FRM2011 wrote:Wakanyugi wrote:I just watched NTV and there was Maalim threatening that if their parallel vote tally differs from IEBC they will swear in their own President and essentially make Kenya ungovernable. Sounds familiar?
These hawkish idiots need to be told that every time they open their mouths they are essentially campaigning for Jubilee.
Raila will not win unless he can make serious inroads into either Rift Valley or Central, that is a demographic fact. Meaning he has to stake an ideological position in the Center, eschew this ethnic divide and rule crap and run on a superior economic and social platform than Jubilee. It can be done.
But how long will it take for this simple lesson to sink in? NKT!!
Would you be kind enough to explain the demographic "fact" ? Would help if you'd refer to the population stats. Otherwise you just sneaked a fallacy in your argument right there.
I am tempted to do the numbers again, but this has already been done adequately, including on Wazua. Please google.
So let me do some crude ethnic maths and psychology instead:
1. To win a national election in Kenya you need one of two things: the support of two large tribes with high voter turn out or many small tribes with high voter turn out. Uhuruto can count on at least 80% turn out in Rift Valley and Central. Can Raila count on the same in the rest of Kenya?
2. The reason for the above is not patriotism; or tribalism as Lazy NSA's are wont to claim. It has everything do with the siege mentality that started with the Kikuyu and is now spreading among the Kalenjin. Unfortunately this is a situation that Raila and his fellow hawks can not help reinforcing every time they open their mouths; what with their penchant for preaching to the already converted. It is this mentality that makes it so easy to tar Raila as a bogeyman and converts into millions of votes come election day. What could Raila do today that would scare the rest of Kenya into voting for him in similar numbers?
You may have a different theory and I would like to hear it. But for Raila to win he has to run on a superior platform that attracts a majority of Kenyans and cast himself as a friend of the Kikuyu and the Kalenjin, not the enemy he has been painted to be. You can not scare people into loving you.
"The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth." (Niels Bohr)