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New term President elect Uhuru
FundamentAli
#21 Posted : Thursday, November 23, 2017 10:21:54 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/4/2008
Posts: 1,289
Location: Nairobi
aemathenge wrote:
FRM2011 wrote:
I have started looking at Moi era with some respect.

I DEMAND an apology.

I hold you in great admiration but the moment you start using Moi Error and Respect in the same sentence .......


World Bank stopped lending to Kenya because of massive corruption. He wanted to borrow but the partners could not stomach someone borrowing to enrich himself.
wukan
#22 Posted : Thursday, November 23, 2017 11:55:41 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,590
Infrastructure investment produces the highest returns when it supports already-expanding cities and regions. Yet politicians' tendency is to spend in declining areas like those tarmac roads in the rural areas where goats bask in the tar. If the infrastructure spend can't pay for itself it's malinvestment-capital wasted with no net gain. There is an entire generation "maziwa ya nyayo" that is mostly likely to retire as serfs.

Uhuru's key task in the new term is to fire and replace his economic team if he has one at all.
Kratos
#23 Posted : Thursday, November 23, 2017 12:32:14 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/19/2011
Posts: 1,694
wukan wrote:
Infrastructure investment produces the highest returns when it supports already-expanding cities and regions. Yet politicians' tendency is to spend in declining areas like those tarmac roads in the rural areas where goats bask in the tar. If the infrastructure spend can't pay for itself it's malinvestment-capital wasted with no net gain. There is an entire generation "maziwa ya nyayo" that is mostly likely to retire as serfs.

Uhuru's key task in the new term is to fire and replace his economic team if he has one at all.


Could you be gracious enough and give an example of such a road?

So in your theory, the rural centers should first grow into cities before we can build tarmac roads?


“People will believe a big lie sooner than a little one, and if you repeat it frequently enough, people will sooner or later believe it.” ― Walter C. Langer
wukan
#24 Posted : Thursday, November 23, 2017 12:54:02 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,590
Kratos wrote:
wukan wrote:
Infrastructure investment produces the highest returns when it supports already-expanding cities and regions. Yet politicians' tendency is to spend in declining areas like those tarmac roads in the rural areas where goats bask in the tar. If the infrastructure spend can't pay for itself it's malinvestment-capital wasted with no net gain. There is an entire generation "maziwa ya nyayo" that is mostly likely to retire as serfs.

Uhuru's key task in the new term is to fire and replace his economic team if he has one at all.


Could you be gracious enough and give an example of such a road? Tembea kenya you will see road where a vehicle comes after 4 hours

So in your theory, the rural centers should first grow into cities before we can build tarmac roads? Yes there must be economic density to support the infrastructure. If a decent murram road will do why build a bullet-train.


hardwood
#25 Posted : Thursday, November 23, 2017 12:56:36 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/28/2015
Posts: 9,562
Location: Rodi Kopany, Homa Bay
wukan wrote:
Infrastructure investment produces the highest returns when it supports already-expanding cities and regions. Yet politicians' tendency is to spend in declining areas like those tarmac roads in the rural areas where goats bask in the tar. If the infrastructure spend can't pay for itself it's malinvestment-capital wasted with no net gain. There is an entire generation "maziwa ya nyayo" that is mostly likely to retire as serfs.

Uhuru's key task in the new term is to fire and replace his economic team if he has one at all.


The govt doesn't undertake infrastructure projects eg roads, railways, water, sewer, dams, street lighting etc in order to make a profit. The aim is to improve the lives of the citizens.
wukan
#26 Posted : Thursday, November 23, 2017 2:09:53 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,590
hardwood wrote:
wukan wrote:
Infrastructure investment produces the highest returns when it supports already-expanding cities and regions. Yet politicians' tendency is to spend in declining areas like those tarmac roads in the rural areas where goats bask in the tar. If the infrastructure spend can't pay for itself it's malinvestment-capital wasted with no net gain. There is an entire generation "maziwa ya nyayo" that is mostly likely to retire as serfs.

Uhuru's key task in the new term is to fire and replace his economic team if he has one at all.


The govt doesn't undertake infrastructure projects eg roads, railways, water, sewer, dams, street lighting etc in order to make a profit. The aim is to improve the lives of the citizens.


Who mentioned profit? Read it again.

