It's almost time for our favorite track and field athletes to carry our flag in London for the world championships. Bad news is that this might be the first time in a major championship that Kenya might not win what has been our preserve for decades, both the 3000m men and women's steeplechase. The men's steplechase will most likely be won by American Evan Jager and the women's version will likely go to the current world record holder and former kenyan now running for Bahrain (i think) Ruth Jeptoo. We might still be able to beat her out as we have a very strong field of Chespol, current world champion Kiyeng and Chepkoech but the men's is a foregone issue, Jager will win it and it won't even be close. The yank is in form and he does not fear the indomitable East Africans at all. This is going to be a disappointing championships because we are not guaranteed any gold other than perharps men's 1500m where i know the good Asbel Kiprop will show up to win. If he does not win then Timothy Cheruiyot or Ronald Kwemoi will win. My money is on Kwemoi, he is enjoying really good form.

1500m women field is toooooo strong. Sifan Hassan will probably beat our queen Faith Kipyegon to the gold. In the field will also will be Dibaba and Laura Muir, all very strong contenders. Not forgetting Jenny Simpson too who can spring up a surprise. Don't count out Winnie Chebet, she is deceptively fast.

800m men and women no hope. Nigel Amos and Semenya are sure bets even though there is a young Kenyan sensation who is based in the States and looks very good. Am forgetting his name. Rudisha might not even make the finals. The other youngster Bett looks like a bronze medal hopeful. After Semenya, there is Niyonsaba of Burundi and Ajay Wilson of the US. Thos are the favorites for the three medals available. Eunice Sum doesn't have it anymore and Wambui looks like she is running out of steam lately.

5000 and 10000m men is obviously going to Mo Farrah. He would have been a sure bet to win everywhere else inthe world anyway but is a lock to obliterate the competition in his country. No way he loses in London. Absolutely no way. So our guys will probably be battling it out with our neighbors Ethiopia for the lesser medals. That's a foregone conclusuion.

Women's 5000m is where we have the best prospect in Hellen Obiri. If Ayana has a bad day, Obiri will surely bring it home. 10000m is Ayana's to lose. That woman is a freak of nature and i can see her winning it with ease.

400m hurdles defending world champion Nicholas Bett is not in good form. He doesnt look like he will repeat his shock gold medal run from two years ago in Beijing. He might not even be on the podium at all.

Julius Yego has also been struggling mightily to even break the 80m mark after throwing over 90m to win gold in the last edition. Then there are two Germans, Rohler and Vetter who are throwing 90m and above almost regularly now. So, that might be the end of a Yego gold prospect. Times are tough.

Marathon doesnt look very good either. Bekele if he will be on the Ethiopian team looks really really strong. Without Sumgong and Mary Keitany, our hopes in the women's marathon don't look that promising either.

So, after all is said and done, depending on which Asbel Kiprop shows up, the good one who can run 3:26 with his eyes closed or the bad one that employs bad tacticts by running from the last spot and then exerting too much energy trying to catch up on the penultimate lap, i think we might come back home without a gold medal for the first time in a major world track and field event. It's not a good time for Kenyan athletics.

Let's hear your predictions. Mine are not very encouraging but they are very very plausible.

Asbel Kiprop is also finished. Kenya's best hope in the mile is "Men are going"

Team tactics are everything in championships unless you have the brilliance of mo Farah na off course ka energizer kidogo.The ethiopians will come with a plan in 5K women with ayana and dibaba in that race obiri will have to be at her best. The script may remain the familiar one,5&10K women goes to Ethiopia,Kenya takes the steeplechase the kawaida blunder by kiprop an upset or surprise in 800 and 1500...

I think we should have boycotted this games to get back at UK, US for snubbing the under 18 championships in Nairobi.

Maybe we should and we have every reason to because of how those countries dissed us. That was matharau but we need to be the bigger person here and go kick ass like we always do. But you are right, maybe we should have boycotted, a track and field championships without Kenya is like the world cup without Brazil. The absence would be immensely felt and the status of the event would be watered down a lot.

But we would also be doing our athletes who train very hard a disservice because a lot of these guys depend on these international championships to build their names and most importantly, to put unga on the tables back home.

Being a third world country is tough, you have to endure all sorts of matharaus but maybe one day we will earn the respect of these nations especially after showing them just how successful the under 18 event in Nairobi was.

Obi 1
There is plenty prize money at the worlds even for runners who make it to the final and finish dead last.

https://www.iaaf.org/new...ease/beijing-2015-money

Also winning a gold medal here raises your appearance fees in the Diamond league and also raises your profile so that you can make more money in commercial endorsements. Just ask Julius Yego what a gold medal did for him.

So you cant ask these runners to cut their nose to spite their face.

Ok, this does make sense, but its not like this guys are paupers, they should also take one for their country

Ob 1

I am fairly sure that most Kenyan runners are not wealthy. The vast majority have only 2-3 years to shine. Once injuries kick in they are finished.

Look at Nicholas Bett. He was basically a one hit wonder. Where is Helah Kiprop now? And from the 2013 championships where is Lydiah Chepkurui?

And more than half of these runners you see in 2017, will not be good enough to qualify in 2019. So they quite literally have one chance.

The peak period for most runners is very short. (usually 2-3 years). Few are lucky enough to be injury free for longer than that. These are the likes of Kemboi, Vivian etc ...........
Most shine bright for 2-3 years then become average runners. Which means no more Diamond league and no more world champs.

Kiprop is a very wily guy. He did that in Monaco to throw his competition off and to make them think he is finished. He knows he cant win the diamond league because he doesnt participate regurlaly so he was racing just to see where his fitness level is. I watched that race and realized that he was not interested in winning. I actually think that Kiprop winning gold is almost guaranteed. Maybe i am putting too much stock on him but i know that on a good day, this guy is unbeatable. He is head and shoulders above everybody else. But we shall see. Wacha twende kazi London.