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To average or not to average?
guru267
#11 Posted : Friday, May 21, 2010 8:23:20 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Wondergirl wrote:
Thanks guys for bring up this issue.I was just about to ask the same about my holding on Kenya re whose average price is 14.50. I was thinking of adding a few shares so that I get to dispose them. Will that be a case of throwing good money after bad? Averaging has waorked for me befor. Just that I'm not very confident with Kenya re any more, I really want too get rid of it. Help out a sister here, do'nt beat her up......


@wondergirl be very careful with kenya re and i wouldnt advise averaging down... the price has been falling drastically even when it is trading cum div with a fair dividend and this is clear evidence the market is losing faith in it....

i was a very big bull on this counter before the results but now i am the biggest bear because i dont see how they can improve profitability with the rate of climb in claims... and would advise selling before one gets caught in the trap called EX DIV

clear evidence can be seen with the price reaction of CFC and Kenya re after the release...



Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
The Real Shaft
#12 Posted : Friday, May 21, 2010 8:36:18 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/19/2008
Posts: 839
but say...

you bought 1,000 shares of Safcom at 5/-.......

= 5,000/-

and then bought 1,000 more shares at Kshs. 3.50...

= Kshs. 3,500.00....

totaling 2,000 shares at Kshs. 8,500.00....

meaning the value of 1 shares ....

= Kshs. 4.25...

if you then sold all 2,000 shares at Kshs. 4.50

you would receive....

Kshs. 9,000.00

meaning your capital gains = 500/-...

d'oh!

Q.E.D
I'm the real Massey Fergu...... Shut your mouth....
guru267
#13 Posted : Friday, May 21, 2010 8:40:18 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@the real shaft we know all about averaging down the argument is averaging down on a stock that continues falling afterwards...

IMHO before buying a counter one should know at exactly what loss he will begin to average down and exactly the amount...

eg i never average down until i've made a 35%+ loss on an investment
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
The Real Shaft
#14 Posted : Friday, May 21, 2010 8:47:30 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/19/2008
Posts: 839

it depends on the doctor's prescription....

i developed a principal....

and stuck to it.....

blind and spontaneous buying...

may not assist in the long run....


if we take Eveready for instance...

we know....

they went public to limit....

their losses on investment...

should the inevitable departure come sooner....

it would not be stock to experiment....

however...

safcom....

equity...

msc.....

juicy prospects.....
I'm the real Massey Fergu...... Shut your mouth....
Wondergirl
#15 Posted : Friday, May 21, 2010 8:52:51 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/12/2009
Posts: 312
Thanks guys for your sentiments,
Truly said. @ Real Shaft I do know about averaging down, it has really worked for me before with Kenya Air, Safcom and I'm just about to take my profits with BBk after really averaging down. My beef is that it looks like Kenya re is a dyng horse!!! Should I hold it at 14.50 and be content with the ka-divided, should I sell before it becomes ex-divinded and make a loss of more than 20k or should I buy a few at lets sat 12.00 and then pray that it moves up a bit and just do with getting back my investment???
the deal
#16 Posted : Friday, May 21, 2010 9:02:56 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
i took my losses on kenya re and never looked back...y would i average a leaking boat...sorry paka has no future...
The Real Shaft
#17 Posted : Friday, May 21, 2010 9:05:25 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/19/2008
Posts: 839
pole my bad...

misread your enquiry....

Kenya Re...

before we look at the individual stock..

let us examine the market of re-insurance....

with Zep-Re...

East African Re-insurance....

and the grander insurance business...

there is nothing but hope .....

Kenya-Re..

is re-structuring...

human resource-wise.....

meaning the tide of bad-decisions..

may be reaching the twilight....

further..

in the sector...

who else would be of interest...???

in may humble estimates...

Kenya-Re..

is close to KCB....

will not increase value astronomically like KQ...

but sound enough not to plummet....

if you are really into that stock...

a small shiver...

will not worry you....

if you have 1,000 shares at 14/50 = 14,500/-...

buy 1,000 shares at 13/50 = 13,500/-

then but 5,000 shares at 6/- = 30,000/-

totaling 7,000 shares at 58,000/-

meaning 1 share = 8/30....

if the stock reaches 10/-....

you will be smiling....
I'm the real Massey Fergu...... Shut your mouth....
The Real Shaft
#18 Posted : Friday, May 21, 2010 9:08:36 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/19/2008
Posts: 839
and the one philosophy...

should be...

never willing make a loss...

try to mitigate .....

and in that way...

the domino effect is allowed to spur into life...

if there are 200 investors with similar thought...

and you all bought on average 100,000 shares...

there shall be a minimal deficit in supply...

meaning..

a shift upwards..

my two and a half cents...
I'm the real Massey Fergu...... Shut your mouth....
Wondergirl
#19 Posted : Friday, May 21, 2010 9:17:06 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/12/2009
Posts: 312
Ahsante @ Real,sounds like you have mirrored what I wanted to here.@ Real
By the way had you taken a sabatical? Haven't seen you here for a while... someone missed you.
KulaRaha
#20 Posted : Friday, May 21, 2010 9:18:06 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
Its not a bad idea to average down on a stock with good fundamentals...like EABL, etc.

Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
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