Monday 08th of May 2017
Morning
Africa
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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.keread more
@The_Mentalyst The morning after. View of Mt.Kenya
Africa
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@David_Yarrow Taken one early morning this week in the #MassaiMara. She really is quite beautiful. So smart, alert, regal and so totally unfazed be me.
Africa
Macro Thoughts
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#Euro rally proves short-lived as Macron victory already priced-in @Schuldensuehner 1.0973 Last
Africa
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"He was wrapped in flames": photographer @rschemidt recalls the man set ablaze this week in Caracas
Africa
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WTI Crude Oil Chart 4708 Last
Africa
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Commodity Markets and a Crude Oil Price Target of $32.00 a Barrel. The Star
Africa
The Bloomberg Commodity Index [energy 30.57%, grains 23.46%,
industrial metals 17.39%, precious metals 15.29%, Softs ( coffee,
sugar, cotton ) and 7.22%, livestock 6.07%] closed Friday at 82.6787,
just 9.733% above a five-year low struck in January 2015. The Index is
-5.53% in 2017. The commodity complex is not monolithic, it's
multi-sided. Crude oil and gold are the big head-line grabbers, and I
will return to crude oil momentarily.
The breakfast commodities [think of what a good breakfast contains]
rolled over a while back. Coffee and cocoa prices are at multi-year
lows. The high-flying Cote D'Ivoire has already dialled up Christine
Lagarde at the IMF. Interestingly, here in Kenya, with food inflation
at an eye-popping 21% year-on-year, we have seen the prices of our
breakfast commodities squeeze higher. Internationally, sugar prices
are at two-year low,s but here we are at an all time high. This
anomaly is something we should be discussing, but I am not afforded
the space to do that in today's article. Those sugar licences are,
however, worth their weight in gold. Avocados [which are not in the
commodity basket] have found an off-ramp and are at all-time highs.
Kakuzi, which is listed at the Nairobi Securities Exchange, and has a
market capitalisation of $55m (Sh5.67 billion) grows a lot of
avocados, by the way.
Anyway, I have digressed and want to turn to crude oil which is the
big beast in the commodity complex, the elephant in the room as it
were. Crude Oil Prices have plunged -13% in three weeks and WTI crude
oil traded Friday morning below $44.00 a barrel before recovering to
close at $46.22 a barrel, a one-year low. This is a far cry from the
“Go-Go” days. Nicholas Maduro's Venezuela is at breaking point. Other
capitals are going to run out of options. I have previously spoken
about How the US shale [cow]boys have OPEC over a proverbial barrel.
Shale can turn the tap on faster than OPEC can turn it off. The US oil
rig count has more than doubled from a year ago to 703 this week,
according to Baker Hughes Inc's data Friday. Nationwide crude
production rose to 9.29 million barrels a day last week, the highest
level since August 2015, according to the Energy Information
Administration.
The OPEC “Go-Go” days of Sheikh Yamani, his prayer beads and delphic
pronouncements belong to yesteryear. Mohammed Sanusi Barkindo, the
current OPEC secretary-general, is a poor imitation of Yamani and is
playing with a set of cards that is stacked against him. Reserves have
been depleted from Abuja to Riyadh, from Luanda to Caracas and in all
the oil producing capitals in the world. So many capitals are fiddling
while sitting on a tinderbox and playing with matches. The deputy
Crown Prince was quoted on Al-Arabiyya about Iran: "How can I
communicate with them while they prepare for the arrival of al-Mahdi
al-Montazar?"
This is deluded thinking at a time when things could seriously fall apart:
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand [W.B Yeats The Second Coming]
On Friday, about $7 million worth of options changed hands that will
pay off if WTI crude falls beneath $39 a barrel by mid-July, according
to data compiled by Bloomberg. Options trading can be a little like
buying a ticket to the lottery, but the point is we need to be
modelling what a $39.00 a barrel price will look and feel like. We
have experienced a precipitous downside move and, in my opinion, the
exponential recent momentum is signalling there is further to go. My
price target is $32.00 a barrel. Crude oil prices in extremis move
exponentially. This move has all the ingredients for turning
exponential. Some thought they found a floor Friday, but I expect them
to be rudely awakened.
It's a wizard of Oz moment, folks. There is no one behind the curtain
and this market is primed to crash.
