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FRM2011
#11 Posted : Wednesday, March 01, 2017 2:12:51 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 11/5/2010
Posts: 2,459
Bigchick wrote:
Swenani wrote:
Bigchick wrote:
kaka2za wrote:
thuks wrote:
kaka2za wrote:
Tired with Jubilee and not excited by NASA disgruntled voters might vote for fringe candidates and the protest Vote could deny either of the big two the 50%+1

And then what?


The dreaded 2nd round will happen


And a winner will emerge and life goes on.Whoever will be ahead except for 50%+1 will still emerge the winner as his supporters will still be there and maybe gain a little more from the losers since people like being associated with the winners.

Who really dreads round 2?Its just that its an unnecessay extension of the political madness as well as the cost implication.


This assumption is very pedestrian Bigshick, have you factored in the voter turn out in round 1 and 2 both which can change the outcome of round 2?



Please explain the voter turnout effect.
I agree my being very pedestrian in the thoughts.


Let me drop some numbers here. These are the voter turnouts in Kenya since 1992.

1992(69%), 1997(65%), 2002(57%), 2007(69%), 2013 (85.9%).

Which counties caused this unusual turnout in 2013?

Siaya (92%), Kisumu (90%), homabay (94%), kiambu (91%), Nyeri (93%), nyadarua (94%), Kirinyaga (91%).

For perspective, Belgium where voting is mandatory by law averages 95% turnout.

Question is can these counties sustain the same abnormal turnouts ?

Why did people turnout in these unusually high numbers ?

Are we likely to see a return to the normal range of 65%-80% ?
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Swenani
#12 Posted : Wednesday, March 01, 2017 3:20:36 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 8/15/2013
Posts: 13,237
Location: Vacuum
Bigchick wrote:
Swenani wrote:
Bigchick wrote:
kaka2za wrote:
thuks wrote:
kaka2za wrote:
Tired with Jubilee and not excited by NASA disgruntled voters might vote for fringe candidates and the protest Vote could deny either of the big two the 50%+1

And then what?


The dreaded 2nd round will happen


And a winner will emerge and life goes on.Whoever will be ahead except for 50%+1 will still emerge the winner as his supporters will still be there and maybe gain a little more from the losers since people like being associated with the winners.

Who really dreads round 2?Its just that its an unnecessay extension of the political madness as well as the cost implication.


This assumption is very pedestrian Bigshick, have you factored in the voter turn out in round 1 and 2 both which can change the outcome of round 2?



Please explain the voter turnout effect.
I agree my being very pedestrian in the thoughts.


If X wins with simple majority with an average 80% voter turnout in his/her strongholds while Y comes in second with an average turnout of 70% in their strongholds will X still win if s/he has an increased voter turnout to say 85% while Y has increased voter turnout of 83% in round 2, or if both average 99% voter turnout in round 2 will X still win?


If Obiero did it, Who Am I?
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, March 01, 2017 3:27 PM | Reason: Not specified
masukuma
#13 Posted : Wednesday, March 01, 2017 3:54:10 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/4/2006
Posts: 13,823
Location: Nairobi
FRM2011 wrote:
Bigchick wrote:
Swenani wrote:
Bigchick wrote:
kaka2za wrote:
thuks wrote:
kaka2za wrote:
Tired with Jubilee and not excited by NASA disgruntled voters might vote for fringe candidates and the protest Vote could deny either of the big two the 50%+1

And then what?


The dreaded 2nd round will happen


And a winner will emerge and life goes on.Whoever will be ahead except for 50%+1 will still emerge the winner as his supporters will still be there and maybe gain a little more from the losers since people like being associated with the winners.

Who really dreads round 2?Its just that its an unnecessay extension of the political madness as well as the cost implication.


This assumption is very pedestrian Bigshick, have you factored in the voter turn out in round 1 and 2 both which can change the outcome of round 2?



Please explain the voter turnout effect.
I agree my being very pedestrian in the thoughts.


Let me drop some numbers here. These are the voter turnouts in Kenya since 1992.

1992(69%), 1997(65%), 2002(57%), 2007(69%), 2013 (85.9%).

Which counties caused this unusual turnout in 2013?

Siaya (92%), Kisumu (90%), homabay (94%), kiambu (91%), Nyeri (93%), nyadarua (94%), Kirinyaga (91%).

For perspective, Belgium where voting is mandatory by law averages 95% turnout.

Question is can these counties sustain the same abnormal turnouts ?

Why did people turnout in these unusually high numbers ?

