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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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winston
#2671 Posted : Tuesday, July 25, 2017 9:12:34 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/14/2010
Posts: 806
Location: Nairobi
two weeks to go...watching this space...
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obiero
#2672 Posted : Wednesday, July 26, 2017 10:08:17 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,219
Location: nairobi
Leo kwani soko haifunguliwi

KQ ABP 4.26
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bartum
#2673 Posted : Wednesday, July 26, 2017 10:21:48 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/11/2010
Posts: 1,011
Location: nairobi
obiero wrote:
Leo kwani soko haifunguliwi

Also wondering, what's the problem
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uchumi
#2674 Posted : Wednesday, July 26, 2017 11:13:25 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/16/2006
Posts: 234
Morning,

I trust you are well.

This is to notify you that NSE is experiencing technical issue which is affecting the Itrader Platform. Will notify you once the issue is resolved.

Regards,

Description: Description: Description: C:\Users\a203255\Downloads\SB-EmailSig-CfCStanbicBank-new\SB-Logo-Medium.png
“I don’t regret the things I’ve done, I regret the things I didn’t do when I had the chance.”
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lochaz-index
#2675 Posted : Wednesday, July 26, 2017 2:01:25 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
sparkly wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Quite a feat the market has managed in the past five months or so. A gain of 890 points on the 2789 low is not to be scoffed at everything considered. Can the bulls breach the 4000 mark? That remains the question for now.

In terms of time however, the bulls are on a short leash on the front. My crude estimate is about 6-9 months at best to mount a full rally to its peak. In short, the faster the market can challenge the 4000 level the better but I doubt whether market will snap out of its bear hold. The default direction is still bearish. Crunch time it is.


We left the bear in the woods aloooong time ago. We are waiting for the second impulse.

I am extremely skeptical of this particular upswing.

This rally has kept on going with nary a retracement from its onset. The expectation is that the bull will explode into a mad rally after the elections. For the movers who got in early enough, the period after the elections is the perfect opportunity to exit.

Two possibilities favour that strategy: the post election period attracts sufficient longs to mask their exit but the market remains largely stagnant until they have cleared their trades or it rallies briefly after the elections to further feed into the bull narrative and ropes in frenzied buyers which again offers a nice exit window. Anyway, that would be my game plan if I was one of the main movers.

Fundamentally, very little incentive exists for buyers in this market, the election offers the perfect foil. Probably TA suggests otherwise but that is my take.


The market is doing a long correction of the 2002-2007 bull. In TA terms a double zigzag(ending around 2500) or triple zigzag correction (ending around 1850). In double zigzag the retrace from 2700 level terminates at slightly below 4000(Wave B of the previous wave). Current impulse should therefore be on the last leg(iv-v).

The elections will offer a shock and awe moment for the unprepared. The tightening of the opinion polls is yet to sink in.

I'm getting rid of my longs and going short. I could be wrong thoughsmile smile smile

My bet would be on the triple zigzag landing in sub 2000 territory. Another vital thing to note is that the rally is not KE specific but rather part of an emerging/frontier market reflation(currencies, stocks etc) hence my timeline. That means any global event - risk off - that does not favour those markets will turn tide pretty quick and in brutal fashion.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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mlennyma
#2676 Posted : Friday, August 25, 2017 11:57:42 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
Updates please...I think we might see the highest market gain ever past 6161pts in the next 3 years and safaricom leads in the game
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, August 25, 2017 11:59 AM | Reason: Not specified
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#2677 Posted : Friday, August 25, 2017 2:49:43 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
mlennyma wrote:
Updates please...I think we might see the highest market gain ever past 6161pts in the next 3 years and safaricom leads in the game


6161 will only print when the issue of credit crunch is addressed,rains resume and the government puts its brakes on too much USD debt.
For now, the only stocks IMHO that look promising fundamentally with the current economic environment are Mpesa and Kengen. These ones i will continue to trade on, taking in any gains i make.
@SufficientlyP
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lochaz-index
#2678 Posted : Friday, August 25, 2017 3:26:43 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Updates please...I think we might see the highest market gain ever past 6161pts in the next 3 years and safaricom leads in the game


6161 will only print when the issue of credit crunch is addressed,rains resume and the government puts its brakes on too much USD debt.
For now, the only stocks IMHO that look promising fundamentally with the current economic environment are Mpesa and Kengen. These ones i will continue to trade on, taking in any gains i make.

Agreed. Fundies are in the dumpsters and continue to deteriorate by the day. Take profits whenever you can coz it won't be pretty on the way down. Challenging 6161 needs a solid foundation which is lacking currently in Q3 or in the near term (Q4 and most if not all of 2018).
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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bartum
#2679 Posted : Friday, August 25, 2017 6:58:53 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/11/2010
Posts: 1,011
Location: nairobi
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Updates please...I think we might see the highest market gain ever past 6161pts in the next 3 years and safaricom leads in the game


6161 will only print when the issue of credit crunch is addressed,rains resume and the government puts its brakes on too much USD debt.
For now, the only stocks IMHO that look promising fundamentally with the current economic environment are Mpesa and Kengen. These ones i will continue to trade on, taking in any gains i make.

soon many tweets from kengen nowadays, I don't know why seems feel good factor from kengen going forward good fortune
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lochaz-index
#2680 Posted : Friday, September 01, 2017 12:34:39 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
This rally was just too good to be true on so many levels. Currently being tested post haste akin to the rate cap shock wave. If indeed this was a bulltrap like I suspected, the slide South won't be gentle...buckle up, portfolios will hemorrhage badly.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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