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Portfolio Balancing: Avoid Over Exposure To Financial Sector
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,318 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:obiero wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:Ericsson wrote:mamilli wrote:May your projections be realised.I am a net buyer at this point in time and armed to the teeth should the NSE20 get to those levels. Prices to fall to levels we saw in February this year The anticipated downside won't happen, market is irrational to your expectations  Irrationality cuts both ways either through a maniac bull or a severe bear both of which occur without accompanying fundamental changes to warrant the action apparent in the market. At the moment, fundies favour a bear, suggesting that the 6 months mini-rally we just had was the irrational trend. Eventually the market has to price in the reality. We cannot expect the market to rally even with a peaceful resolution of the impasse Tomorrow, more drama at the NSE.. Expect foreigner exits What drama? The board is largely green. At 12.30pm, foreigners are net buyers in ICDC, SCOM, KENO, NIC, DTBK, etc... And there's still time to go. EABL with the largest turnover is neutral as of 12.30pm. As is SCBK. All have trades over 10mn. All the above are trading in the green. This thread is on bank counters.. Note that there was no mention of reds at the NSE.. Foreigner activity largely points to exits.. Someone with accurate information to assist us COOP, IMH, KEGN, KQ, MTNU
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,371 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:obiero wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:Ericsson wrote:mamilli wrote:May your projections be realised.I am a net buyer at this point in time and armed to the teeth should the NSE20 get to those levels. Prices to fall to levels we saw in February this year The anticipated downside won't happen, market is irrational to your expectations Irrationality cuts both ways either through a maniac bull or a severe bear both of which occur without accompanying fundamental changes to warrant the action apparent in the market. At the moment, fundies favour a bear, suggesting that the 6 months mini-rally we just had was the irrational trend. Eventually the market has to price in the reality. We cannot expect the market to rally even with a peaceful resolution of the impasse Tomorrow, more drama at the NSE.. Expect foreigner exits What drama? The board is largely green. At 12.30pm, foreigners are net buyers in ICDC, SCOM, KENO, NIC, DTBK, etc... And there's still time to go. EABL with the largest turnover is neutral as of 12.30pm. As is SCBK. All have trades over 10mn. All the above are trading in the green. This thread is on bank counters.. Note that there was no mention of reds at the NSE.. Foreigner activity largely points to exits.. Someone with accurate information to assist us Nope. @Obiero invest in a myStocks subscription 1.45pm Equity +71% foreigners (120mn turnover) DTBK +22% foreigners (5.8mn turnover) BBK -40% foreigners (6.7mn turnover which is negligible vs Equity) KCB -6% foreigners (39mn turnover) CO-OP, CFC, SCBK are essentially neutral Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,318 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:obiero wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:Ericsson wrote:mamilli wrote:May your projections be realised.I am a net buyer at this point in time and armed to the teeth should the NSE20 get to those levels. Prices to fall to levels we saw in February this year The anticipated downside won't happen, market is irrational to your expectations Irrationality cuts both ways either through a maniac bull or a severe bear both of which occur without accompanying fundamental changes to warrant the action apparent in the market. At the moment, fundies favour a bear, suggesting that the 6 months mini-rally we just had was the irrational trend. Eventually the market has to price in the reality. We cannot expect the market to rally even with a peaceful resolution of the impasse Tomorrow, more drama at the NSE.. Expect foreigner exits What drama? The board is largely green. At 12.30pm, foreigners are net buyers in ICDC, SCOM, KENO, NIC, DTBK, etc... And there's still time to go. EABL with the largest turnover is neutral as of 12.30pm. As is SCBK. All have trades over 10mn. All the above are trading in the green. This thread is on bank counters.. Note that there was no mention of reds at the NSE.. Foreigner activity largely points to exits.. Someone with accurate information to assist us Nope. @Obiero invest in a myStocks subscription 1.45pm Equity +71% foreigners (120mn turnover) DTBK +22% foreigners (5.8mn turnover) BBK -40% foreigners (6.7mn turnover which is negligible vs Equity) KCB -6% foreigners (39mn turnover) CO-OP, CFC, SCBK are essentially neutral Point taken.. Though your figures appear cooked. Foreigners cannot be buying Kenyan bank stocks at this moment COOP, IMH, KEGN, KQ, MTNU
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/1/2014 Posts: 928 Location: sky
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http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/corporate/companies/Bank-owners-Sh20bn-dividend-cut-new-rules/4003102-4229436-s0cfqm/index.htmlInterviews with multiple bank executives indicate that the new accounting rules are expected to diminish dividend payouts and slow down loan book expansion as the lenders react to capital erosion from the provisions and impairments. KCB is expected to take the biggest hit as IFRS9 will supplant the current dual accounting process that has allowed Kenya’s biggest bank to accumulate the largest statutory loan loss reserve of Sh15.3 billion — most of which will go into provisions beginning next month. There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,937
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,318 Location: nairobi
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Stay away from financials until end of Q1 2018. Thank me later COOP, IMH, KEGN, KQ, MTNU
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
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Small fry banks may have issues with IFRS 9 compliance. With reference to KCB Annual report 2016, they reckon the impact on LLPs will be 200-250 BP which doesn’t sound as alarmist as bizdaily.
Seems like there is a lot of contrary information out there though.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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obiero wrote:Stay away from financials until end of Q1 2018. Thank me later Buy rumours sell news. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,371 Location: Nairobi
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Horton wrote:Small fry banks may have issues with IFRS 9 compliance. With reference to KCB Annual report 2016, they reckon the impact on LLPs will be 200-250 BP which doesn’t sound as alarmist as bizdaily.
Seems like there is a lot of contrary information out there though. A lot of cooking is going on at KCB. 200-250 bps of the total loan book as additional NPLs? That's a lot of billions! I use the SLR as my guide & KCB's is the highest (even as a % of capital) among listed banks. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,819 Location: NAIROBI
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VituVingiSana wrote:Horton wrote:Small fry banks may have issues with IFRS 9 compliance. With reference to KCB Annual report 2016, they reckon the impact on LLPs will be 200-250 BP which doesn’t sound as alarmist as bizdaily.
Seems like there is a lot of contrary information out there though. A lot of cooking is going on at KCB. 200-250 bps of the total loan book as additional NPLs? That's a lot of billions! I use the SLR as my guide & KCB's is the highest (even as a % of capital) among listed banks. Kelele ya chura haimzui ng'ombe kunywa maji Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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