Are we likely to see a return to the normal range of 65%-80% ?

The age of the register and how well it's linked to the civil registry and how updated it is in reflecting deaths and movements is also a determining factor in turnout!
All Mushrooms are edible! Some Mushroom are only edible ONCE!
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Bigchick
#14 Posted : Wednesday, March 01, 2017 4:51:41 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/8/2013
Posts: 4,068
Location: At Large.
Swenani wrote:
Bigchick wrote:
Swenani wrote:
Bigchick wrote:
kaka2za wrote:
thuks wrote:
kaka2za wrote:
Tired with Jubilee and not excited by NASA disgruntled voters might vote for fringe candidates and the protest Vote could deny either of the big two the 50%+1

And then what?


The dreaded 2nd round will happen


And a winner will emerge and life goes on.Whoever will be ahead except for 50%+1 will still emerge the winner as his supporters will still be there and maybe gain a little more from the losers since people like being associated with the winners.

Who really dreads round 2?Its just that its an unnecessay extension of the political madness as well as the cost implication.


This assumption is very pedestrian Bigshick, have you factored in the voter turn out in round 1 and 2 both which can change the outcome of round 2?



Please explain the voter turnout effect.
I agree my being very pedestrian in the thoughts.


If X wins with simple majority with an average 80% voter turnout in his/her strongholds while Y comes in second with an average turnout of 70% in their strongholds will X still win if s/he has an increased voter turnout to say 85% while Y has increased voter turnout of 83% in round 2, or if both average 99% voter turnout in round 2 will X still win?




Hiyo hesabu ya X and Y ni ngumu kidogo but I note you have assumed in Round 2 voter turnout will be higher in Y strongholds.

I beg to leave it at that as I may not be able to scientifically conclude.

Let me just say 8th August,2017 is some 150something days away and God willing tutakua hapa hapa
Love is beautiful and so are those who share it.With Love, Marriage is an amazing event in ones life time, the foundation of joy, happiness and success.
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Swenani
#15 Posted : Wednesday, March 01, 2017 4:56:02 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 8/15/2013
Posts: 13,237
Location: Vacuum
Bigchick wrote:
Swenani wrote:
Bigchick wrote:
Swenani wrote:
Bigchick wrote:
kaka2za wrote:
thuks wrote:
kaka2za wrote:
Tired with Jubilee and not excited by NASA disgruntled voters might vote for fringe candidates and the protest Vote could deny either of the big two the 50%+1

And then what?


The dreaded 2nd round will happen


And a winner will emerge and life goes on.Whoever will be ahead except for 50%+1 will still emerge the winner as his supporters will still be there and maybe gain a little more from the losers since people like being associated with the winners.

Who really dreads round 2?Its just that its an unnecessay extension of the political madness as well as the cost implication.


This assumption is very pedestrian Bigshick, have you factored in the voter turn out in round 1 and 2 both which can change the outcome of round 2?



Please explain the voter turnout effect.
I agree my being very pedestrian in the thoughts.


If X wins with simple majority with an average 80% voter turnout in his/her strongholds while Y comes in second with an average turnout of 70% in their strongholds will X still win if s/he has an increased voter turnout to say 85% while Y has increased voter turnout of 83% in round 2, or if both average 99% voter turnout in round 2 will X still win?




Hiyo hesabu ya X and Y ni ngumu kidogo but I note you have assumed in Round 2 voter turnout will be higher in Y strongholds.

I beg to leave it at that as I may not be able to scientifically conclude.

Let me just say 8th August,2017 is some 150something days away and God willing tutakua hapa hapa


You can use that example to either increase or decrease the voter turnout depending on the what will trigger either low or high voter turnout mentioned by @FMR2011
If Obiero did it, Who Am I?
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thuks
#16 Posted : Wednesday, March 01, 2017 5:16:07 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 10/8/2008
Posts: 1,575
kaka2za wrote:
thuks wrote:
kaka2za wrote:
Tired with Jubilee and not excited by NASA disgruntled voters might vote for fringe candidates and the protest Vote could deny either of the big two the 50%+1

And then what?


The dreaded 2nd round will happen

I thought vote was action, kumbe ilikuwa noun Laughing out loudly
I care!
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Coolio
#17 Posted : Wednesday, March 01, 2017 5:51:51 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/28/2008
Posts: 2,276
Location: Kibish
Can only happen if Kenyans can vote outside their tribal goggles!
Nadondosha meli kubwa seuze ngalawa!
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