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AUG-2015 The end is nigh for crude oil and oil producers from Caracas to Luanda, from Riyadh to Abuja
Africa
MANY years ago and when I was a boarder at Westminster school, I used
to like wandering the streets of central London on the weekend. My
typical circuit would pass by 10 Downing Street, Trafalgar Square, St
James and Green Parks, and I would often times end up at Speaker’s
Corner in Hyde Park. Speaker’s Corner was a place where anyone stand
up and speak about anything they chose. I am talking about a period
when the then Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini was upending the Peacock
Throne, when Mrs. Thatcher was upending the Labour Party and Blondie
was top of the charts.
The curious thing about these Sunday meanderings around London was
that I would always come across a fellow, a walking bill-board as it
were and on the front and the back would be written: ‘’The end is
nigh’’
It was like a Paul Auster novel. I would see him in Trafalgar Square,
then he might pop up at Speaker’s Corner and once even in the
cloisters at Westminster Abbey. This kind of thing can unhinge a
teenager.
Why am I bringing this up from the recesses of My Memory’s Mausoleum?
Well “The end is nigh’’ for crude oil and oil producers from Caracas
to Luanda, from Riyadh to Abuja who were squealing like pigs are about
to be served up as rashers. Oil in New York closed below $44.00 a
barrel on Friday and has more to fall. Think about this, given South
Sudan’s contractual arrangements, they might soon be paying for each
barrel they extract from the ground. Oil is now in free fall. The end
is nigh for the oil based, rentier economies. President Obama, first
Kenyan-American president of the United States and oil warfare
specialist, has scored the equivalent of a hat-trick at the World Cup
in how he has advanced the US national interest by using the price of
oil as a geopolitical spear. Oil based economies are going to
contract, currencies which have already collapsed are going to be
routed and Greek- style austerity will be the order of the day. The
melt-down is coming.
Ryszard Kapuciski said: “If the crowd disperses, goes home, does not
reassemble, we say the revolution is over.”
The revolution is only just beginning.
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@zerohedge Eric Peters on oil bulls
Africa
Home Thoughts
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@goodmorningblog Auf Kreuzfahrt im Indischen Ozean - Einmal abtauchen ins Paradies bitte!
Africa
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A record number of climbers are attempting to scale Everest this season @business
Africa
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William Butler Yeats (1865-1939) THE SECOND COMING
Africa
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: a waste of desert sand;
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Wind shadows of the indignant desert birds.
The darkness drops again but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
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#Rodeo by Joseph Tam @8891Anna @richirsv
Africa
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@EmmanuelMacron Je vous servirai au nom de notre devise : Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite
Law & Politics
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#instantane #presidentielle2017 A Tulle, Francois Hollande devant une TV qui diffuse le moment du vote d'Emmanuel Macron au Touquet #AFP @afpfr
Law & Politics
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Elections in France are Freudian: a woman who "killed" her father challenges a man who married his "mother". Heard on the BBC @sbmizrahi
Law & Politics
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The Observer The great British Brexit robbery: how our democracy was hijacked
Law & Politics
In June 2013, a young American postgraduate called Sophie was passing
through London when she called up the boss of a firm where she’d
previously interned. The company, SCL Elections, went on to be bought
by Robert Mercer, a secretive hedge fund billionaire, renamed
Cambridge Analytica, and achieved a certain notoriety as the data
analytics firm that played a role in both Trump and Brexit campaigns.
But all of this was still to come. London in 2013 was still basking in
the afterglow of the Olympics. Britain had not yet Brexited. The world
had not yet turned.
“That was before we became this dark, dystopian data company that gave
the world Trump,” a former Cambridge Analytica employee who I’ll call
Paul tells me. “It was back when we were still just a psychological
warfare firm.”
Was that really what you called it, I ask him. Psychological warfare?
“Totally. That’s what it is. Psyops. Psychological operations – the
same methods the military use to effect mass sentiment change. It’s
what they mean by winning ‘hearts and minds’. We were just doing it to
win elections in the kind of developing countries that don’t have many
rules.”
Why would anyone want to intern with a psychological warfare firm, I
ask him. And he looks at me like I am mad. “It was like working for
MI6. Only it’s MI6 for hire. It was very posh, very English, run by an
old Etonian and you got to do some really cool things. Fly all over
the world. You were working with the president of Kenya or Ghana or
wherever. It’s not like election campaigns in the west. You got to do
all sorts of crazy shit.”
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On that day in June 2013, Sophie met up with SCL’s chief executive,
Alexander Nix, and gave him the germ of an idea. “She said, ‘You
really need to get into data.’ She really drummed it home to
Alexander. And she suggested he meet this firm that belonged to
someone she knew about through her father.”
Who’s her father?
“Eric Schmidt.”
Eric Schmidt – the chairman of Google?
“Yes. And she suggested Alexander should meet this company called Palantir.”