Where do the resources to undertake infrastructure projects come from? Why does the govt undertake feasibility studies before undertaking the projects? Where does the govt charge water tariffs, sewer services, toll stations if it's just improving the lives of citizens?
Kratos
#27 Posted : Thursday, November 23, 2017 2:40:07 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/19/2011
Posts: 1,694
wukan wrote:
Kratos wrote:
wukan wrote:
Infrastructure investment produces the highest returns when it supports already-expanding cities and regions. Yet politicians' tendency is to spend in declining areas like those tarmac roads in the rural areas where goats bask in the tar. If the infrastructure spend can't pay for itself it's malinvestment-capital wasted with no net gain. There is an entire generation "maziwa ya nyayo" that is mostly likely to retire as serfs.

Uhuru's key task in the new term is to fire and replace his economic team if he has one at all.


Could you be gracious enough and give an example of such a road? Tembea kenya you will see road where a vehicle comes after 4 hours I still insist you give an example so that we can chambua that road together and how unviable it is.

So in your theory, the rural centers should first grow into cities before we can build tarmac roads? Yes there must be economic density to support the infrastructure. If a decent murram road will do why build a bullet-train.




Your theory is contrary to reality. Upon construction of roads and infrastructure there is always major growth of centers along these roads which later develop into towns and later into cities. Kenyan history is awash with such examples (Machakos, Voi, Naivasha etc). Please give one example of where centers grow first then followed by transport network.

“People will believe a big lie sooner than a little one, and if you repeat it frequently enough, people will sooner or later believe it.” ― Walter C. Langer
wukan
#28 Posted : Thursday, November 23, 2017 3:37:47 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,590
Kratos wrote:


Your theory is contrary to reality. Upon construction of roads and infrastructure there is always major growth of centers along these roads which later develop into towns and later into cities. Kenyan history is awash with such examples (Machakos, Voi, Naivasha etc). Please give one example of where centers grow first then followed by transport network.


You are getting the theory wrong. Not all infrastructure investment is bad especially if it addressing a bottle-neck that infrastructure will pay for itself e.g. Thika road. The theory is that infrastructure led growth strategy(China model) like that pursued by the jubilee administration creates a short term boom followed by harmful macroeconomic consequences i.e. inflation, currency collapse. If the infrastructure costs are higher than the economic benefit it generates that's value destruction in the economy. What industries are there in Machakos and Voi or in the numerous small centers along these roads? Naivasha maybe the flower farms.

For an example go to Gikomba market that place has no infrastructure, no roads, not even a fire station yet it grows.

Quote:
'It is a myth that China grew thanks largely to heavy infrastructure investment. It grew due to bold economic liberalisation and institutional reforms, and this growth is now threatened by over-investment in low-grade infrastructure. The lesson for other markets is that policy makers should place their attention on software and deep institutional reforms, and exercise far greater caution in diverting scarce resources to large-scale physical infrastructure projects,

Dr Ansar- Does infrastructure investment lead to
economic growth or economic fragility? Evidence from China

Quote:
We conclude that, contrary to the conventional wisdom, infrastructure investments do not typically lead to economic growth. Overinvesting in underperforming projects instead leads to economic and financial fragility. For China, we find that poorly managed infrastructure investments are a main explanation of surfacing economic and financial problems. We predict that, unless China shifts to a lower level of higher-quality infrastructure investments, the country is headed for an infrastructure-led national financial and economic crisis, which—due to China’s prominent role in the world economy—is likely to also become a crisis internationally. China is not a model to follow
for other economies—emerging or developed—as regards infrastructure investing, but a model to avoid.



limanika
#29 Posted : Thursday, November 23, 2017 4:21:16 PM
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Joined: 9/21/2011
Posts: 2,032
We have a problem nobody wants to talk about. Of the 300b given to counties every year, what percentage of this generates 'real' wealth to feed back to the center?
hardwood
#30 Posted : Thursday, November 23, 2017 4:45:27 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/28/2015
Posts: 9,562
Location: Rodi Kopany, Homa Bay
aemathenge
#31 Posted : Thursday, November 23, 2017 4:47:37 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/18/2008
Posts: 3,434
Location: Kerugoya
limanika wrote:
We have a problem nobody wants to talk about. Of the 300b given to counties every year, what percentage of this generates 'real' wealth to feed back to the center?

Before Ugatuzi, one man had the power to decide which "real" wealth to invest in and in which region/tribe/tribal leader.

