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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Member Joined: 7/1/2014 Posts: 895 Location: sky
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Metasploit wrote:And NSE will surely touch 3500 as Ken gen and the rest are taking a breather The Nairobi NSE20 Index +0.45% to close at a Fresh 11 month high of 3522.79. with little signs of pullback, 53 days to election There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/11/2010 Posts: 1,011 Location: nairobi
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What did Aly Khan satchu meant here
"The Nairobi NSE20 Index +0.45% to close at a Fresh 11 month high of 3522.79.
We are seeing better breadth in the market but one suspects the
rebound is now maturing especially ahead of the August elections and
heightened and adversarial politics"
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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littledove wrote:Metasploit wrote:And NSE will surely touch 3500 as Ken gen and the rest are taking a breather The Nairobi NSE20 Index +0.45% to close at a Fresh 11 month high of 3522.79. with little signs of pullback, 53 days to election It has been staggering for the last two weeks or so. Only added about 100 points in that period...nothing like the initial full steam charge. This is the pause before a definitive move up or down. Still favouring the bears to finish the job. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,054 Location: Nairobi
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bartum wrote:What did Aly Khan satchu meant here
"The Nairobi NSE20 Index +0.45% to close at a Fresh 11 month high of 3522.79.
We are seeing better breadth in the market but one suspects the
rebound is now maturing especially ahead of the August elections and
heightened and adversarial politics"  Tower of Babel ;-) Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,568
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lochaz-index wrote:littledove wrote:Metasploit wrote:And NSE will surely touch 3500 as Ken gen and the rest are taking a breather The Nairobi NSE20 Index +0.45% to close at a Fresh 11 month high of 3522.79. with little signs of pullback, 53 days to election It has been staggering for the last two weeks or so. Only added about 100 points in that period...nothing like the initial full steam charge. This is the pause before a definitive move up or down. Still favouring the bears to finish the job. It was beginning to look parabolic. Next two weeks are crucial to full charge the bulls. The pull-back from this point takes us down 1,000 points to 2500 levels. A tightening of the opinion polls will scare the bulls sufficiently 
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Quite a feat the market has managed in the past five months or so. A gain of 890 points on the 2789 low is not to be scoffed at everything considered. Can the bulls breach the 4000 mark? That remains the question for now. In terms of time however, the bulls are on a short leash on the front. My crude estimate is about 6-9 months at best to mount a full rally to its peak. In short, the faster the market can challenge the 4000 level the better but I doubt whether market will snap out of its bear hold. The default direction is still bearish. Crunch time it is. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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lochaz-index wrote:Quite a feat the market has managed in the past five months or so. A gain of 890 points on the 2789 low is not to be scoffed at everything considered. Can the bulls breach the 4000 mark? That remains the question for now.
In terms of time however, the bulls are on a short leash on the front. My crude estimate is about 6-9 months at best to mount a full rally to its peak. In short, the faster the market can challenge the 4000 level the better but I doubt whether market will snap out of its bear hold. The default direction is still bearish. Crunch time it is. 6 9 months from when to when?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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lochaz-index wrote:Quite a feat the market has managed in the past five months or so. A gain of 890 points on the 2789 low is not to be scoffed at everything considered. Can the bulls breach the 4000 mark? That remains the question for now.
In terms of time however, the bulls are on a short leash on the front. My crude estimate is about 6-9 months at best to mount a full rally to its peak. In short, the faster the market can challenge the 4000 level the better but I doubt whether market will snap out of its bear hold. The default direction is still bearish. Crunch time it is. We left the bear in the woods aloooong time ago. We are waiting for the second impulse. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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sparkly wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Quite a feat the market has managed in the past five months or so. A gain of 890 points on the 2789 low is not to be scoffed at everything considered. Can the bulls breach the 4000 mark? That remains the question for now.
In terms of time however, the bulls are on a short leash on the front. My crude estimate is about 6-9 months at best to mount a full rally to its peak. In short, the faster the market can challenge the 4000 level the better but I doubt whether market will snap out of its bear hold. The default direction is still bearish. Crunch time it is. We left the bear in the woods aloooong time ago. We are waiting for the second impulse. I am extremely skeptical of this particular upswing. This rally has kept on going with nary a retracement from its onset. The expectation is that the bull will explode into a mad rally after the elections. For the movers who got in early enough, the period after the elections is the perfect opportunity to exit. Two possibilities favour that strategy: the post election period attracts sufficient longs to mask their exit but the market remains largely stagnant until they have cleared their trades or it rallies briefly after the elections to further feed into the bull narrative and ropes in frenzied buyers which again offers a nice exit window. Anyway, that would be my game plan if I was one of the main movers. Fundamentally, very little incentive exists for buyers in this market, the election offers the perfect foil. Probably TA suggests otherwise but that is my take. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,568
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lochaz-index wrote:sparkly wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Quite a feat the market has managed in the past five months or so. A gain of 890 points on the 2789 low is not to be scoffed at everything considered. Can the bulls breach the 4000 mark? That remains the question for now.
