Wazua
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Kenya Airways...why ignore..
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,798 Location: nairobi
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ArrestedDev wrote:actuarywahisa wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:Ericsson wrote:@muandiwambeu
KQ will still go back to the same hole since they have said they intend to take more debt The moot here is eps and mp at the best case scenario. deleveraging has got nothing to do with efficient use of the assets and neither does it reduces cost of capital since the banks will definitely demand dividend to their investment. Further, taxation burden will increase overall. Concessions are inconsequential being a can of worms kicked down the road five yrs atop just expiring one's. Do not underestimate the power of concessions on tenure to reduce pressure on an entity's cashflow. KQ has been trying to bring in experts in various departments to help actually improve operations. The concessions help to reduce pressure as the changes take effect. Whether the changes will be successful, that is another matter. I would stay out for now as there are quite a number of unknowns e.g conversion price, the fine details of the concessions. KQ just like mumias is subject to so many external factors. Which experts have been brought in again? MJ & Mikosz.. The dream team. Some people have made gains of over 20% in the last three days on KQ.. Think about it
COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; IMH 5,000 ABP 35.55; KQ 604,200 ABP 6.96; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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obiero wrote:ArrestedDev wrote:actuarywahisa wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:Ericsson wrote:@muandiwambeu
KQ will still go back to the same hole since they have said they intend to take more debt The moot here is eps and mp at the best case scenario. deleveraging has got nothing to do with efficient use of the assets and neither does it reduces cost of capital since the banks will definitely demand dividend to their investment. Further, taxation burden will increase overall. Concessions are inconsequential being a can of worms kicked down the road five yrs atop just expiring one's. Do not underestimate the power of concessions on tenure to reduce pressure on an entity's cashflow. KQ has been trying to bring in experts in various departments to help actually improve operations. The concessions help to reduce pressure as the changes take effect. Whether the changes will be successful, that is another matter. I would stay out for now as there are quite a number of unknowns e.g conversion price, the fine details of the concessions. KQ just like mumias is subject to so many external factors. Which experts have been brought in again? MJ & Mikosz.. The dream team. Some people have made gains of over 20% in the last three days on KQ.. Think about it Intra day on all shares is -10 to +10 so theoretically you can make 20% on any share in a day if you buy at lower range and sell at upper range. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,798 Location: nairobi
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sparkly wrote:obiero wrote:ArrestedDev wrote:actuarywahisa wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:Ericsson wrote:@muandiwambeu
KQ will still go back to the same hole since they have said they intend to take more debt The moot here is eps and mp at the best case scenario. deleveraging has got nothing to do with efficient use of the assets and neither does it reduces cost of capital since the banks will definitely demand dividend to their investment. Further, taxation burden will increase overall. Concessions are inconsequential being a can of worms kicked down the road five yrs atop just expiring one's. Do not underestimate the power of concessions on tenure to reduce pressure on an entity's cashflow. KQ has been trying to bring in experts in various departments to help actually improve operations. The concessions help to reduce pressure as the changes take effect. Whether the changes will be successful, that is another matter. I would stay out for now as there are quite a number of unknowns e.g conversion price, the fine details of the concessions. KQ just like mumias is subject to so many external factors. Which experts have been brought in again? MJ & Mikosz.. The dream team. Some people have made gains of over 20% in the last three days on KQ.. Think about it Intra day on all shares is -10 to +10 so theoretically you can make 20% on any share in a day if you buy at lower range and sell at upper range. @wazua expects better of you
COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; IMH 5,000 ABP 35.55; KQ 604,200 ABP 6.96; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,779 Location: NAIROBI
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obiero wrote:actuarywahisa wrote:obiero wrote:[quote=Ericsson]Kq is still in negative equity. Government loans amounting to $243mn is what will be converted to equity.
$525mn owed to US Exim Bank and $225mn owed to local lenders will have to be repaid with GOK acting as guarantor.