Today, after ugatuzi, 3 women and 44 men now take that mantle.

As such, The Sultan may declare Pwani si Kenia and proceed to get a few billions from Kenia's public coffers to invest in "real" wealth projects, as he deems fit.

In that regard, "the problem" you allude to is seeing heated debate, not within national forums as you might want it to but at county level where such debates should actually take place.

In any case, what you deem "real" wealth creation in Nairobbery is quite different from what His Excellency Anyang Nyong deems to be so for his County.
Liv
#32 Posted : Thursday, November 23, 2017 5:47:19 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/14/2006
Posts: 1,311
hardwood wrote:



Really? That's too insensitive to business now.

I don't understand why we need a holiday during the swearing in of the president.
sitaki.kujulikana
#33 Posted : Thursday, November 23, 2017 5:49:59 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/25/2012
Posts: 1,826
hardwood wrote:
wukan wrote:
Infrastructure investment produces the highest returns when it supports already-expanding cities and regions. Yet politicians' tendency is to spend in declining areas like those tarmac roads in the rural areas where goats bask in the tar. If the infrastructure spend can't pay for itself it's malinvestment-capital wasted with no net gain. There is an entire generation "maziwa ya nyayo" that is mostly likely to retire as serfs.

Uhuru's key task in the new term is to fire and replace his economic team if he has one at all.


The govt doesn't undertake infrastructure projects eg roads, railways, water, sewer, dams, street lighting etc in order to make a profit. The aim is to improve the lives of the citizens.

true, also going by that reasoning, there would be no roads connecting major centers, I mean a road connecting isiolo and marsabit and further on to moyale will have large parts without much traffic.
limanika
#34 Posted : Thursday, November 23, 2017 5:56:42 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/21/2011
Posts: 2,032
aemathenge wrote:
limanika wrote:
We have a problem nobody wants to talk about. Of the 300b given to counties every year, what percentage of this generates 'real' wealth to feed back to the center?

Before Ugatuzi, one man had the power to decide which "real" wealth to invest in and in which region/tribe/tribal leader.

Today, after ugatuzi, 3 women and 44 men now take that mantle.

As such, The Sultan may declare Pwani si Kenia and proceed to get a few billions from Kenia's public coffers to invest in "real" wealth projects, as he deems fit.

In that regard, "the problem" you allude to is seeing heated debate, not within national forums as you might want it to but at county level where such debates should actually take place.

In any case, what you deem "real" wealth creation in Nairobbery is quite different from what His Excellency Anyang Nyong deems to be so for his County.

Your assumption is that the 300b will always be there, right? The issue is, how was this 300b 'wealth' created and is what the counties are doing helping generate more wealth to feed the next cycle, or are they just 'cost' centers? In the latter case, you don't need to be an economist to know that the system will collapse sooner than later..and before ugatuzi, that one man could decide to use the '300b' to repay whatever national debt is due - hence ensuring macroeconomic stability. Right now he has to part with the 300b then go figure how to repay whatevr debt.
muganda
#35 Posted : Thursday, November 23, 2017 5:56:56 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,905
Liv wrote:



Really? That's too insensitive to business now.

I don't understand why we need a holiday during the swearing in of the president.


True @Liv, is this just Kenyan or African behaviour?>?
The problem is they give opposition time for more antics when we could all be working Sad
Fyatu
#36 Posted : Thursday, November 23, 2017 7:05:53 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,820
Location: Nakuru
freiks wrote:
FRM2011 wrote:

The campaign period is over as @gathige put it. Those who support Jubilee, your work was done on 26th Oct. The only patriotic duty you have now is to hold the government accountable. Not to defend it.

I put some actual figures up there. In 4.5 years, Jubilee has borrowed more than what the previous three presidents borrowed in 49 years.

Can we see value ? This is a question each of us can answer for themselves. It is okay to wear political goggles to read the answer.

But lets drop some arguments on this forum. GDP doesn't pay debts. Revenue does. We are approaching 40% debt service to revenue ratio. Is it sustainable ? To spend 2/- out of every 5/- to pay debts. That's not for me to say.

The previous 3 administrations did some amazing infrastructure development. I have started looking at Moi era with some respect.

