Slightly more than a month to go...

Should Uhuruto win, we assume the winners are the duo and the losers are Railonzo duo and the 3 promisees. The converse is true if Railonzo were to win

BUT

I doubt you can limit it to these guys on top and their dozens of hangarounds like our very own FRM2011. Or even the tenderprenuers.

Come September, after the dust has died down(God willing), somebody's political fortunes will have been made out of the losses suffered by someone else.

If Uhuruto loses, I expect Uhuru to retire from active politics. WSR will be weakened but could still come back, he's a fighter.

I imagine Kabogo is working with this in mind. He has come out strongly to say he will not support RUto's bid in 2022. To say this now, and jeopardise Uhuru's win means he has gambled with a Jubilee loss.

This guy has always wanted something big. He was campaigning to be Ruto's running mate in 2022 on grounds that he's no pushover and will protect his region. Now that prospects of being reelected are near zero, plan B is to plan for a Jubilee loss and in fact, support it albeit indirectly.

Because if Uhuruto loses, there'll be an immediate power vacuum in Central Kenya. Positioning will matter with Kiunjuri, Kabogo, Munya, Kindiki and maybe Kiraitu or even Karua wanting to succeed UMK. This power must be consolidated soonest!

Kabogo has the financial muscle. He is currently the chair of the caucus of independents. I believe when alone in the booth, he will vote for Raila to ensure he gets power now!

Kalenjin Nation will be trickier in event of a Jubilee loss. This could propel Isaac higher or totally fail and lead to Isaac being seen as a sellout with a small post in govt.

On the flipside, should NASA lose, there is likely to be renewed calls for Raila to retire. It will be hard for RAO to argue that he has been beaten unfairly with all the changes made to please him. Last time he lost but figures were massaged to allow Uhuruto to reach the over 50% threshold. Raila did not win and he knows that.

I expect Kidero to try again. He tried it last time after the polls with pockets of support in South Nyanza. But if Raila decides to vie again(likely), Evans will have to say "Ndio Baba"

In Kalonzo's kingdom, a loss by NASA would help Alfie most. He will most likely have scooped a few seats especially in Jubilee areas and will be selling himself not as an Ukambani leader but as a national leader!

Western...huku sijui nisemeje. There is no king and the 2 guys are mere vassals. ODM might whitewash their candidates for local seats leading them to have famished parties and less voice at the negotiating table(seats come with party money too as baba warned voters!)

Tricky times, not everyone who dons your party colours really wants you to win

It will be a shocker if small buffalo were to win. The best for him now is to lose with a small margin and claim he lost because he's an independent

I have 1000 bob to bet on Kabogo winning. I shall send it to Newfarer on Friday next week. My winnings to be sent to Wazua foundation by mpole sana...Minus 200 bob for ego issues.

Put your money hapa.

I can call it already. Someone is going to be 10,000/- richer.

@ , first thumbs up for the tone in your post. True wazua spirit of critical analysis.

My thoughts on central politics.

Mwangi Kiunjuri has a gift of the gab. Dude is in his own league when he is speaking in Kiuk. But oratory skills can only take you so far. I don't think he is ripe to fill in the power vacuum.

My take is that Muranga will be the county to watch. Irungu Kangata dropped the hint a while back when he insisted that the next community leader must come from Muranga. They hold the second largest vote bloc in Mt.Kenya after Kiambu.

The other factor will be financial muscle. Kabogo and PK immediately come to mind.

Third factor is the death of dominant parties (six-suit). Yesterday, Uhuru had to tell Kirinyaga voters to choose whoever they prefer between Waiguru and Martha. In 2022, I don't see many politicians wasting resources with the party primaries.

Finally, WSR's political career ends with this election. Lets compare notes on 9th Aug.

You need a new crystal ball!

Del

Damn! he survived, on a Jubilee ticket!

Clutching the tea pot, Waluke said "they have stolen all the money", in reference to corruption scandals that have rocked the Jubilee government.