Local lenders/banks will not own any stake in KQ. You could be right and that would imply less dilution.. Meanwhile, airlines and negative equity go hand in hand.. It's a normal thingy which we have already discussed here. The cash flow is what will be increased via the tenor concessions.. And that is a very good thing... As for bank debt to equity position, soma hii link along with the cautionary statement http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN1962OA[/quote] The $225m for local banks will be converted to equity and then the deal appears for them to exit through open market. In the event that they are unable to exit and recover their money within the set timelines because of share price not recovering sufficiently then the government has to step in and compensate. And in the unlikely event that KQ folds then the Government wires capital + interest. @actuary seems @Ericsson did not go to school.. Could we team up and send the guy for gumbaru Kweli sikwenda shule. Tafakari haya basi "KQ, as it is known by its international code, secured House approval that will see the Treasury guarantee long-term loans that the airline owes the US Exim Bank ($525 million) and local lenders ($225 million). These guarantees are being made in exchange for “material concessions” that include an extension of debt tenors, which will improve the airline’s repayment obligations." http://www.businessdaily...976768-cxrmd3/index.htmlWealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/21/2014 Posts: 184
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Ericsson... wachana na Obiero. The article states that but from other sources it is very clear that there will be a conversion to equity. The deal is to convert and they attempt to exit through market but if company folds then it will be paid the amount owed originally plus extra interest. There are too many opportunities all around. Open your eyes and maybe you'll spot one
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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obiero wrote:sparkly wrote:obiero wrote:ArrestedDev wrote:actuarywahisa wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:Ericsson wrote:@muandiwambeu
KQ will still go back to the same hole since they have said they intend to take more debt The moot here is eps and mp at the best case scenario. deleveraging has got nothing to do with efficient use of the assets and neither does it reduces cost of capital since the banks will definitely demand dividend to their investment. Further, taxation burden will increase overall. Concessions are inconsequential being a can of worms kicked down the road five yrs atop just expiring one's. Do not underestimate the power of concessions on tenure to reduce pressure on an entity's cashflow. KQ has been trying to bring in experts in various departments to help actually improve operations. The concessions help to reduce pressure as the changes take effect. Whether the changes will be successful, that is another matter. I would stay out for now as there are quite a number of unknowns e.g conversion price, the fine details of the concessions. KQ just like mumias is subject to so many external factors. Which experts have been brought in again? MJ & Mikosz.. The dream team. Some people have made gains of over 20% in the last three days on KQ.. Think about it Intra day on all shares is -10 to +10 so theoretically you can make 20% on any share in a day if you buy at lower range and sell at upper range. @wazua expects better of you I am glad that you see the theory but recognise that it's impossible to pull off. I made my point. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,798 Location: nairobi
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obiero wrote:5 key questions to ponder prior to dismissal of PJT Partner's KQ restructuring deal and its subsequent ripple effect on the share:
1. Exactly/approximately how many new shares are being created?
A. Not less than 3.5B new shares
2. What price was agreed for the purchase of each new share
. Or maybe this wasn't discussed?
A. This will only be known upon shareholders approval to the arrangement in late September.. Speculation to a positive skew will therefore be at play until then, due to the capital restructuring success
3. Will the new issuance imply that minority shareholders get diluted with no recourse
pro rata
?
A. No. Every existing shareholder will be offered a chance to defend their rights so as to retain proportionate holding.. However it is likely to be a large cash call
4. When will KQ turn a profit
at the earliest?
A.Half year 2017/2018
5. Why are there no bulk sellers since the cautionary statement filtered out. Could it be that investors are eagerly waiting to sell at KES 2 to @spikes & Co
A. Recent volume and price activity suggests upwards trend with upper limit of KES 10 per share a live possibility Its my time to eat but I will not eat alone.. Those with nerves of gold, and balls of steel.. Come ride this bull.. But make sure that you are able to defend your rights upon eventual declaration http://live.mystocks.co.ke/m/stock=KQ
COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; IMH 5,000 ABP 35.55; KQ 604,200 ABP 6.96; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,798 Location: nairobi
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obiero wrote:5 key questions to ponder prior to dismissal of PJT Partner's KQ restructuring deal and its subsequent ripple effect on the share:
1. Exactly/approximately how many new shares are being created?
A. Not less than 3.5B new shares
2. What price was agreed for the purchase of each new share
. Or maybe this wasn't discussed?
