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The Housing Bubble in Kenya will Burst very soon....
Swenani
#141 Posted : Tuesday, November 14, 2017 10:36:08 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 8/15/2013
Posts: 12,713
Location: Vacuum
maka wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Swenani wrote:
obiero wrote:
2012 wrote:
Saw some apartments in Hatheru Road going for 49m and some have been booked, so I don't what bubble we're talking about.

But on a different note I saw an article in Business Daily that either WB or IMF says Kenyan Banks have not safeguarded themselves against the rising bad debts and they could bring them down... could be from housing loans.

Ideally that 49m house shall get a buyer, but the money used is 99% likely to be proceeds of corruption. 88% of Kenyans earning a decent living cannot afford a home worth more than KES 4,500,000.. 11% can afford >KES 4,500,000 while the remaining 1% can even obtain a condo in NY

source and rink


Exchange bar & #Gossip


But its true do the math...


Where can I get the figures to use in this maths?
Poverty is the root of all evil
maka
#142 Posted : Tuesday, November 14, 2017 11:14:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 10,801
Location: Nairobi
Swenani wrote:
maka wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
Swenani wrote:
obiero wrote:
2012 wrote:
Saw some apartments in Hatheru Road going for 49m and some have been booked, so I don't what bubble we're talking about.

But on a different note I saw an article in Business Daily that either WB or IMF says Kenyan Banks have not safeguarded themselves against the rising bad debts and they could bring them down... could be from housing loans.

Ideally that 49m house shall get a buyer, but the money used is 99% likely to be proceeds of corruption. 88% of Kenyans earning a decent living cannot afford a home worth more than KES 4,500,000.. 11% can afford >KES 4,500,000 while the remaining 1% can even obtain a condo in NY

source and rink


Exchange bar & #Gossip


But its true do the math...


Where can I get the figures to use in this maths?


winda.co.keDrool
possunt quia posse videntur
Horton
#143 Posted : Saturday, December 30, 2017 3:17:46 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,330
Location: Nairobi
This thread was first started in 2009. If we heeded the advice of a good number of the posters, we would have lost a good opportunity.
I own shares in KCB,CYTONN, BRK.B, Almasi Beverages and a few other private small businesses
obiero
#144 Posted : Saturday, December 30, 2017 4:07:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 10,937
Location: nairobi
Horton wrote:
This thread was first started in 2009. If we heeded the advice of a good number of the posters, we would have lost a good opportunity.

True. Wazuans sometimes paralyze each other with group think
DISCLAIMER: @obiero, MBA-MIS, CISA. Opinionated, owner of www.winda.co.ke. Aims to be factual
MugundaMan
#145 Posted : Thursday, January 11, 2018 8:31:22 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/8/2018
Posts: 1,000
Location: Future Dustbowl Citizen
This has got to be one of the funniest threads on Kenyan cyberspace. Many years on the predicted doom hasn't happened.

1. Did I hear some complain about low numbers of mortgage accounts? They should in fact be jumping for joy in celebration that middle and upper class Kenyans actually shun 14+% killer mortgages, save their money and buy cash (or buy migunda and build pole pole), as opposed to casino economies like the USA where they borrow to buy even a hamburger for lunch (on credit cards)!

2. The reasons put forward as to why the housing "bubble" will burst are amusing at best. Yet the most basic one has rarely been discussed on this thread: SUPPLY AND DEMAND. The economic statistics have been out there for years and years; that Kenya in general and Nairobi in particular have a serious housing deficit, which the supply side working overtime will not be able to meet any time soon. Nobody on earth, not even Stalin, has been able to repeal the law of supply and demand.

Bottom line, unless Kenya Inc. completely collapses, Kenyans stop breeding completely and people abandon living in homes and start sleeping in open fields, this housing "bubble" is ending no time soon.
"The best investment on earth is earth" **Target 1000**
Mike Ock
#146 Posted : Thursday, January 11, 2018 5:25:10 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/22/2015
Posts: 598
MugundaMan wrote:
This has got to be one of the funniest threads on Kenyan cyberspace. Many years on the predicted doom hasn't happened.

