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Exchange Bar: Results forecast
obiero
#1401 Posted : Monday, October 30, 2017 9:23:06 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,472
Location: nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
heri wrote:
obiero wrote:
The Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q3 2017, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 21.8
EQTY 20.4
COOP 14.4
SCBK 7.7
DTB 7.6
BBK 7.4
I&M 6.6
CFC 3.9
NIC 3.9
HFCK 0.41
NBK 0.31


NIC compared to 2016 means a whopping -24% drop in PBT???. All showing dropped PBT other than KCB as compared to Q3 in 2016. Even DTB shows dropped PBT as compared to 2016.

Even KCB is down


Equity 20.4bn profit will be a hard nut to crack bearing that they have the KQ loan to write off,RVR and Tranny.
Half Year PBT was 13.3bn so them doing 7.1bn in Q3 when we had election manenos.

KCB 21.8bn in Q3.Half Year they did 14.75bn meaning they need to have made 7bn with election manenos.
Heee things are tough for the banking sector

@Obiero is often challenged but seldom wrong, which nut was this being said hard to crack???

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
VituVingiSana
#1402 Posted : Tuesday, October 31, 2017 6:38:37 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,050
Location: Nairobi
Coming up in 1Q 2018 [unless KCB takes the hit in 2017] is the IFRS 9 manenos [Shareholder Funds] ;-)
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
obiero
#1403 Posted : Tuesday, October 31, 2017 6:49:49 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,472
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Coming up in 1Q 2018 [unless KCB takes the hit in 2017] is the IFRS 9 manenos [Shareholder Funds] ;-)

That's why I sit outside of bank stocks for now

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
obiero
#1404 Posted : Wednesday, November 08, 2017 3:47:51 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,472
Location: nairobi
The Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q3 2017, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 21.8 Actual 22.4
EQTY 20.4 Actual 20.7
COOP 14.4 Actual 13.7
SCBK 7.7
DTB 7.6
BBK 7.4
I&M 6.6
CFC 3.9
NIC 3.9
HFCK 0.41
NBK 0.31

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
obiero
#1405 Posted : Monday, November 13, 2017 9:55:46 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,472
Location: nairobi
Kenya Airways

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
obiero
#1406 Posted : Tuesday, November 14, 2017 9:06:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,472
Location: nairobi
obiero wrote:
The Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q3 2017, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 21.8 Actual 22.4
EQTY 20.4 Actual 20.7
COOP 14.4 Actual 13.7
SCBK 7.7 Actual 6.8
DTB 7.6
BBK 7.4
I&M 6.6
CFC 3.9
NIC 3.9
HFCK 0.41
NBK 0.31

Banking as we knew it has changed for the worst in Kenya. Run far away from bank stocks while you still can

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
Angelica _ann
#1407 Posted : Tuesday, November 14, 2017 9:07:38 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,901
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
The Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q3 2017, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 21.8 Actual 22.4
EQTY 20.4 Actual 20.7
COOP 14.4 Actual 13.7
SCBK 7.7 Actual 6.8
DTB 7.6
BBK 7.4
I&M 6.6
CFC 3.9
NIC 3.9
HFCK 0.41
NBK 0.31

Banking as we knew it has changed for the worst in Kenya


Abnormal profits tamed kabisa smile
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
obiero
#1408 Posted : Tuesday, November 14, 2017 9:09:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,472
Location: nairobi
Angelica _ann wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
The Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q3 2017, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 21.8 Actual 22.4
EQTY 20.4 Actual 20.7
COOP 14.4 Actual 13.7
SCBK 7.7 Actual 6.9
DTB 7.6
BBK 7.4
I&M 6.6
CFC 3.9
NIC 3.9
HFCK 0.41
NBK 0.31

Banking as we knew it has changed for the worst in Kenya


Abnormal profits tamed kabisa smile

Tell me about it.. Tough times for Kenya. Most small business owners will have to look elsewhere for financial services. The engine of our economy, read MSME is about to knock

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
maka
#1409 Posted : Wednesday, November 15, 2017 10:45:58 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
The Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q3 2017, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 21.8 Actual 22.4
EQTY 20.4 Actual 20.7
COOP 14.4 Actual 13.7
SCBK 7.7 Actual 6.9
DTB 7.6
BBK 7.4
I&M 6.6
CFC 3.9
NIC 3.9
HFCK 0.41
NBK 0.31

Banking as we knew it has changed for the worst in Kenya


Abnormal profits tamed kabisa smile

Tell me about it.. Tough times for Kenya. Most small business owners will have to look elsewhere for financial services. The engine of our economy, read MSME is about to knock



possunt quia posse videntur
lochaz-index
#1410 Posted : Wednesday, November 15, 2017 1:01:26 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
maka wrote:
obiero wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
The Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q3 2017, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 21.8 Actual 22.4
EQTY 20.4 Actual 20.7
COOP 14.4 Actual 13.7
SCBK 7.7 Actual 6.9
DTB 7.6
BBK 7.4
I&M 6.6
CFC 3.9
NIC 3.9
HFCK 0.41
NBK 0.31

Banking as we knew it has changed for the worst in Kenya


Abnormal profits tamed kabisa smile

Tell me about it.. Tough times for Kenya. Most small business owners will have to look elsewhere for financial services. The engine of our economy, read MSME is about to knock




Wow! The jump in NPLs is understandable (Nakumatt et al) but why the mark down on loan loss coverage? Where are the results?
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
snipermnoma
#1411 Posted : Wednesday, November 15, 2017 2:31:45 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
obiero wrote:
The Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q3 2017, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 21.8 Actual 22.4
EQTY 20.4 Actual 20.7
COOP 14.4 Actual 13.7
SCBK 7.7 Actual 6.8
DTB 7.6 Actual 7.5
BBK 7.4
I&M 6.6
CFC 3.9
NIC 3.9
HFCK 0.41
NBK 0.31