A. This will only be known upon shareholders approval to the arrangement in late September.. Speculation to a positive skew will therefore be at play until then, due to the capital restructuring success
3. Will the new issuance imply that minority shareholders get diluted with no recourse
pro rata
?
A. No. Every existing shareholder will be offered a chance to defend their rights so as to retain proportionate holding.. However it is likely to be a large cash call
4. When will KQ turn a profit
at the earliest?
A.Half year 2017/2018
5. Why are there no bulk sellers since the cautionary statement filtered out. Could it be that investors are eagerly waiting to sell at KES 2 to @spikes & Co
A. Recent volume and price activity suggests upwards trend with upper limit of KES 10 per share a live possibility Its my time to eat but I will not eat alone.. Those with nerves of gold, and balls of steel.. Come ride this bull.. But make sure that you are able to defend your rights upon eventual declaration http://live.mystocks.co.ke/m/stock=KQ
COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; IMH 5,000 ABP 35.55; KQ 604,200 ABP 6.96; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,798 Location: nairobi
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obiero wrote:obiero wrote:5 key questions to ponder prior to dismissal of PJT Partner's KQ restructuring deal and its subsequent ripple effect on the share:
1. Exactly/approximately how many new shares are being created?
2. What price was agreed for the purchase of each new share
. Or maybe this wasn't discussed?
3. Will the new issuance imply that minority shareholders get diluted with no recourse
pro rata
?
4. When will KQ turn a profit
at the earliest?
5. Why are there no bulk sellers since the cautionary statement filtered out. Could it be that investors are eagerly waiting to sell at KES 2 to @spikes & Co none of the questions above are answered apart from number 4 & 5.. By October we will have a profit and bulk buyers have appeared at KES 5.75 which is the new floor pending issuance of the new shares pro rata, since there is no way on earth that the minority shareholders will be diluted without any due regard. That analysis from Genghis Capital claiming KES 1.2 as the diluted price per share, is weaker than Mugabe's knees.. My forecast, KQ shareholders will have the right to subscribe to 20 new ordinary shares for every 5 ordinary shares held on the register closing date at a price not higher than KES 5.50 per share, with the new allocation ranking pari passu Genghis Capital exposed http://www.businessdaily...976226-58l4q3/index.html
COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; IMH 5,000 ABP 35.55; KQ 604,200 ABP 6.96; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/21/2014 Posts: 184
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The cat has started on its way down. This is the problem with seeing a cat jumping from one roof to another and confusing it with a bird.  There are too many opportunities all around. Open your eyes and maybe you'll spot one
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,798 Location: nairobi
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actuarywahisa wrote:The cat has started on its way down. This is the problem with seeing a cat jumping from one roof to another and confusing it with a bird. Lol.. No market nor stock can rise in perpetuity.. Stops are necessary to allow picking up of more passengers. The volume action is positive. Wish you all the best, even as you will me the opposite
COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; IMH 5,000 ABP 35.55; KQ 604,200 ABP 6.96; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,798 Location: nairobi
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obiero wrote:[quote=obiero]5 key questions to ponder prior to dismissal of PJT Partner's KQ restructuring deal and its subsequent ripple effect on the share:
1. Exactly/approximately how many new shares are being created?
A. Not less than 3.5B new shares
2. What price was agreed for the purchase of each new share
. Or maybe this wasn't discussed?
A. This will only be known upon shareholders approval to the arrangement in late September.. Speculation to a positive skew will therefore be at play until then, due to the capital restructuring success
3. Will the new issuance imply that minority shareholders get diluted with no recourse
pro rata
?
A. No. Every existing shareholder will be offered a chance to defend their rights so as to retain proportionate holding.. However it is likely to be a large cash call
4. When will KQ turn a profit
at the earliest?
