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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Why is Greece still in the euro? No debt relief/cuts, no bailout, premiums on re-financing, overbearing and counter-productive austerity. https://www.wsj.com/arti...ther-bailout-1486508062 The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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This is happening before the fiery elections in France and Germany.
1 euro = 340.75 drachmas - before the drachma was replaced by the euro in January 2001.
They had a referendum in 2015 and rejected the Troika bailout terms. Greece will simply default and walk out of EU.
Brexit has already set the tone for the coming EU walkout chaos.
I still expect the euro to fall below parity vs the USD.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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hisah wrote:This is happening before the fiery elections in France and Germany.
1 euro = 340.75 drachmas - before the drachma was replaced by the euro in January 2001.
They had a referendum in 2015 and rejected the Troika bailout terms. Greece will simply default and walk out of EU.
Brexit has already set the tone for the coming EU walkout chaos.
I still expect the euro to fall below parity vs the USD.
With the benefit of hindsight, Troika scored an own goal by vetoing the against the outcome of the Greek referendum. By allowing Greece to have their way back in 2015 and possibly quit the euro/EU, Greece (a weakling) would have been the perfect example on the perils of isolationism. Greece as a failure outside of the EU/euro would have been the best deterrent for Brexit, Frexit, Italeave etc. However, as fate would have it Brexit (not easily cajoled or arm twisted) came before Grexit and now with everyone heading for the door a stampede is developing. Quote:He said: “They were only interested in crushing our government. Why? Only because they wanted to use this crushing of our government, of the Greek Spring, of the Athens Spring as a morality tale by which to frighten, to scare, Spaniards, Irish, Italian, and ultimately French voters from getting ideas that they can elect a government that will contest the powers of the Troika.” http://www.express.co.uk...aroufakis-greece-brexit
There is still a chance that Italy will call early elections possibly in June where it will be sandwiched by the French and German ones...the euro and EU are coming to their inevitable end if the scenario plays out in favor of euro skeptics in all three. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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From being the fastest growing economy @ circa 17% and home to one of the best stock market bull runs in recent years, Mongolia now stands on the precipice of a sovereign debt default. How quickly a success story can turn into a horror show courtesy of a debt binge. Quote:Public external debt mushroomed from about $2.5 billion, or 31% of GDP, at the end of 2010 to $8.5 billion, roughly 85% of estimated GDP, in 2016. http://asia.nikkei.com/m...es-make-or-break-moment
Not to mention that its currency the tugrik has depreciated by more than 100% over the same period. It joins the unenviable rank of Mozambique, Venezuela, Sri Lanka and Greece at the bottom of the sovereign debt barrel. Now it solely relies on the IMF for a bailout to dodge a default. http://www.bloomberg.com...owing-economy-went-bust
The chips are falling into place for the next mass default cycle. Nigeria had its bond oversubscribed by 780% with a recessionary economy. Investors were probably pricing in a permanent recovery in oil prices in their calculations...this will turn ugly in a hurry if oil plummets below the 2016 low. Yield chasers are still very bullish on junk/high yielding bonds despite the recent or imminent default incidents. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Some interesting but all the same expected stats. Shrinking of credit growth and unwinding of loan books. Quote:Treasury data indicate that lending to businesses and homes grew just 4.3 per cent in the year to December, down from 20.6 per cent in similar period in 2015. Quote:Additional loans to the private sector fell to Sh94.6 billion last year compared to Sh335 billion in 2015, prompting the Treasury to cut this year’s growth forecast. Quote:Contraction of credit to a number of sectors indicates that the loans repaid were more than the amount borrowed.
The 2016 credit growth is slower than that recorded in 2007/2008 tumultuous election period which recorded a low of 7.5 per cent. Quote:Some lenders have reported a dip in loan books for the three months between June and September.
