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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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mnandii wrote: NSE 20 SHARE INDEX Expecting the current counter-trend rally to find resistance between 3189 and 3333 to complete blue wave [iv] Afterwards we should expect a fall to below 2800. There have been numerous counter-trends for the last one and half months or so in many spheres/markets that it is almost uncanny how synchronized things can get. Big moves coming up. The NSE has not been left behind though I don't expect it to last. Next week will be a good test for the current uptick. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Quote: ....But most economists don't know socionomics exists, and most of them would dismiss it if they did. Socionomic theory explains why such a reaction is, generally speaking, imperative: People are built better to participate in waves of social mood than to analyze them. So, it's very hard to get the word out. People like you, who do pure market analysis, have been the quickest to get it..... For full interview: linkConventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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SAFARICOM ANALYSIS  Five waves up to about 21.80. Now correcting in three waves. The first target for blue wave A is 14.35 (being the 38.2% retracement level of blue waves 1 to 5). Blue wave A is tracing out a zigzag (5-3-5) which consist of circled waves a, b then c. whereby Minute wave ((a)) is complete and we are in the last stages of circled wave ((b)). A closer look at blue wave A will follow shortly. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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SAFCOM ANALYSIS CLOSER LOOK AT BLUE WAVE A  Minute wave ((a)) , circled, ended at slightly below 16.00. Minute wave ((b)), circled, likely ended at 19.80, that level being 61.8% retracement of wave ((a)). That being the case we should expect wave ((c)) to carry below 16.00 and find support at 14.35 or thereabouts. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/30/2011 Posts: 207
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mnandii wrote:SAFCOM ANALYSIS CLOSER LOOK AT BLUE WAVE A Minute wave ((a)) , circled, ended at slightly below 16.00. Minute wave ((b)), circled, likely ended at 19.80, that level being 61.8% retracement of wave ((a)). That being the case we should expect wave ((c)) to carry below 16.00 and find support at 14.35 or thereabouts. Thank you for the insight... Much appreciated.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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lochaz-index wrote:mnandii wrote:NSE 20 SHARE INDEX Expecting the current counter-trend rally to find resistance between 3189 and 3333 to complete blue wave [iv] Afterwards we should expect a fall to below 2800. There have been numerous counter-trends for the last one and half months or so in many spheres/markets that it is almost uncanny how synchronized things can get. Big moves coming up. The NSE has not been left behind though I don't expect it to last. Next week will be a good test for the current uptick. This market has hit a dead head and punctured. Being mid week, heavy bleeding is on the way and this will definitely set the new trend down. Quarter 1 results beckoning on the doors. Who of the banks is likely to spew the nasty rotten beans first.  . Further to that, how will banks book their earnings from money packed with the Gava bonds. I really want to see the jargon that with be used during this reporting season.  . ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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mnandii wrote:SAFARICOM ANALYSIS Five waves up to about 21.80. Now correcting in three waves. The first target for blue wave A is 14.35 (being the 38.2% retracement level of blue waves 1 to 5). Blue wave A is tracing out a zigzag (5-3-5) which consist of circled waves a, b then c. whereby Minute wave ((a)) is complete and we are in the last stages of circled wave ((b)). A closer look at blue wave A will follow shortly.
It reached 20.75 today then closed at 20.50.... Which wave are we in now?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,218 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Waiting to see whether the Jan 2017 2790 low will be defended by the bulls post Safaricom results release....  @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Waiting to see whether the Jan 2017 2790 low will be defended by the bulls post Safaricom results release.... Been watching too. If the market slide is accompanied by KES weakness - which I think is about to cross the rubicon in the short-term (before the year is out) - then the February low will be routed without a fight. Safcom market cap is inching slowly to almost equal the market cap of all the remaining stocks in the bourse. Will Mr. Market grant that moment? Will both rallies (overall market and Safcom) fizzle out jointly or does the chasm widen? The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,175 Location: nairobi
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I expect the bull to rethink of coming back if the elections run smoothly "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/11/2010 Posts: 1,011 Location: nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:I expect the bull to rethink of coming back if the elections run smoothly NSE20 closes today at 3195 up 20points
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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bartum wrote:mlennyma wrote:I expect the bull to rethink of coming back if the elections run smoothly NSE20 closes today at 3195 up 20points I don't think there is much legroom to this mini-rally. It is flying into too many headwinds with minimal firepower...it is more of probing than a decent rally. However, if it cracks open 3300 mark that would make it interesting but overall I favor the bear for short and medium term with the election being a non-event. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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The market has managed to claw back above the 3300 level. Will be watching closely to see what type of breakout(which I suspect is a fakeout) this is but at least now the bulls have a seat at the table as they duke it out with the bears...previously it was all bear territory. Bulls driven by the less than calamitous haircuts on banks' earnings. This is keeping up with the global trend:US stocks retracing (European, emerging and frontier markets rallying), same as the dollar index and bond yields tanking. Markets however are fickle, all it takes is a single risk event to wipe out those gains. The more worrying scenario however which I think is the case for 2017 is that the markets are coiling before the real moves. How long this coiling occurs is the likely length of the window for this NSE20 bull and many others - likely to last no more than a few months at best. The real move looks to be dollar up, yields up(this will be very nasty and violent) and probably US stocks up at least on the 1 year horizon. Obviously the first two trends spell doom for all of European, emerging and frontier markets(including KE). This is not a trend KE can untether itself from. As long the coiling is taking place, NSE20 will rally but when it reverses be prepared for a bloodbath. The 2017 reversals have been an almighty effort to erase the 2016 tanking in the aftermath of Brexit. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,568
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lochaz-index wrote:The market has managed to claw back above the 3300 level. Will be watching closely to see what type of breakout(which I suspect is a fakeout) this is but at least now the bulls have a seat at the table as they duke it out with the bears...previously it was all bear territory. Bulls driven by the less than calamitous haircuts on banks' earnings.