There are three strands to this story. How the foundations of an
authoritarian surveillance state are being laid in the US. How British
democracy was subverted through a covert, far-reaching plan of
coordination enabled by a US billionaire. And how we are in the midst
of a massive land grab for power by billionaires via our data. Data
which is being silently amassed, harvested and stored. Whoever owns
this data owns the future.
Paul and David, another ex-Cambridge Analytica employee, were working
at the firm when it introduced mass data-harvesting to its
psychological warfare techniques. “It brought psychology, propaganda
and technology together in this powerful new way,” David tells me.
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05-DEC-2016 :: "We have a deviate, Tomahawk."
Law & Politics
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U.S. far-right activists, WikiLeaks and bots help amplify Macron leaks: researchers Reuters
Law & Politics
Analysis conducted by The Atlantic Council's Digital Forensic Research
Lab published on Saturday found that the hashtag #MacronLeaks reached
47,000 tweets in three and a half hours after it was first used by
Jack Posobiec, a writer in Washington for the far-right news
organization The Rebel. Posobiec's online biography said he
coordinated grassroots organizing for a group that supported U.S.
President Donald Trump's campaign.
Posobiec's initial tweet on the Macron documents was retweeted fifteen
times within one minute and 87 times in five minutes, Atlantic Council
senior fellow Ben Nimmo wrote in a blog published on Medium.
Posobiec is prolific on Twitter, where he has a large following of
more than 100,000 accounts. Contacted by Reuters, Posobiec said he did
not operate bots and that he used his account to share a post he saw
on 4chan.
Bots helped move the hashtag from the United States to France,
according to Nimmo, where surveys show far-right leader Marine Le Pen
trailing Macron by more than 20 points heading into Sunday's election.
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05th-DEC-2016 :: "We have a deviate, Tomahawk."
Law & Politics
From feeding the hot-house conspiracy frenzy on line (‘’a constant
state of destabilised perception’’), timely and judicious doses of
Wikileaks leaks which drained Hillary’s bona fides and her turn-out
and motivated Trump’s, what we have witnessed is something remarkable
and noteworthy.
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Ai Weiwei: How Censorship Works @aiww
Law & Politics
BEIJING — In the space of a month in 2014, at separate art exhibitions
in Beijing and Shanghai that included my work, my name was blotted out
— in one case by government officials and by exhibitors themselves in
the other case. Some people might take such treatment in stride, as
nothing to get huffy about. But as an artist, I view the labels on my
work as a measure of the value I have produced — like water-level
markers at a riverbank. Other people might just shrug, but I can’t. I
have no illusions, though, that my unwillingness to shrug affects
anyone else’s willingness to do so.
Life in China is saturated with pretense. People feign ignorance and
speak in ambiguities. Everyone in China knows that a censorship system
exists, but there is very little discussion of why it exists.
At first glance, the censorship seems invisible, but its omnipresent
washing of people’s feelings and perceptions creates limits on the
information people receive, select and rely upon. The content offered
by the Chinese state media, after its processing by political censors,
is not free information. It is information that has been chosen,
filtered and assigned its place, inevitably restricting the free and
independent will of readers and viewers.
The harm of a censorship system is not just that it impoverishes
intellectual life; it also fundamentally distorts the rational order
in which the natural and spiritual worlds are understood. The
censorship system relies on robbing a person of the self-perception
that one needs in order to maintain an independent existence. It cuts
off one’s access to independence and happiness.
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'Mother' should not be used to describe a bomb, Pope says @ReutersUK
Law & Politics
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The S&P rises 0.4% to close at an all-time high @business
Law & Politics
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Euro trades at $1.10 for the first time since November 9 @markets 1.0972 Last
International Trade
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies
Euro 1.0972
Dollar Index 98.75
Japan Yen 112.73
Swiss Franc 0.9900
Pound 1.2961
Aussie 0.7402
India Rupee 64.255
South Korea Won 1130.95
Brazil Real 3.1760
Egypt Pound 18.1284
South Africa Rand 13.5061
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Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 98.762 [fading]
World Currencies
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Sterling 1 Year Chart INO 1.2962
World Currencies
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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities
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Gold 3 month INO 1231.17
Commodities
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"There is still further downside ahead, even if a dead cat bounce can be expected in the short term" @FT
Commodities
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Crude Oil 3 Month Chart INO 46.83 Last [32.00 Target]
Commodities
Emerging Markets
Frontier Markets
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He's a Real Contender to Lead Congo, if Only He Could Get In
Africa
Moïse Katumbi, the opposition leader in the Democratic Republic of
Congo, has everything a presidential candidate needs: money, a strong
record in government, nationwide recognition and, to top it all off, a
wildly popular soccer club.