Equity Bank, CFC and NIC reported contractions of their loans books despite high liquidity ratios. They are yet to report quarter four data. http://www.businessdaily...2602-ids3pkz/index.html
The correlation between this development and binge borrowing by GoK is fascinating. Almost a lockstep match. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,979
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Dow Jones at 21,000...What will break the bubble? Feds? "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/16/2009 Posts: 994
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murchr wrote:Dow Jones at 21,000...What will break the bubble? Feds? It is their time to eat. Meanwhile Trump's address to Congress included a statement that he will represent a $1T infrastructure bill. Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Gatheuzi wrote:murchr wrote:Dow Jones at 21,000...What will break the bubble? Feds? It is their time to eat. Meanwhile Trump's address to Congress included a statement that he will represent a $1T infrastructure bill. This is probably the most cautious/timid bull I have ever seen and it has been that way for 7/8 years. With limited retail participation and fund managers preferring to sit on cash rather than go all in, the pool of marginal buyers has been very small. Without a maniacal phase where a majority of investors think they can make a quick buck, this bull is set to continue. What will trigger the parabolic phase? That's the question for now. A mad rally is needed to rope in as many buyers as possible then it peters out and finally pops to trap the majority. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/23/2011 Posts: 304
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lochaz-index wrote:Gatheuzi wrote:murchr wrote:Dow Jones at 21,000...What will break the bubble? Feds? It is their time to eat. Meanwhile Trump's address to Congress included a statement that he will represent a $1T infrastructure bill. This is probably the most cautious/timid bull I have ever seen and it has been that way for 7/8 years. With limited retail participation and fund managers preferring to sit on cash rather than go all in, the pool of marginal buyers has been very small. Without a maniacal phase where a majority of investors think they can make a quick buck, this bull is set to continue. What will trigger the parabolic phase? That's the question for now. A mad rally is needed to rope in as many buyers as possible then it peters out and finally pops to trap the majority. The uptick in the march rate hike probability (now at 66%) has me very cautious. Dont think this has been priced in as yet. Bond yields have been very stable/flat over the last month as US stocks soar...  yet again after the near zero rates over the last 7 years i might just be overthinking it... You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/19/2009 Posts: 9
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Hi guys. Assume I have some 20M cash at bank which I need to invest. Bank can only give you 10% p/a maximum. Anyone with a good idea where I can invest to double the funds within a year with minimal or no risk. eg. any good NSE share with possibility of doubling, apex bodies, private equity etc. Kindly share
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/20/2015 Posts: 464 Location: Nairobi
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Wamukiva wrote:Hi guys. I have some 20M cash at bank which I need to invest. Bank can only give you 10% p/a maximum. Anyone with a good idea where I can invest to double the funds within a year with minimal or no risk. eg. any good NSE share with possibility of doubling, apex bodies, private equity etc. Kindly share Best advice is to continue doing whatever it is that you did to get that 20M
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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murchr wrote:Dow Jones at 21,000...What will break the bubble? Feds? A correction looms before higher highs. As long as euroland is weak the usd and us stocks will continue facing buy pressure.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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alutacontinua wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Gatheuzi wrote:murchr wrote:Dow Jones at 21,000...What will break the bubble? Feds? It is their time to eat. Meanwhile Trump's address to Congress included a statement that he will represent a $1T infrastructure bill. This is probably the most cautious/timid bull I have ever seen and it has been that way for 7/8 years. With limited retail participation and fund managers preferring to sit on cash rather than go all in, the pool of marginal buyers has been very small. Without a maniacal phase where a majority of investors think they can make a quick buck, this bull is set to continue. What will trigger the parabolic phase? That's the question for now. A mad rally is needed to rope in as many buyers as possible then it peters out and finally pops to trap the majority. The uptick in the march rate hike probability (now at 66%) has me very cautious. Dont think this has been priced in as yet. Bond yields have been very stable/flat over the last month as US stocks soar... yet again after the near zero rates over the last 7 years i might just be overthinking it... Any rate hike at this point is bound to pull the plug on Europe not US stocks. In fact, a hike would add gloss to the already attractive dollar assets(treasuries, stocks and the currency itself). Capital doesn't have many places to park...yield chasing/EM/FM assets is a no go zone, most of Europe is under NIRP plus not many solid hedging options exist to wait it out. Maybe piling into the bunds expecting a repricing in marks may pay out under the working theory that marks>euro>any other currency of a eurozone member. But even that is hopeful investing since it assumes that the euro zone weaklings won't default on their obligations in the euro arrangement and by extension Germany. I don't think any bond play at this moment in time is a smart move. That leaves US assets firmly in the driving seat against any competition. Besides, investors must get that last hurrah/wild ride before the music stops. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,979
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lochaz-index wrote:alutacontinua wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Gatheuzi wrote:murchr wrote:Dow Jones at 21,000...What will break the bubble? Feds? It is their time to eat. Meanwhile Trump's address to Congress included a statement that he will represent a $1T infrastructure bill. This is probably the most cautious/timid bull I have ever seen and it has been that way for 7/8 years. With limited retail participation and fund managers preferring to sit on cash rather than go all in, the pool of marginal buyers has been very small. Without a maniacal phase where a majority of investors think they can make a quick buck, this bull is set to continue. What will trigger the parabolic phase? That's the question for now. A mad rally is needed to rope in as many buyers as possible then it peters out and finally pops to trap the majority. The uptick in the march rate hike probability (now at 66%) has me very cautious. Dont think this has been priced in as yet. Bond yields have been very stable/flat over the last month as US stocks soar... yet again after the near zero rates over the last 7 years i might just be overthinking it... Any rate hike at this point is bound to pull the plug on Europe not US stocks. In fact, a hike would add gloss to the already attractive dollar assets(treasuries, stocks and the currency itself). Capital doesn't have many places to park...yield chasing/EM/FM assets is a no go zone, most of Europe is under NIRP plus not many solid hedging options exist to wait it out. Maybe piling into the bunds expecting a repricing in marks may pay out under the working theory that marks>euro>any other currency of a eurozone member. But even that is hopeful investing since it assumes that the euro zone weaklings won't default on their obligations in the euro arrangement and by extension Germany. I don't think any bond play at this moment in time is a smart move. That leaves US assets firmly in the driving seat against any competition. Besides, investors must get that last hurrah/wild ride before the music stops. What if they choose (feds) not to hike the rate? Europe is in trouble with elections and Brexit complications, capital is fleeing. