The kind of campaign the Kalonzo brigade is involved in currently, especially in Ukambani is inimical to the interests of NASA in the event that he is not the flag bearer.
The narrative rightly or wrongly has the effect of leaving the people feeling that they will have been played, if Kalonzo is not named the flag bearer, , especially if the eventual flag bearer turns out to be Raila.
Add to that what the likes of Governor Mutua, and a host of MPs led by Joe Mutambu have been saying over some time now, that Kalonzo is a weak leader, Raila is domineering over and playing him along with the rest and so on and so forth.
Any hopes of turning such an electorate around to support NASA regardless would appear optimistic beyond what is realistic, of course unless dynamics shift considerably.
In 2013, Ukambani found itself in a fix – delivering a protest vote.
In 2017 Ukambani seems increasingly headed to repeating history albeit in reverse.
As for Kalonzo, the stakes couldn’t be higher- his political obituary will be engraved in bold letters if he commits what the people will likely perceive as capitulation to the same guy AGAIN, despite the much talked about MOU!
Gift to Governor Mutua.
It is no secret that Governor Mutua has been angling to claim the ultimate political leader mantle in Ukambani.
His ace card has been predicated on the scenario above - a narrative that has remained on the lips of Ukambani folk. He and the Mutambus would be popping the champagne on account of ‘vindication’ – see we told you, but Kalonzo was too blind/visionless to see it.
It’s a do or die.
PS
I am acutely aware of the fluidity in politics - 180 degrees turns are never off the table for these guys. Even Raila can defect to Jubilee and characterise it as a move calculated to go and systematically torpedo the ship from within
Isuni yilu yi maa me muyo - ni Mbisuu