intended by the gov., then the impetus to break it up will dissolve).

On the other hand as the bear market probes a bottom, we should expect monopolies such as Posta and Kenya Power to be broken up and new entrants to compete directly with them.


Post #1034 October 2015.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Ericsson
#2814 Posted : Monday, February 19, 2018 10:39:04 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 5,662
Location: NAIROBI
mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Safaricom. Circle wave ((iii)) ended at about 30.00. Expecting a correction for circle wave ((iv)) to level targets 24.80s and 23.00s . Thereafter a move above 30.00s to complete circle wave ((v)).


Quote:
The Safaricom share that has recently hit highs of Sh30 at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) retains a double-digit percentage upside on the back of expected revenue growth from mobile money and data, analysts at ABC Capital say in a new note.

The investment bank estimates a forward fair value price of up to Sh35 for the stock, which at a price of Sh29 last week would represent a premium of 20.7 per cent.

ABC estimates that by 2020, M-Pesa could rise above voice to be the largest source of revenue for the telco, whose net profit for the six months ended September 2017 grew by 9.5 per cent to Sh26.2 billion.


BD LINK

These out of the world projections always come near the end of major bull markets. Strong projections for Safcom are now happening just when it is about to face a major bear market since its listing.


Someone is being paid to prop up the share price
Ericsson
#2815 Posted : Monday, February 19, 2018 10:40:41 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 5,662
Location: NAIROBI
mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Pp 164

Quote:
...
Monopoly priviledges stifle innovation, so when monopoly power is removed, an industry is allowed to develop. In contrast, upon every single antitrust action against successful non-monopoly corporations (read Safaricom), innovation did (does) not
immediately burst forth. The reason is that each of these successful companies, in a climate of free competition, was precisely the one responsible for the immense innovation (e.g. Mpesa, introduction of High Speed Mobile internet) that had already occurred. These disparate results confirm the difference between the two types of entities.

We can now see that the principle behind the government's actions with respect to these disparate entities is the same: At tops, the government initiates force to stifle free competition and success ( attacks on Safaricom on alleged dominance); at bottoms, it removes force that has stifled free competition and success. This latter impetus takes two forms: withdrawing antitrust actions against successful non-monopoly companies and dissolving actual monopolies. With this knowledge, we again have the ability to do some limited probabilistic forecasting both in terms of predicting actions against monopolies and predicting major social mood changes when those actions occur


Thus, if Safaricom survives the bear market, we should expect governmental attacks against it to reduce as social mood once again turns positive (i.e when the NSE 20 Share Index bottoms and starts the leg up, and if by then it will not have been broken up as intended by the gov., then the impetus to break it up will dissolve).

On the other hand as the bear market probes a bottom, we should expect monopolies such as Posta and Kenya Power to be broken up and new entrants to compete directly with them.


Kenya power can't be broken up under Arap Mashamba's watch

Post #1034 October 2015.

AndyC
#2816 Posted : Monday, February 19, 2018 10:48:17 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 4/21/2015
Posts: 71
Ericsson wrote:
mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Safaricom. Circle wave ((iii)) ended at about 30.00. Expecting a correction for circle wave ((iv)) to level targets 24.80s and 23.00s . Thereafter a move above 30.00s to complete circle wave ((v)).


Quote:
The Safaricom share that has recently hit highs of Sh30 at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) retains a double-digit percentage upside on the back of expected revenue growth from mobile money and data, analysts at ABC Capital say in a new note.

The investment bank estimates a forward fair value price of up to Sh35 for the stock, which at a price of Sh29 last week would represent a premium of 20.7 per cent.

ABC estimates that by 2020, M-Pesa could rise above voice to be the largest source of revenue for the telco, whose net profit for the six months ended September 2017 grew by 9.5 per cent to Sh26.2 billion.


BD LINK

These out of the world projections always come near the end of major bull markets. Strong projections for Safcom are now happening just when it is about to face a major bear market since its listing.


Someone is being paid to prop up the share price

If that is true, i hope they do a great job. I too would like to be paidDrool
mlennyma
#2817 Posted : Wednesday, February 28, 2018 12:35:51 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 5,862
Location: nairobi
Banks helped pulling down the index,should the cap be halted I forsee the same banks lifting the index I don't know whether this theories factor this unforseen happenings...so far bank shares are warming up to a rally
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
mnandii
#2818 Posted : Sunday, March 11, 2018 4:22:40 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,736
Stocks & Sex: People Conceive Fewer Children Before Economy Contracts

Quote:
You might expect that the crunch of a recession would lead people to put off having kids. It sounds obvious, and conventional wisdom would be on your side. But you’d be wrong.

The truth is that people begin to conceive fewer children before major economic contractions. That relationship is counterintuitive, yet it is exactly what my colleague Robert Prechter suspected he would find 19 years ago when he charted data from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and Dow Jones & Co. going all the way back to 1908.

Prechter observed that conceptions tended to rise and fall with the stock market. Like the stock market, they are a leading economic indicator, sounding the alarm well before the economy contracts.

Like the NBER team, Prechter recognized the economic implications of his research, writing in 1999, “the trends of the economy lag trends in both the stock market and procreation.” But why is that the case? Prechter’s socionomic theory, which motivated his research, provides an answer.

The theory proposes that trends in social mood regulate trends in social behavior, including those in conceptions, the stock market and economic growth. A positive mood prompts feelings of friskiness, daring and confidence, inspiring people in the aggregate to have more children, to send stock prices higher and to become more productive economically. A negative mood prompts feelings of somberness, defensiveness and fear, inspiring people in the aggregate to have fewer children, to send stock prices lower and to become less productive economically. Because people generally can express their friskiness in their trading accounts and in bed sooner than they can expand or contract business, trends in stocks and conceptions tend to lead trends in the economy.




Stocks And SEX
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Mukiri
#2819 Posted : Sunday, March 11, 2018 8:29:21 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,198
mnandii wrote:
Stocks & Sex: People Conceive Fewer Children Before Economy Contracts

Quote:
You might expect that the crunch of a recession would lead people to put off having kids. It sounds obvious, and conventional wisdom would be on your side. But you’d be wrong.

The truth is that people begin to conceive fewer children before major economic contractions. That relationship is counterintuitive, yet it is exactly what my colleague Robert Prechter suspected he would find 19 years ago when he charted data from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and Dow Jones & Co. going all the way back to 1908.

Prechter observed that conceptions tended to rise and fall with the stock market. Like the stock market, they are a leading economic indicator, sounding the alarm well before the economy contracts.

Like the NBER team, Prechter recognized the economic implications of his research, writing in 1999, “the trends of the economy lag trends in both the stock market and procreation.” But why is that the case? Prechter’s socionomic theory, which motivated his research, provides an answer.

The theory proposes that trends in social mood regulate trends in social behavior, including those in conceptions, the stock market and economic growth. A positive mood prompts feelings of friskiness, daring and confidence, inspiring people in the aggregate to have more children, to send stock prices higher and to become more productive economically. A negative mood prompts feelings of somberness, defensiveness and fear, inspiring people in the aggregate to have fewer children, to send stock prices lower and to become less productive economically. Because people generally can express their friskiness in their trading accounts and in bed sooner than they can expand or contract business, trends in stocks and conceptions tend to lead trends in the economy.




Stocks And SEX

On a Sunday?Laughing out loudly We can only begin to guess what you've been upto todaysmile

Proverbs 19:21
mnandii
#2820 Posted : Tuesday, March 13, 2018 8:29:42 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,736
mnandii wrote:
Markets crash not because people think it will do so but because they become certain that it will not.

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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