1. Did I hear some complain about low numbers of mortgage accounts? They should in fact be jumping for joy in celebration that middle and upper class Kenyans actually shun 14+% killer mortgages, save their money and buy cash (or buy migunda and build pole pole), as opposed to casino economies like the USA where they borrow to buy even a hamburger for lunch (on credit cards)!

2. The reasons put forward as to why the housing "bubble" will burst are amusing at best. Yet the most basic one has rarely been discussed on this thread: SUPPLY AND DEMAND. The economic statistics have been out there for years and years; that Kenya in general and Nairobi in particular have a serious housing deficit, which the supply side working overtime will not be able to meet any time soon. Nobody on earth, not even Stalin, has been able to repeal the law of supply and demand.

Bottom line, unless Kenya Inc. completely collapses, Kenyans stop breeding completely and people abandon living in homes and start sleeping in open fields, this housing "bubble" is ending no time soon.


Both sides were kind of right, kind of wrong. The naysayers were kind of right that ordinary mwananchi cannot buy houses at the current rates. They were wrong that the bubble would burst though. The bullish guys were right that the prices would keep going up. Their argument that "Kenyans have money and they will keep buying" was wrong.
Horton
#147 Posted : Thursday, January 11, 2018 8:12:17 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,330
Location: Nairobi
Mike Ock wrote:
MugundaMan wrote:
This has got to be one of the funniest threads on Kenyan cyberspace. Many years on the predicted doom hasn't happened.

1. Did I hear some complain about low numbers of mortgage accounts? They should in fact be jumping for joy in celebration that middle and upper class Kenyans actually shun 14+% killer mortgages, save their money and buy cash (or buy migunda and build pole pole), as opposed to casino economies like the USA where they borrow to buy even a hamburger for lunch (on credit cards)!

2. The reasons put forward as to why the housing "bubble" will burst are amusing at best. Yet the most basic one has rarely been discussed on this thread: SUPPLY AND DEMAND. The economic statistics have been out there for years and years; that Kenya in general and Nairobi in particular have a serious housing deficit, which the supply side working overtime will not be able to meet any time soon. Nobody on earth, not even Stalin, has been able to repeal the law of supply and demand.

Bottom line, unless Kenya Inc. completely collapses, Kenyans stop breeding completely and people abandon living in homes and start sleeping in open fields, this housing "bubble" is ending no time soon.


Both sides were kind of right, kind of wrong. The naysayers were kind of right that ordinary mwananchi cannot buy houses at the current rates. They were wrong that the bubble would burst though. The bullish guys were right that the prices would keep going up. Their argument that "Kenyans have money and they will keep buying" was wrong.


I think bottomline whether Kenyas have money or not is that, people who bought almost any real estate 5years ago are sitting pretty. But now, I think people who will buy THE RIGHT PROPERTY will do quite well in the 5-10 year span.

A good number of people here had said that house prices will struggle. Its always good to be a contrarian, you will always make money if you dont follow herd mentality, think about it, if you are doing what everyone else is doing, will you really make a good return?


I own shares in KCB,CYTONN, BRK.B, Almasi Beverages and a few other private small businesses
itz
#148 Posted : Thursday, January 11, 2018 10:52:49 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/20/2009
Posts: 325
@Horton what is the RIGHT PROPERTY?
Horton
#149 Posted : Friday, January 12, 2018 8:20:03 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,330
Location: Nairobi
itz wrote:
@Horton what is the RIGHT PROPERTY?



So unlike the last 5-10years where any property was sure to do well, this time around you have to put in abit of research. In my opinion the glut in areas like syokimau, kitengela may even out eventually I doubt value and rental income will grow unless ofcourse something magnificient occurs in the area. Pick desirable projects/areas, project what you can see of the area in say 5 years, see what else is coming up in the area, see if its hard renting in the area or there is a solid demand. Figure out what rents similar properties fetch and whether it can help pay Mortgage repayments if you are going that way.
I own shares in KCB,CYTONN, BRK.B, Almasi Beverages and a few other private small businesses
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