This is keeping up with the global trend:US stocks retracing (European, emerging and frontier markets rallying), same as the dollar index and bond yields tanking. Markets however are fickle, all it takes is a single risk event to wipe out those gains. The more worrying scenario however which I think is the case for 2017 is that the markets are coiling before the real moves. How long this coiling occurs is the likely length of the window for this NSE20 bull and many others - likely to last no more than a few months at best.
The real move looks to be dollar up, yields up(this will be very nasty and violent) and probably US stocks up at least on the 1 year horizon. Obviously the first two trends spell doom for all of European, emerging and frontier markets(including KE). This is not a trend KE can untether itself from.
As long the coiling is taking place, NSE20 will rally but when it reverses be prepared for a bloodbath. The 2017 reversals have been an almighty effort to erase the 2016 tanking in the aftermath of Brexit. The market is failing to form the double bottom or triple bottom which would give a solid bull. In a double bottom scenario market should have re-tested the 2700 levels to shake out the last optimists. A current rally on this pattern takes us to around 4500 around the year 2020 which coincidentally is also the around the time when most the super-tall skyscrapers top out. Enjoy the ride 
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:The market has managed to claw back above the 3300 level. Will be watching closely to see what type of breakout(which I suspect is a fakeout) this is but at least now the bulls have a seat at the table as they duke it out with the bears...previously it was all bear territory. Bulls driven by the less than calamitous haircuts on banks' earnings.
This is keeping up with the global trend:US stocks retracing (European, emerging and frontier markets rallying), same as the dollar index and bond yields tanking. Markets however are fickle, all it takes is a single risk event to wipe out those gains. The more worrying scenario however which I think is the case for 2017 is that the markets are coiling before the real moves. How long this coiling occurs is the likely length of the window for this NSE20 bull and many others - likely to last no more than a few months at best.
The real move looks to be dollar up, yields up(this will be very nasty and violent) and probably US stocks up at least on the 1 year horizon. Obviously the first two trends spell doom for all of European, emerging and frontier markets(including KE). This is not a trend KE can untether itself from.
As long the coiling is taking place, NSE20 will rally but when it reverses be prepared for a bloodbath. The 2017 reversals have been an almighty effort to erase the 2016 tanking in the aftermath of Brexit. The market is failing to form the double bottom or triple bottom which would give a solid bull. In a double bottom scenario market should have re-tested the 2700 levels to shake out the last optimists. A current rally on this pattern takes us to around 4500 around the year 2020 which coincidentally is also the around the time when most the super-tall skyscrapers top out. Enjoy the ride Look at the chart keenly and notice the double bottom...  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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hisah wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:The market has managed to claw back above the 3300 level. Will be watching closely to see what type of breakout(which I suspect is a fakeout) this is but at least now the bulls have a seat at the table as they duke it out with the bears...previously it was all bear territory. Bulls driven by the less than calamitous haircuts on banks' earnings.
This is keeping up with the global trend:US stocks retracing (European, emerging and frontier markets rallying), same as the dollar index and bond yields tanking. Markets however are fickle, all it takes is a single risk event to wipe out those gains. The more worrying scenario however which I think is the case for 2017 is that the markets are coiling before the real moves. How long this coiling occurs is the likely length of the window for this NSE20 bull and many others - likely to last no more than a few months at best.