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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murchr wrote:lochaz-index wrote:alutacontinua wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Gatheuzi wrote:murchr wrote:Dow Jones at 21,000...What will break the bubble? Feds? It is their time to eat. Meanwhile Trump's address to Congress included a statement that he will represent a $1T infrastructure bill. This is probably the most cautious/timid bull I have ever seen and it has been that way for 7/8 years. With limited retail participation and fund managers preferring to sit on cash rather than go all in, the pool of marginal buyers has been very small. Without a maniacal phase where a majority of investors think they can make a quick buck, this bull is set to continue. What will trigger the parabolic phase? That's the question for now. A mad rally is needed to rope in as many buyers as possible then it peters out and finally pops to trap the majority. The uptick in the march rate hike probability (now at 66%) has me very cautious. Dont think this has been priced in as yet. Bond yields have been very stable/flat over the last month as US stocks soar... yet again after the near zero rates over the last 7 years i might just be overthinking it... Any rate hike at this point is bound to pull the plug on Europe not US stocks. In fact, a hike would add gloss to the already attractive dollar assets(treasuries, stocks and the currency itself). Capital doesn't have many places to park...yield chasing/EM/FM assets is a no go zone, most of Europe is under NIRP plus not many solid hedging options exist to wait it out. Maybe piling into the bunds expecting a repricing in marks may pay out under the working theory that marks>euro>any other currency of a eurozone member. But even that is hopeful investing since it assumes that the euro zone weaklings won't default on their obligations in the euro arrangement and by extension Germany. I don't think any bond play at this moment in time is a smart move. That leaves US assets firmly in the driving seat against any competition. Besides, investors must get that last hurrah/wild ride before the music stops. What if they choose (feds) not to hike the rate? Europe is in trouble with elections and Brexit complications, capital is fleeing. All is set for a hike.This time round no postponement. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/23/2011 Posts: 304
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Fed Funds futures now pricing a 90% probability of a March Rate Hike...Asia session this morning is a sea of red... You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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murchr wrote:lochaz-index wrote:alutacontinua wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Gatheuzi wrote:murchr wrote:Dow Jones at 21,000...What will break the bubble? Feds? It is their time to eat. Meanwhile Trump's address to Congress included a statement that he will represent a $1T infrastructure bill. This is probably the most cautious/timid bull I have ever seen and it has been that way for 7/8 years. With limited retail participation and fund managers preferring to sit on cash rather than go all in, the pool of marginal buyers has been very small. Without a maniacal phase where a majority of investors think they can make a quick buck, this bull is set to continue. What will trigger the parabolic phase? That's the question for now. A mad rally is needed to rope in as many buyers as possible then it peters out and finally pops to trap the majority. The uptick in the march rate hike probability (now at 66%) has me very cautious. Dont think this has been priced in as yet. Bond yields have been very stable/flat over the last month as US stocks soar... yet again after the near zero rates over the last 7 years i might just be overthinking it... Any rate hike at this point is bound to pull the plug on Europe not US stocks. In fact, a hike would add gloss to the already attractive dollar assets(treasuries, stocks and the currency itself). Capital doesn't have many places to park...yield chasing/EM/FM assets is a no go zone, most of Europe is under NIRP plus not many solid hedging options exist to wait it out. Maybe piling into the bunds expecting a repricing in marks may pay out under the working theory that marks>euro>any other currency of a eurozone member. But even that is hopeful investing since it assumes that the euro zone weaklings won't default on their obligations in the euro arrangement and by extension Germany. I don't think any bond play at this moment in time is a smart move. That leaves US assets firmly in the driving seat against any competition. Besides, investors must get that last hurrah/wild ride before the music stops. What if they choose (feds) not to hike the rate? Europe is in trouble with elections and Brexit complications, capital is fleeing. Europe is toast either way, the only difference is that a hike quickens the euro/EU's demise by further underlining what is investment grade and what is junk. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/23/2011 Posts: 304
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alutacontinua wrote:Fed Funds futures now pricing a 90% probability of a March Rate Hike...Asia session this morning is a sea of red... ISM Feb Non-Manufacturing PMI comes in at 57.6 vs. Jan 56.5 going to be very hard for the Fed to hold off now... You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/23/2011 Posts: 304
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Interesting data out of China this morning... Exports drop -1.3% YoY in February vs. 14% expected while Imports are up +38.1% vs. 20% expected. China's economy slowly shifting from manufacturing to a service based economy... You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/9/2015 Posts: 233
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alutacontinua wrote:Interesting data out of China this morning...
Exports drop -1.3% YoY in February vs. 14% expected while Imports are up +38.1% vs. 20% expected.
China's economy slowly shifting from manufacturing to a service based economy... Not surprising. Chinese labour market has become real expensive. Manufacturers moving out to Vietnam etc "Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own."
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