True, but sonko will have 1 more term as 047 available while mutuas will have none. A stab by the latter may complicate jps maths

Baba will not give Ruto a headache. Ruto's biggest problem is Gideon. The Kalenjin are amongst the most democratic people as shown by how many MPs never come back for a second term. Gideon Moi was first humuliated in the Kericho senators by election. Losing is actually a very good thing in politics. It allows you to be insulted and ridiculed which helps someone like Gideon to lose the prince title and actually come back as an underdog.

Very interesting point. Indeed losing can be the best to happen to one and Gideon, Uhuru, Kibaki, Wamalwa are good case studies. But it depends on what you do after the loss.

Somehow Rao has not benefited much from his loses, despite his star rising very high with his base.

Unfortunately his combative brand of politics and the people he attracts to himself tend to repel many voters and makes it easy for opponents to brand him at will. I was shocked to learn that Jubilee built a strategy to defeat him that was based on this one weakness - ego.

Running mate should be from TNA wing of jubilee not necessarily from the mountain.

Another thing to watch out for is who comes in as Finance CS. Kibaki's biggest signal that UK was the chosen one was his appointment as Minister of Finance. It is the one position in Government that gives someone an overview of how Government works.

One move that could shake the current status quo would be an appointment of Gideon Moi to be CS Finance. Ruto anaweza lia machozi. Uhuru is close to Ruto but he is even closer to Mzee Moi so if mzee makes a humble request vitu vinawezachenjanga very fast. Mudavadi and Uhuru are also very close. In a room with Ruto, Uhuru, Gideon and Mudavadi, Ruto is the odd one out.

Gideon has a bargaining chip in that Kanu has supported Jubilee but has not had any position in Government. He can just make a request for only one cabinet position. Moja tu and if that position is Finance he takes it himself.