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Uhuru versus Raila 2017
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/23/2008 Posts: 3,017
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Today's standard has the most accurate analysis using the registered voters. Its a dead heat people, Uhuruto will be sweating for the next 40 days as they have the most to lose. "The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,906
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Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:Today's standard has the most accurate analysis using the registered voters.
Its a dead heat people, Uhuruto will be sweating for the next 40 days as they have the most to lose. @Obi nowadays i dont bother with these bonychestthumpers wait and see In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Elder Joined: 8/16/2011 Posts: 2,273
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Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:Today's standard has the most accurate analysis using the registered voters.
Its a dead heat people, Uhuruto will be sweating for the next 40 days as they have the most to lose. Ati the standard? Their stock do not have even a single thread on Wazua leave alone making a poll analysis for others. Uhuru has just started his campaign, the last stretch will favor him as everyone read the lies in Nasa and its in-effective type /mode of Leadership. Hope you will bring this analysis 20 days from Today when most people will have made decision. That is their Opnion and mind you standard employees are individuals and not the paper. At the top or bottom you can read the Author.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/10/2008 Posts: 9,131 Location: Kanjo
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The bottom line will be: 1) Who has registered more since 2013 2) Campaign these last 40 days matter 3) Gains/Losses - who has gained/lost areas since 2013. Whats the net effect? 4) Turnout in August. i.am.back!!!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/10/2008 Posts: 9,131 Location: Kanjo
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gmg wrote:very close to @mutahingunyi poll 47%Uhuru 39%Raila 05%Man with Coconut Head 09%Don't Care
Twitter poll is not scientific. that said, this isn't close at all. i.am.back!!!!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/9/2007 Posts: 13,095
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Rank: Elder Joined: 8/16/2011 Posts: 2,273
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Njung'e wrote:Latest IPSOS
UMK - 48% RAO - 43%
Remember where I said Ambitho has been asked to report on progressive polls by Raila to show he is catching up? Now you can believe me. The actual tally will be Uhuru 59.4% and Raila 39%of votes. Reason is that the poll size is too small@2000 and that Kenyan counties are not equally registered.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/18/2011 Posts: 12,069 Location: Kianjokoma
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[quote=washiku]@FRM, come look at these numbers http://www.the-star.co.k...emain-the-same_c1588737[/quote] That analysis assumes Raila gets exactly the same % in western. It should add Musalia's numbers to his
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/18/2011 Posts: 12,069 Location: Kianjokoma
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Nasa seems to be campaigning against Ruto than against entire Jubilee 2022 will be more interesting esp if Jubilee wins
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/5/2010 Posts: 2,459
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[quote=washiku]@FRM, come look at these numbers http://www.the-star.co.k...emain-the-same_c1588737[/quote] We did early in the morning and ignored them. When someone says NASA will get 53% and Jubilee 28% of votes in western, you know you don't even need to bother looking at the data anymore. And the balance goes to Jirongo apparently. For perspective this is how Uhuru fared in western in 2013. Kakamega - 2% Vihiga - 1% Bungoma - 12% Busia - 7% Weighted average - 6% Does anyone believe that Uhuru's support base in Western has grown 4-fold ? Kila mtu ajijazie.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/9/2009 Posts: 6,592 Location: Nairobi
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Lolest! wrote:Nasa seems to be campaigning against Ruto than against entire Jubilee
2022 will be more interesting esp if Jubilee wins Melon will beat WSR in 2022. He has my vote then. BBI will solve it :)
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/17/2009 Posts: 2,038 Location: GA
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As much as crowds do not translate to votes the enthusiasm displayed in kitui Jubilee's rally yesterday looked liked it was somewhere in muranga.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/3/2008 Posts: 4,057 Location: Gwitu
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It's still possible to have a run off if the winning candidate gets over 50% but fails to attain 25% in 24 counties. Has anyone analysed the counties? Truth forever on the scaffold Wrong forever on the throne (James Russell Rowell)
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/5/2010 Posts: 2,459
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madollar wrote:As much as crowds do not translate to votes the enthusiasm displayed in kitui Jubilee's rally yesterday looked liked it was somewhere in muranga. I vowed to stop uploading photos. But there is one of chiefs and their assistants collecting t-shirts in mwingi for their people. In Embu, you don't want to see the actual photos of the president's rally. Had a crowd of less than 2000. But we know they will still vote Jubilee 90%.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/5/2010 Posts: 2,459
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kaka2za wrote:It's still possible to have a run off if the winning candidate gets over 50% but fails to attain 25% in 24 counties. Has anyone analysed the counties? Both candidates will safely meet that threshold. Rao commands 27 counties with support bases between 50-99%. Uhuru has 20 under his belt. And even where he loses, he will get 25%. Think Mombasa, Narok and NEP counties.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/25/2011 Posts: 2,103 Location: Nrb
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FRM2011 wrote:madollar wrote:As much as crowds do not translate to votes the enthusiasm displayed in kitui Jubilee's rally yesterday looked liked it was somewhere in muranga. I vowed to stop uploading photos. But there is one of chiefs and their assistants collecting t-shirts in mwingi for their people. In Embu, you don't want to see the actual photos of the president's rally. Had a crowd of less than 2000. But we know they will still vote Jubilee 90%. We need the enthusiasm! In 2013,UK won by more then 800k votes,but only 8000 pushed him over the silly plus 1 % So this enthusiasm will translate to some votes,haba na haba Rs I am happy
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/5/2010 Posts: 2,459
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Can Jubilee atleast try to be representative kidogo.