For comparison look how Q3 2016,figures in KES B were:
Equity 21.6 Actual 21.5
KCB 21.4 Actual 22.9
COOP 15.1 Actual 15.2
SCBK 11.3 Actual 11.1
BBK 8.9 Actual 8.7
DTB 7.9 Actual 7.8
I&M 7.2 Actual 7.3
CFC 5.2 Actual 4.8
NIC 5.1 Actual 4.7
HFCK 1.4 Actual 1.2
NBK 0.67 Actual 0.74
obiero
#1412 Posted : Wednesday, November 15, 2017 8:55:46 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,472
Location: nairobi
snipermnoma wrote:
obiero wrote:
The Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q3 2017, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 21.8 Actual 22.4
EQTY 20.4 Actual 20.7
COOP 14.4 Actual 13.7
SCBK 7.7 Actual 6.8
DTB 7.6 Actual 7.5
BBK 7.4
I&M 6.6
CFC 3.9
NIC 3.9
HFCK 0.41
NBK 0.31


For comparison look how Q3 2016,figures in KES B were:
Equity 21.6 Actual 21.5
KCB 21.4 Actual 22.9
COOP 15.1 Actual 15.2
SCBK 11.3 Actual 11.1
BBK 8.9 Actual 8.7
DTB 7.9 Actual 7.8
I&M 7.2 Actual 7.3
CFC 5.2 Actual 4.8
NIC 5.1 Actual 4.7
HFCK 1.4 Actual 1.2
NBK 0.67 Actual 0.74

The worst is yet to come..

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
obiero
#1413 Posted : Friday, November 17, 2017 8:05:21 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,472
Location: nairobi
obiero wrote:
Kenya Airways

The results are out.. Operating profit 1.4B, loss after tax 3.8B

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
the deal
#1414 Posted : Friday, November 17, 2017 2:22:23 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
Kenya Airways

The results are out.. Operating profit 1.4B, loss after tax 3.8B

Well results are worse than you estimated...

2H could be terrible

1. Surging oil prices
2. Current political situation
obiero
#1415 Posted : Friday, November 17, 2017 6:13:27 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,472
Location: nairobi
the deal wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
Kenya Airways

The results are out.. Operating profit 1.4B, loss after tax 3.8B

Well results are worse than you estimated...

2H could be terrible

1. Surging oil prices
2. Current political situation

All businesses are affected

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
VituVingiSana
#1416 Posted : Saturday, November 18, 2017 4:08:11 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,050
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
the deal wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
Kenya Airways

The results are out.. Operating profit 1.4B, loss after tax 3.8B

Well results are worse than you estimated...

2H could be terrible

1. Surging oil prices
2. Current political situation

All businesses are affected

Not all businesses have negative equity, make losses or need bailouts.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
obiero
#1417 Posted : Saturday, November 18, 2017 6:51:14 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,472
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
the deal wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
Kenya Airways

The results are out.. Operating profit 1.4B, loss after tax 3.8B

Well results are worse than you estimated...

2H could be terrible

1. Surging oil prices
2. Current political situation

All businesses are affected

Not all businesses have negative equity, make losses or need bailouts.

Like Nakumatt??

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
VituVingiSana
#1418 Posted : Saturday, November 18, 2017 8:17:59 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,050
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
the deal wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
Kenya Airways

The results are out.. Operating profit 1.4B, loss after tax 3.8B

Well results are worse than you estimated...

2H could be terrible

1. Surging oil prices
2. Current political situation

All businesses are affected

Not all businesses have negative equity, make losses or need bailouts.

Like Nakumatt??

Not all businesses have negative equity, make losses or need bailouts. Or get bailouts from Taxpayers.

Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
obiero
#1419 Posted : Sunday, November 19, 2017 10:42:49 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,472
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
the deal wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
Kenya Airways

The results are out.. Operating profit 1.4B, loss after tax 3.8B

Well results are worse than you estimated...

2H could be terrible

1. Surging oil prices
2. Current political situation

All businesses are affected

Not all businesses have negative equity, make losses or need bailouts.

Like Nakumatt??

Not all businesses have negative equity, make losses or need bailouts. Or get bailouts from Taxpayers.


Indeed KQ is privileged in terms of the bailout.. As for negative equity and losses, management knows exactly when the rain started beating us and have taken bold steps to seal all leaks. Meanwhile, 7 out of 17 firms which have released their financial performance statement since September have made a loss, filings with the Nairobi Securities Exchange, where their shares trade, show.
Further, some six companies posted a reduction in net profit, with only four returning growth in profit for shareholders, according to the results for the half-year, nine-month or full-year trading period, depending on individual firms’ reporting cycle.
Firms which remained in loss-making territory include ARM Cement (Sh1.41 billion for six months to June), Uchumi Supermarkets (Sh1.7 billion full-year period to June), Kenya Airways (Sh3.8 billion for six months to September) and Unga Group (Sh32.29 million full-year to June)..

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
winston
#1420 Posted : Wednesday, November 22, 2017 10:18:53 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/14/2010
Posts: 806
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Coming up in 1Q 2018 [unless KCB takes the hit in 2017] is the IFRS 9 manenos [Shareholder Funds] ;-)

That's why I sit outside of bank stocks for now


No question that performance of banking stocks will decline. but two thots. first the impending doom via ifrs9 is a one year impact. who knows its effects might be cancelled out by the lifting or modification of the interest rate cap. Secondly even if they declne and they realiae normal profit...are there many other stocks that can outperform bankng stocks on a risk adjusted basis?

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