Think the 7-folks hydro dams, Mombasa port, Nyali bridge, Makupa causeway, Mombasa-Nairobi-Malaba highway, Thika road done twice, all the airports, MTRH, Moi university built from scratch, Maseno, JKUAT, Nyayo wards, PGH and level 5 hospitals all over.

We have irrigation projects across the country. From Ahero to Mwea to Bura e.t.c. The list can go on and on.

If you love Uhuru, then let him know the clock has started ticking to secure his legacy. And it looks like "mission impossible".


Thats true, when i checked SGR was done during Nyayo era, Outering road dualing during mzee kenyatta era in 1974, Isiolo airport by kevake, modernization of JKIA to attain accredition from USA by Moi regime yes and excessive borrowing by Uhuruto kubaffs, ooh i didnt remember that huduma centres were established by the former PM too


I also thought that Lamu port berth 1...2...and wait for it berth 3 done from scratch was done by ojinga as head prefect of grand corruption government(consisting of 50 ministers and 110 assistant ministers in the name of inclusion).I advice wazuans to shop for a cement company to invest in instead of hating Uhuru ..progress can be seen here...

LINK
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
Wakanyugi
#37 Posted : Friday, November 24, 2017 1:09:41 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/3/2007
Posts: 1,634
limanika wrote:
We have a problem nobody wants to talk about. Of the 300b given to counties every year, what percentage of this generates 'real' wealth to feed back to the center?


All our county units, save perhaps for Nairobi and Mombasa, are cost centers. This is why you hear all this noise about pesa mashinani, an issue exploited by visionless politicians of course. They want money without having to earn it, I suppose the national government has a bottomless money well hidden somewhere.

The true benefits of devolution will come when counties start competing to generate wealth and become net contributors to the national kitty. This will take time though, unless Treasury starts cracking the whip.
"The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth." (Niels Bohr)
limanika
#38 Posted : Friday, November 24, 2017 5:14:10 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/21/2011
Posts: 2,032
Wakanyugi wrote:
limanika wrote:
We have a problem nobody wants to talk about. Of the 300b given to counties every year, what percentage of this generates 'real' wealth to feed back to the center?


All our county units, save perhaps for Nairobi and Mombasa, are cost centers. This is why you hear all this noise about pesa mashinani, an issue exploited by visionless politicians of course. They want money without having to earn it, I suppose the national government has a bottomless money well hidden somewhere.

The true benefits of devolution will come when counties start competing to generate wealth and become net contributors to the national kitty. This will take time though, unless Treasury starts cracking the whip.

Yes it would appear national govt grows money on trees. Otherwise how do you issue 300b cheque every year no questions asked if the money is well utilised. If I were Uhuru I would come up with a way of putting pressure on governors to show results and subject them to court of public opinion at the very least. Right now its the governors pressurizing govt to increase funding with govt pleading with governors to spare it! I would turn this around!
Lolest!
#39 Posted : Friday, November 24, 2017 5:29:17 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/18/2011
Posts: 12,069
Location: Kianjokoma
limanika wrote:
Wakanyugi wrote:
limanika wrote:
We have a problem nobody wants to talk about. Of the 300b given to counties every year, what percentage of this generates 'real' wealth to feed back to the center?


All our county units, save perhaps for Nairobi and Mombasa, are cost centers. This is why you hear all this noise about pesa mashinani, an issue exploited by visionless politicians of course. They want money without having to earn it, I suppose the national government has a bottomless money well hidden somewhere.

The true benefits of devolution will come when counties start competing to generate wealth and become net contributors to the national kitty. This will take time though, unless Treasury starts cracking the whip.

Yes it would appear national govt grows money on trees. Otherwise how do you issue 300b cheque every year no questions asked if the money is well utilised. If I were Uhuru I would come up with a way of putting pressure on governors to show results and subject them to court of public opinion at the very least. Right now its the governors pressurizing govt to increase funding with govt pleading with governors to spare it! I would turn this around!

He who seeks equity must have clean hands
Laughing out loudly smile Applause d'oh! Sad Drool Liar Shame on you Pray
kiash
#40 Posted : Friday, November 24, 2017 8:14:12 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/27/2010
Posts: 951
Location: Nyumbani
Is there a formula for the distribution of funds to the counties? what i usually hear is population.

Is there anything like how much a county really contributes to the national kitty in form of revenue. Counties should receive revenues according to how much the contribute. Those who contribute the most get the most.

Any info on the sharing formula?
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