Below are the nominations lists as forwarded to IEBC.
Ama like our people say, "gaka ni ka mwene" hii ina wenyewe.
JUBILEE PARTY Beth Mugo (78years) Cecily Mbarire David Sankok, Milcent Omanga Faith Waigwa Jackson Kosgei Veronica Maina.
ODM PARTY Wilson Sossion ,Hon Danita Ghati ,Seth Kakuzie, Hadija Hussein Harold kimuge Kipchumba Beatrice Kwamboka Rebecca Lomoiya(Turkana) Fatima Abdi Masitsa Ndombi
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/7/2007 Posts: 11,935 Location: Nairobi
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FRM2011 wrote:[quote=washiku]@FRM, come look at these numbers
Kakamega - 2% Vihiga - 1% Bungoma - 12% Busia - 7%
Weighted average - 6%
Does anyone believe that Uhuru's support base in Western has grown 4-fold ? Kila mtu ajijazie. It may not have grown 4-fold but i am 100% certain Jubilee will do far much better in the counties of Bungoma and Kakamega, there will be a slight improvement in Busia but Vihiga will stick to NASA. I premise this on the following: 1. In Bungoma, support for either party is split in the middle and this has been brought about by the fact that, Wangamati,Khangati and Weta come from Sirisia, while Lusaka is from Webuye. There is, therefore quite some support for Jubilee in Webuye and Kimilili (cosmopolitan). The Sabaots have been sidelined in the matrix and you can guess where their votes belong to. 2. Some former Amani seats in Kakamega will definitely fall to Jubilee. Here, i have in mind Navakholo, Mumias East and Matungu. Mumias West will vote approx 30% Jubilee ( I will not elaborate). Overall, Uhuru got Approx 65K votes in the entire region. If he doubles this figure (He surely will), he will have over-achieved. Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/18/2011 Posts: 12,069 Location: Kianjokoma
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FRM2011 wrote: Can Jubilee atleast try to be representative kidogo.
Below are the nominations lists as forwarded to IEBC.
Ama like our people say, "gaka ni ka mwene" hii ina wenyewe.
JUBILEE PARTY Beth Mugo (78years) Cecily Mbarire David Sankok, Milcent Omanga Faith Waigwa Jackson Kosgei Veronica Maina.
ODM PARTY Wilson Sossion ,Hon Danita Ghati ,Seth Kakuzie, Hadija Hussein Harold kimuge Kipchumba Beatrice Kwamboka Rebecca Lomoiya(Turkana) Fatima Abdi Masitsa Ndombi
Uhuru is a big let down with his promotion of his privileged family
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/31/2008 Posts: 1,076
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FRM2011 wrote: Can Jubilee atleast try to be representative kidogo.
Below are the nominations lists as forwarded to IEBC.
Ama like our people say, "gaka ni ka mwene" hii ina wenyewe.
JUBILEE PARTY Beth Mugo (78years) Cecily Mbarire David Sankok, Milcent Omanga Faith Waigwa Jackson Kosgei Veronica Maina.
ODM PARTY Wilson Sossion ,Hon Danita Ghati ,Seth Kakuzie, Hadija Hussein Harold kimuge Kipchumba Beatrice Kwamboka Rebecca Lomoiya(Turkana) Fatima Abdi Masitsa Ndombi
Dunia ni msongamano..
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