The real move looks to be dollar up, yields up(this will be very nasty and violent) and probably US stocks up at least on the 1 year horizon. Obviously the first two trends spell doom for all of European, emerging and frontier markets(including KE). This is not a trend KE can untether itself from.
As long the coiling is taking place, NSE20 will rally but when it reverses be prepared for a bloodbath. The 2017 reversals have been an almighty effort to erase the 2016 tanking in the aftermath of Brexit. The market is failing to form the double bottom or triple bottom which would give a solid bull. In a double bottom scenario market should have re-tested the 2700 levels to shake out the last optimists. A current rally on this pattern takes us to around 4500 around the year 2020 which coincidentally is also the around the time when most the super-tall skyscrapers top out. Enjoy the ride Look at the chart keenly and notice the double bottom... Check the 10 year chart..The bottom does not have to be exact but close
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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hisah wrote:wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:The market has managed to claw back above the 3300 level. Will be watching closely to see what type of breakout(which I suspect is a fakeout) this is but at least now the bulls have a seat at the table as they duke it out with the bears...previously it was all bear territory. Bulls driven by the less than calamitous haircuts on banks' earnings.
This is keeping up with the global trend:US stocks retracing (European, emerging and frontier markets rallying), same as the dollar index and bond yields tanking. Markets however are fickle, all it takes is a single risk event to wipe out those gains. The more worrying scenario however which I think is the case for 2017 is that the markets are coiling before the real moves. How long this coiling occurs is the likely length of the window for this NSE20 bull and many others - likely to last no more than a few months at best.
The real move looks to be dollar up, yields up(this will be very nasty and violent) and probably US stocks up at least on the 1 year horizon. Obviously the first two trends spell doom for all of European, emerging and frontier markets(including KE). This is not a trend KE can untether itself from.
As long the coiling is taking place, NSE20 will rally but when it reverses be prepared for a bloodbath. The 2017 reversals have been an almighty effort to erase the 2016 tanking in the aftermath of Brexit. The market is failing to form the double bottom or triple bottom which would give a solid bull. In a double bottom scenario market should have re-tested the 2700 levels to shake out the last optimists. A current rally on this pattern takes us to around 4500 around the year 2020 which coincidentally is also the around the time when most the super-tall skyscrapers top out. Enjoy the ride Look at the chart keenly and notice the double bottom... True, double bottom of sorts if one looks at 2011/2 and 2016/7. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@sparkly @metaspoilt, true to both as well as if you add the RSI lows it gets even more interesting. I'm looking at those 3 lows combined. If indeed this is the low, then the next rally should be able to take out the 6161 high on NSE20. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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hisah wrote:@sparkly @metaspoilt, true to both as well as if you add the RSI lows it gets even more interesting. I'm looking at those 3 lows combined. If indeed this is the low, then the next rally should be able to take out the 6161 high on NSE20. I noted this but didnt post the chart on my post under "madness at NSE" I have revoked my sell orders for now
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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wukan wrote:lochaz-index wrote:The market has managed to claw back above the 3300 level. Will be watching closely to see what type of breakout(which I suspect is a fakeout) this is but at least now the bulls have a seat at the table as they duke it out with the bears...previously it was all bear territory. Bulls driven by the less than calamitous haircuts on banks' earnings.
This is keeping up with the global trend:US stocks retracing (European, emerging and frontier markets rallying), same as the dollar index and bond yields tanking. Markets however are fickle, all it takes is a single risk event to wipe out those gains. The more worrying scenario however which I think is the case for 2017 is that the markets are coiling before the real moves. How long this coiling occurs is the likely length of the window for this NSE20 bull and many others - likely to last no more than a few months at best.
The real move looks to be dollar up, yields up(this will be very nasty and violent) and probably US stocks up at least on the 1 year horizon. Obviously the first two trends spell doom for all of European, emerging and frontier markets(including KE). This is not a trend KE can untether itself from.
As long the coiling is taking place, NSE20 will rally but when it reverses be prepared for a bloodbath. The 2017 reversals have been an almighty effort to erase the 2016 tanking in the aftermath of Brexit. The market is failing to form the double bottom or triple bottom which would give a solid bull. In a double bottom scenario market should have re-tested the 2700 levels to shake out the last optimists. A current rally on this pattern takes us to around 4500 around the year 2020 which coincidentally is also the around the time when most the super-tall skyscrapers top out. Enjoy the ride 4500 level in the year 2020? I don't know much with regards to TA so I can't comment on the double/triple bottom theory but my reading is that bears still have more than a fighting chance at current levels. To exhaust any downside pressure would need a reading above 4000 to pull clear of the 2016 limbo. Let's see how much of a push is packed in the bull strength or if the bears are saving their energy for one last bloodletting episode. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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