@ Hi all,
i have been listening to our so called leaders and experts when they are traversing the countryside busy preaching with glittering faces how the el nino rains will solve most if not all of our problems...i doubt if these guys are using any iota of their brains when they treat us to this hype...to me there is nothing to be happy about. we should not celebrate because of the coming el nino rains...infact we should be very worried indeed at this stage.
the reasons for my observations are five fold...
one,a case study of Nairobi which is extended to the rest of urban centres. with the demand of water at 1,000,000 cubic metres and with the water supplies satisfying only 450,000 cubic metres at their full capacities means that we still have an unsatisfied demand of 550,000.00 cubic metres!!!! this means that since the distribution network and storage have not been expanded to accommodate more flow and water the 550,000 cubic metre unsatisfied demand will still remain irrespective of how much rain we get!!!! it is therefore safe to conclude that the shortage will still be there and the rationing will still continue...the only relief here is that we will be able to get water once may be twice a week as opposed to just once per fortnight which is the case now.
two,as is the usual case heavy rains come with its own disadvantages. Remember the previous el nino in 1998/1999 left in its wake a completely dilapidated infrastructure (read roads),water sources (read Sasumua dam) and flooded farms etc. the sad thing is that most of roads and the Sasumua dam have still not been repaired ten years since they were damaged!!!! on the issue of water resources we don’t know for sure what will happen this time round,but I am hoping that the available water resources (dams) will not break their banks because if they do,the little water that we are receiving now will not be available,and the little that will be available will not be fit for human consumption. At least the government has tried to repair the existing damaged roads and adding a few more.
Three,from the energy sector,the current installed capacity stands at 1200MW with about 75% of this from Hydroelectric Power (HEP) generation and we don’t expect any further expansions on the HEP in the next 5 to 8 years. If the existing HEP dams break their banks,it would mean that their water holding capacity will have been reduced considerably and the power generation will be significantly reduced leading to uncalled for blackouts…Also it is worth noting that when it rains heavily some substations especially the ones on flat terrains do tend to flood and this does affect the performance of the ground mounted power transformers. there has been several reported cases of trees near the power lines loosing their holding to the weakened wet ground during the torrential rains and falling on the transmission lines causing power disruptions.
Fourth,from the health sector,the available facilities are in pathetic condition…the inadequate equipment are old and in most cases have been run down due to lack of maintenance. The pharmacy shelves are just lined with the simple drugs like the painkillers and single spectrum anti-biotics. Essential drugs are no longer available. More so there is inadequate medical personnel to handle the small number of patients visiting these hospitals. now,in the event of el nino,the waterborne diseases and malaria will be on the increase and I highly doubt that the hospitals will be able to cope with the increasing number of in and outpatients as has been the case in the past. This will leave the affected people at the mercy of the private practitioners who are expensive and not all will afford their services. rest assured that several people will perish as they will be unable to get any treatment.
Fifth,the food security. This may not be adversely affected in the highlands regions as the water in these regions is continuously flowing into the lowlands. The problem will be in the lowlands where the flood waters wreck havoc carrying everything on its way. We expect that the farmers in these regions will not harvest anything as the almost ready crops will be swept away by the floods. These floods also do not spare the livestock. We will expect that after the rains some regions will have starving people who will require relief food. All in all close to 5m people might be affected.
The sad thing is that the government is doing very little to avert any possible disaster of an emergency nature. I really wonder what kind of disaster preparedness this is when I hear a government official opening hi/her baggy mouth and advising people to visit their uncles,grandfathers and grand mothers during the el nino rains season so that they will not be around when their houses get carried away by the floods or the landslides. Why not buy tents for the people in risky zones or alternatively build for them temporary shelters once we get close to the first sign of rain???
I really applaud the NGOs who have already taken the initiative and started stocking on the tents,essential drugs (anti-malaria,dysentery,cholera,typhoid etc),foodstuffs as a strategy for any emergency evacuation.
NEVER TALK OF A RHINO IF THERE IS NO TREE NEAREBY - ZULU PROVERB
...besides, the presence of a safe alone does not signify that there is money inside...