A.Half year 2017/2018
5. Why are there no bulk sellers since the cautionary statement filtered out. Could it be that investors are eagerly waiting to sell at KES 2 to @spikes & Co
A. Recent volume and price activity suggests upwards trend with upper limit of KES 10 per share a live possibility Time and tide waits for no man
COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; IMH 5,000 ABP 35.55; KQ 604,200 ABP 6.96; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,798 Location: nairobi
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COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; IMH 5,000 ABP 35.55; KQ 604,200 ABP 6.96; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,798 Location: nairobi
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10+ reasons to believe in operation pride at KQ and position oneself for the return of a lifetime: 1. Financial revamp via reduced debt load and longer tenors 2. Cleaned up board and management 3. Cut off on HOTAC and other operational expenses 4. Fuel efficient planes , with one of the youngest fleet, globally 5. Route optimization especially in Africa 6. Category 1 status at main hub 7. GoK guaranteed debt hence reduced working capital funding cost 8. Global reduction in fuel costs 9. Revival in KE tourism 10. Budget carrier for booming middle-class 11. End of hedging policy 12. Strong forex holding with primary pricing being USD
COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; IMH 5,000 ABP 35.55; KQ 604,200 ABP 6.96; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/29/2016 Posts: 898 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:10+ reasons to believe in operation pride at KQ and position oneself for the return of a lifetime:
1. Financial revamp via reduced debt load
and longer tenors
2. Cleaned up board and management
3. Cut off on HOTAC and other operational expenses
4. Fuel efficient planes
, with one of the youngest fleet, globally
5. Route optimization especially in Africa
6. Category 1 status at main hub
7. GoK guaranteed debt hence reduced working capital funding cost
8. Global reduction in fuel costs
9. Revival in KE tourism
10. Budget carrier for booming middle-class
11. End of hedging policy
12. Strong forex holding with primary pricing being USD
Restructuring takes time. A mess created over a number of years cannot be corrected in 18 months as earlier claimed by Ngunze. Hold your horses for now. Sebastian is yet to even come out and tell us what he is going to do differently.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,798 Location: nairobi
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ArrestedDev wrote:obiero wrote:10+ reasons to believe in operation pride at KQ and position oneself for the return of a lifetime:
1. Financial revamp via reduced debt load
and longer tenors
2. Cleaned up board and management
3. Cut off on HOTAC and other operational expenses
4. Fuel efficient planes
, with one of the youngest fleet, globally
5. Route optimization especially in Africa
6. Category 1 status at main hub
7. GoK guaranteed debt hence reduced working capital funding cost
8. Global reduction in fuel costs
9. Revival in KE tourism
10. Budget carrier for booming middle-class
11. End of hedging policy
12. Strong forex holding with primary pricing being USD
Restructuring takes time. A mess created over a number of years cannot be corrected in 18 months as earlier claimed by Ngunze. Hold your horses for now. Sebastian is yet to even come out and tell us what he is going to do differently. We do not need to hear anything from Mikosz.. Quiet workers are the best type.. Meanwhile, a profit is on the way
COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; IMH 5,000 ABP 35.55; KQ 604,200 ABP 6.96; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/29/2016 Posts: 898 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:ArrestedDev wrote:obiero wrote:10+ reasons to believe in operation pride at KQ and position oneself for the return of a lifetime:
1. Financial revamp via reduced debt load
and longer tenors
2. Cleaned up board and management
3. Cut off on HOTAC and other operational expenses
4. Fuel efficient planes
, with one of the youngest fleet, globally
5. Route optimization especially in Africa
6. Category 1 status at main hub
7. GoK guaranteed debt hence reduced working capital funding cost
8. Global reduction in fuel costs
9. Revival in KE tourism
10. Budget carrier for booming middle-class
11. End of hedging policy
12. Strong forex holding with primary pricing being USD
Restructuring takes time. A mess created over a number of years cannot be corrected in 18 months as earlier claimed by Ngunze. Hold your horses for now. Sebastian is yet to even come out and tell us what he is going to do differently. We do not need to hear anything from Mikosz.. Quiet workers are the best type.. Meanwhile, a profit is on the way We will have hear from him. He must be busy studying the books and procedures. One day- he will have to say what he has been up to since taking office. He knows how to engage the media.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,798 Location: nairobi
