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Market Direction with Election
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winmak
#11 Posted : Saturday, July 29, 2017 7:14:20 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 12/1/2007
Posts: 539
Location: Nakuru
sparkly wrote:
Trafalgar78 wrote:
What happens after August 8? Do I collect my profits for the next 1 week and then buy after the election? My average returns since January are 45%. Was thinking its time to get out but what do other investors think.

Thanks.


These are the potential outcomes after the election:
1. Elections are peaceful. Jubilee wins per the oponion polls - Market has factored in this possibility hence the sharp rise this year. No major change expected in market.
2. NASA wins elections are peacefull - Uncertainty on new government policies towards investments leading to a fall in market.
3. Either side wins, elections are violent - Market collapses.

In conclusion 1/3 the market doesn't change, 2/3 the market falls. You are better off taking your 45% profits.


Is NASA really that business unfriendly?
For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases ~ WB
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mlennyma
#12 Posted : Saturday, July 29, 2017 7:33:23 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
winmak wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Trafalgar78 wrote:
What happens after August 8? Do I collect my profits for the next 1 week and then buy after the election? My average returns since January are 45%. Was thinking its time to get out but what do other investors think.

Thanks.


These are the potential outcomes after the election:
1. Elections are peaceful. Jubilee wins per the oponion polls - Market has factored in this possibility hence the sharp rise this year. No major change expected in market.
2. NASA wins elections are peacefull - Uncertainty on new government policies towards investments leading to a fall in market.
3. Either side wins, elections are violent - Market collapses.

In conclusion 1/3 the market doesn't change, 2/3 the market falls. You are better off taking your 45% profits.


Is NASA really that business unfriendly?

not really but a new regime comes with wait and see altitude. .NASA has some agendas which are emotive like tjrc and hidden referendum calls which might see politics extended to 5years,NASA is
also not solid in decision making like jubilee would be due to many competing interests
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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  | | Edit by user: Saturday, July 29, 2017 7:39 AM | Reason: Not specified
Horton
#13 Posted : Saturday, July 29, 2017 7:41:27 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
There will definitely be a rise in the market following peaceful elections. I have been told that there is lots of money waiting on the sidelines
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Mukiri
#14 Posted : Saturday, July 29, 2017 10:31:08 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
Horton wrote:
There will definitely be a rise in the market following peaceful elections. I have been told that there is lots of money waiting on the sidelines

Now I'm even more greedy(ier)Pray

Proverbs 19:21
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Mukiri
#15 Posted : Saturday, July 29, 2017 10:40:28 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
sparkly wrote:
Trafalgar78 wrote:
What happens after August 8? Do I collect my profits for the next 1 week and then buy after the election? My average returns since January are 45%. Was thinking its time to get out but what do other investors think.

Thanks.


These are the potential outcomes after the election:
1. Elections are peaceful. Jubilee wins per the oponion polls - Market has factored in this possibility hence the sharp rise this year. No major change expected in market.
2. NASA wins elections are peacefull - Uncertainty on new government policies towards investments leading to a fall in market.
3. Either side wins, elections are violent - Market collapses.

In conclusion 1/3 the market doesn't change, 2/3 the market falls. You are better off taking your 45% profits.

I know you are just looking for a dip to get inLaughing out loudly

Violence that happened last was in Rift Valley, the hustler's backyard and escalated from there. Hustler is in bed with the majority Kikuyus and also in government. Nothing expected there, whomever wins. Violence, if any will happen in the lakeside and/or Kibra... inconsequential to the business community, if you ask me.

Fear mongering might be a business tactic to keep current prices favourable, for a good harvest. Else market would have factored in the opposite... and it does have its sources

Proverbs 19:21
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obiero
#16 Posted : Saturday, July 29, 2017 2:16:40 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,217
Location: nairobi
Fear mongering ikome..It will end well

KQ ABP 4.26
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sparkly
#17 Posted : Saturday, July 29, 2017 3:19:15 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
mlennyma wrote:
winmak wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Trafalgar78 wrote:
What happens after August 8? Do I collect my profits for the next 1 week and then buy after the election? My average returns since January are 45%. Was thinking its time to get out but what do other investors think.

Thanks.


These are the potential outcomes after the election:
1. Elections are peaceful. Jubilee wins per the oponion polls - Market has factored in this possibility hence the sharp rise this year. No major change expected in market.
2. NASA wins elections are peacefull - Uncertainty on new government policies towards investments leading to a fall in market.
3. Either side wins, elections are violent - Market collapses.

In conclusion 1/3 the market doesn't change, 2/3 the market falls. You are better off taking your 45% profits.


Is NASA really that business unfriendly?

not really but a new regime comes with wait and see altitude. .NASA has some agendas which are emotive like tjrc and hidden referendum calls which might see politics extended to 5years,NASA is
also not solid in decision making like jubilee would be due to many competing interests


Ahsante @mlennyma yes, keyword is uncertainty and markets hate uncertainty. It's an open secret that NASA leans the socialist way and business men will wait and see if policies like rent controls will be effected.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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sparkly
#18 Posted : Saturday, July 29, 2017 3:22:36 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Horton wrote:
There will definitely be a rise in the market following peaceful elections. I have been told that there is lots of money waiting on the sidelines


Who told you? We also want to be toldsmile
Life is short. Live passionately.
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  | | Edit by user: Saturday, July 29, 2017 3:23 PM | Reason: Not specified
sparkly
#19 Posted : Saturday, July 29, 2017 3:39:07 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
obiero wrote:
Fear mongering ikome..It will end well


Violence has been a constant feature of our elections. 3/4 of the last elections have been violent. Even this election has had instances of localized violence in Garissa, Guthurai, Bomet, Homabay, Migori, Kisii, Machakos, Nairobi among other places.

Nationalized violence is a real probability.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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bartum
#20 Posted : Saturday, July 29, 2017 4:02:41 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/11/2010
Posts: 1,011
Location: nairobi
sparkly wrote:
Horton wrote:
There will definitely be a rise in the market following peaceful elections. I have been told that there is lots of money waiting on the sidelines


Who told you? We also want to be toldsmile

Mine too on sidelines
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