Yet Mr. Katumbi lacks one vital element: He has not set foot in the
country for a year — and is threatened with arrest, or worse, should
he try to return.
President Joseph Kabila, who has run the country for 16 years and is
reluctant to leave power, regards him as his greatest threat. So Mr.
Katumbi, who faces prison time for what he says are politically
motivated charges against him, has been playing a drawn-out guessing
game with his supporters, who are growing impatient over when exactly
he plans to return.
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06-JUN-2016 'Birthday-Boy' President Joseph Kabila is constitutionally barred from running for the third term, and @moise_katumbi has set out his stall now and is a formidable adversary.
Africa
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06-JUN-2016 In fact, the numbers were building and Katumbi must have been thinking this might just turn into a Tsunami.
Africa
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06-JUN-2016 President Kabila, however, outwitted Katumbi by removing him from the street and the Congo entirely. is might well prove a cleverly administered technical knock-out.
Africa
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Angola's net foreign exchange reserves fell to $19.20 billion in March from $20.89 billion in February
Africa
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Somalis Report Helicopter Raid Near Where U.S. Soldier Killed
Africa
Foreign and Somali forces struck the base near the village of
Awdhegle, Hassan Yare, a police officer in the area, said Friday by
phone, without identifying the nationality of the international
troops. The fighting occurred about 12 kilometers (7.5 miles) from the
town of Barii, where the U.S. Africa Command said the American soldier
died while on an “advise and assist mission” with Somali government
forces.
“We were terrified by the exchange of gunfire and explosions between
the warring sides,” Macow Ali, a resident of Awdhegle, said by phone.
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Don't blame me for junk, says Gigaba @TimesLIVE
Africa
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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +5.78% 2017
Africa
Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 13.47
http://quotes.ino.com/ch...mp;t=c&a=50&w=1
Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 18.,1284
http://quotes.ino.com/ch...mp;t=c&a=50&w=1
BREAKING: Office of Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari says he is
going to London for medical checkup amid health fears. @AP
https://twitter.com/AP/status/861305141164728321
"These dear daughters of ours have seen the worst the world has to
offer. It is now time for them to experience the best..." #ChibokGirls
@NGRPresident
https://twitter.com/NGRP...atus/861130272028446721
Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -2.38% 2017
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND
Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +11.59% 2017
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND
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In Mozambique a person with albinism can be worth $4,000 to $75,000.
Africa
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@Safaricomltd reports FY Earnings this week share data here +2.61% 2017
Kenyan Economy
Par Value: 0.05/-
Closing Price: 19.65
Total Shares Issued: 40065428000.00
Market Capitalization: 787,285,660,200
EPS: 0.95
PE: 20.684
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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 103.10
Kenyan Economy
Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +1,41% 2017
http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND
Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -1.23% 2017
http://j.mp/ajuMHJ
Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php
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N.S.E Today
The markets reacted in a muted fashion to the Emmanuel Macron win in
France. The Euro which printed trades above 1.10+ and at November 2016
highs came off the top to trade at 1.0946 last and was a classic ''Buy
the Rumour Sell the Fact'' scenario.
Crude Oil which has slumped 13% in the space of 3 short weeks and was
last trading at $46.57. I am expecting a break-down as low as $32.00.
The Nairobi All Share spiked +1.18% to close at 136.82 and at a
November 2016 High.
The Nairobi NSE20 Index firmed +7.34 points to close at 3154.38.
Equity Turnover was brisk at 784.642m.
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services
Safaricom ahead of its Full Year Earnings Release on wednesday this
week, surged +3.8% to close at a 2017 closing High of 20.75 and traded
22.92m shares worth 470.44m. Safaricom is +8.355% in 2017 and has
plenty of scope to the upside this week.
Kenya Airways has submitted an application for direct flights to the
U.S. setting June 2018 as the date for the inaugural landing in
Nairobi. Kenya Airways closed unchanged at 6.35 and the appointment of
a substantive CEO will encourage the price higher.
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment
Kestrel Capital put out a Research Note today which said
''We recommend LIGHTENs on EQUITY BANK, KCB BANK and CO-OP BANK due to
worse-than-expected effects of the interest rate controls as evidenced
by the 4Q16 results. Our estimated fair value for Equity Bank is KES
27.57, for KCB Bank is KES 27.66 and for Co-op Bank is KES 8.56 after
adjusting for the Co-op Bank bonus issue of 1 for every 5 shares
held''