In terms of time however, the bulls are on a short leash on the front. My crude estimate is about 6-9 months at best to mount a full rally to its peak. In short, the faster the market can challenge the 4000 level the better but I doubt whether market will snap out of its bear hold. The default direction is still bearish. Crunch time it is. We left the bear in the woods aloooong time ago. We are waiting for the second impulse. I am extremely skeptical of this particular upswing. This rally has kept on going with nary a retracement from its onset. The expectation is that the bull will explode into a mad rally after the elections. For the movers who got in early enough, the period after the elections is the perfect opportunity to exit. Two possibilities favour that strategy: the post election period attracts sufficient longs to mask their exit but the market remains largely stagnant until they have cleared their trades or it rallies briefly after the elections to further feed into the bull narrative and ropes in frenzied buyers which again offers a nice exit window. Anyway, that would be my game plan if I was one of the main movers. Fundamentally, very little incentive exists for buyers in this market, the election offers the perfect foil. Probably TA suggests otherwise but that is my take. The market is doing a long correction of the 2002-2007 bull. In TA terms a double zigzag(ending around 2500) or triple zigzag correction (ending around 1850). In double zigzag the retrace from 2700 level terminates at slightly below 4000(Wave B of the previous wave). Current impulse should therefore be on the last leg(iv-v). The elections will offer a shock and awe moment for the unprepared. The tightening of the opinion polls is yet to sink in. I'm getting rid of my longs and going short. I could be wrong though
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/14/2010 Posts: 806 Location: Nairobi
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two weeks to go...watching this space...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,475 Location: nairobi
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Leo kwani soko haifunguliwi
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/11/2010 Posts: 1,011 Location: nairobi
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obiero wrote:Leo kwani soko haifunguliwi Also wondering, what's the problem
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/16/2006 Posts: 228
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Morning, I trust you are well. This is to notify you that NSE is experiencing technical issue which is affecting the Itrader Platform. Will notify you once the issue is resolved. Regards, Description: Description: Description: C:\Users\a203255\Downloads\SB-EmailSig-CfCStanbicBank-new\SB-Logo-Medium.png “I don’t regret the things I’ve done, I regret the things I didn’t do when I had the chance.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:sparkly wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Quite a feat the market has managed in the past five months or so. A gain of 890 points on the 2789 low is not to be scoffed at everything considered. Can the bulls breach the 4000 mark? That remains the question for now.
In terms of time however, the bulls are on a short leash on the front. My crude estimate is about 6-9 months at best to mount a full rally to its peak. In short, the faster the market can challenge the 4000 level the better but I doubt whether market will snap out of its bear hold. The default direction is still bearish. Crunch time it is. We left the bear in the woods aloooong time ago. We are waiting for the second impulse. I am extremely skeptical of this particular upswing. This rally has kept on going with nary a retracement from its onset. The expectation is that the bull will explode into a mad rally after the elections. For the movers who got in early enough, the period after the elections is the perfect opportunity to exit. Two possibilities favour that strategy: the post election period attracts sufficient longs to mask their exit but the market remains largely stagnant until they have cleared their trades or it rallies briefly after the elections to further feed into the bull narrative and ropes in frenzied buyers which again offers a nice exit window. Anyway, that would be my game plan if I was one of the main movers. Fundamentally, very little incentive exists for buyers in this market, the election offers the perfect foil. Probably TA suggests otherwise but that is my take. The market is doing a long correction of the 2002-2007 bull. In TA terms a double zigzag(ending around 2500) or triple zigzag correction (ending around 1850). In double zigzag the retrace from 2700 level terminates at slightly below 4000(Wave B of the previous wave). Current impulse should therefore be on the last leg(iv-v). The elections will offer a shock and awe moment for the unprepared. The tightening of the opinion polls is yet to sink in. I'm getting rid of my longs and going short. I could be wrong though My bet would be on the triple zigzag landing in sub 2000 territory. Another vital thing to note is that the rally is not KE specific but rather part of an emerging/frontier market reflation(currencies, stocks etc) hence my timeline. That means any global event - risk off - that does not favour those markets will turn tide pretty quick and in brutal fashion. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,175 Location: nairobi
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Updates please...I think we might see the highest market gain ever past 6161pts in the next 3 years and safaricom leads in the game "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,218 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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mlennyma wrote:Updates please...I think we might see the highest market gain ever past 6161pts in the next 3 years and safaricom leads in the game 6161 will only print when the issue of credit crunch is addressed,rains resume and the government puts its brakes on too much USD debt. For now, the only stocks IMHO that look promising fundamentally with the current economic environment are Mpesa and Kengen. These ones i will continue to trade on, taking in any gains i make. @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:mlennyma wrote:Updates please...I think we might see the highest market gain ever past 6161pts in the next 3 years and safaricom leads in the game 6161 will only print when the issue of credit crunch is addressed,rains resume and the government puts its brakes on too much USD debt. For now, the only stocks IMHO that look promising fundamentally with the current economic environment are Mpesa and Kengen. These ones i will continue to trade on, taking in any gains i make. Agreed. Fundies are in the dumpsters and continue to deteriorate by the day. Take profits whenever you can coz it won't be pretty on the way down. Challenging 6161 needs a solid foundation which is lacking currently in Q3 or in the near term (Q4 and most if not all of 2018). The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/11/2010 Posts: 1,011 Location: nairobi
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:mlennyma wrote:Updates please...I think we might see the highest market gain ever past 6161pts in the next 3 years and safaricom leads in the game 6161 will only print when the issue of credit crunch is addressed,rains resume and the government puts its brakes on too much USD debt. For now, the only stocks IMHO that look promising fundamentally with the current economic environment are Mpesa and Kengen. These ones i will continue to trade on, taking in any gains i make. soon many tweets from kengen nowadays, I don't know why seems feel good factor from kengen going forward good fortune
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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This rally was just too good to be true on so many levels. Currently being tested post haste akin to the rate cap shock wave. If indeed this was a bulltrap like I suspected, the slide South won't be gentle...buckle up, portfolios will hemorrhage badly. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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