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ArrestedDev wrote:obiero wrote:ArrestedDev wrote:obiero wrote:10+ reasons to believe in operation pride at KQ and position oneself for the return of a lifetime:
1. Financial revamp via reduced debt load
and longer tenors
2. Cleaned up board and management
3. Cut off on HOTAC and other operational expenses
4. Fuel efficient planes
, with one of the youngest fleet, globally
5. Route optimization especially in Africa
6. Category 1 status at main hub
7. GoK guaranteed debt hence reduced working capital funding cost
8. Global reduction in fuel costs
9. Revival in KE tourism
10. Budget carrier for booming middle-class
11. End of hedging policy
12. Strong forex holding with primary pricing being USD
Restructuring takes time. A mess created over a number of years cannot be corrected in 18 months as earlier claimed by Ngunze. Hold your horses for now. Sebastian is yet to even come out and tell us what he is going to do differently. We do not need to hear anything from Mikosz.. Quiet workers are the best type.. Meanwhile, a profit is on the way We will have hear from him. He must be busy studying the books and procedures. One day- he will have to say what he has been up to since taking office. He knows how to engage the media. @arresteddev that is true.. He has to study the current layout, policies, procedures.. Lets give him time to settle in, instead of jumping to early conclusions
COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; IMH 5,000 ABP 35.55; KQ 604,200 ABP 6.96; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
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ArrestedDev wrote:obiero wrote:ArrestedDev wrote:obiero wrote:10+ reasons to believe in operation pride at KQ and position oneself for the return of a lifetime:
1. Financial revamp via reduced debt load
and longer tenors
2. Cleaned up board and management
3. Cut off on HOTAC and other operational expenses
4. Fuel efficient planes
, with one of the youngest fleet, globally
5. Route optimization especially in Africa
6. Category 1 status at main hub
7. GoK guaranteed debt hence reduced working capital funding cost
8. Global reduction in fuel costs
9. Revival in KE tourism
10. Budget carrier for booming middle-class
11. End of hedging policy
12. Strong forex holding with primary pricing being USD
Restructuring takes time. A mess created over a number of years cannot be corrected in 18 months as earlier claimed by Ngunze. Hold your horses for now. Sebastian is yet to even come out and tell us what he is going to do differently. We do not need to hear anything from Mikosz.. Quiet workers are the best type.. Meanwhile, a profit is on the way We will have hear from him. He must be busy studying the books and procedures. One day- he will have to say what he has been up to since taking office. He knows how to engage the media. He had gone to some air show in Paris...he did some video for the staff. possunt quia posse videntur
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,798 Location: nairobi
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maka wrote:ArrestedDev wrote:obiero wrote:ArrestedDev wrote:obiero wrote:10+ reasons to believe in operation pride at KQ and position oneself for the return of a lifetime:
1. Financial revamp via reduced debt load
and longer tenors
2. Cleaned up board and management
3. Cut off on HOTAC and other operational expenses
4. Fuel efficient planes
, with one of the youngest fleet, globally
5. Route optimization especially in Africa
6. Category 1 status at main hub
7. GoK guaranteed debt hence reduced working capital funding cost
8. Global reduction in fuel costs
9. Revival in KE tourism
10. Budget carrier for booming middle-class
11. End of hedging policy
12. Strong forex holding with primary pricing being USD
Restructuring takes time. A mess created over a number of years cannot be corrected in 18 months as earlier claimed by Ngunze. Hold your horses for now. Sebastian is yet to even come out and tell us what he is going to do differently. We do not need to hear anything from Mikosz.. Quiet workers are the best type.. Meanwhile, a profit is on the way We will have hear from him. He must be busy studying the books and procedures. One day- he will have to say what he has been up to since taking office. He knows how to engage the media. He had gone to some air show in Paris...he did some video for the staff. @maka you are making matters worse.. I hope it wasn't more than the weekend. Mikosz needs to give 100% to KQ
COOP 255,000 ABP 15.85; IMH 5,000 ABP 35.55; KQ 604,200 ABP 6.96; MTN 23,800 ABP 5.20
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