When I look through the crystal glass,I see:
1) a likelihood of a market depressed further by effects of crop failure (famine) in most parts of Ukambani. govt and people will have to find money to feed families!
2) political uncertainty caused by the waki tribunal might keep away foreign investors planning to return; there might be a major fall out between Ruto/Mudavadi and RAO resulting in a split ODM and btw PNU/NARK-K resulting in Uhuru loosing his footing and fighting off catwoman from Kirinyaga. If big suspects r let off,the masses will react adversely. If they r not let off,they fall out. Knowing the way Kibaki lets things take their natural course - this will be an explosive yet uncontrolled nuclear experiment.
(3) reduced exports as the recession in Europe and USA sinks further (probably into mid-2010) and the green revolution is used by the West to set new protectionist standards in intl trade. stocks in export will be hit especially horticulture.
Importers will do very well esp of cars and machinery,as these are likely to benefit from indirect subsidies to make them affordable abroad (but these cuts might be reduced 4 kenya,by increasing insurance costs on shipping as caused by somali pirates.
It is in Kenya's interest to sent troops to the Somali coast,if not mainland,but this wont happen coz our naional strategic interests are well safeguarded by our perfect wait n see foreign policy!
4) govt will be forced to offload its stake in parastatals or more likely to borrow heavily to meet budget deficits,in the light of unmet donor pledges! thus,Watch T-Bills and Bonds. If this happens,the banks will be back in serious business and their shares will be a good bet.
5) Safaricom is key determinant of the nse index; twill remain below 5 most of the year -till abt june when fibre optics excite some speculators to buy at 6-6.50..then back to 5. it is unlikely to reach 7 until it be cross-listed in UG,TZ and J'Burg towards end of 2009 or early 2010.
7) There will be renewed interest in African resources (land,agricultural produce,metals,oil and gas resulting in a new scramble for Africa led by China and the Middle East. The west will remain leaders in technology and financial services and dictators of terms and standards of trade,as their other industries are not cost-competitive.
Desperate,corrupt or gullible leaders in Africa -myopic- (except Libya,SA and Uganda) will sell off. The scramble will put scarce resources -and thus wealth - in foreigners' hands resulting in increased FDIs & employment -in the short-term,but a long-term increase in capital flight resulting in long-term poverty on the balance!
I could go on but wont! But methinks only financial stocks in heavily capitalized banks are safe for 2009. The Mutomo cement resources will not be exploitable until 2010 so the cement co.s not much there... besides,building industry will slacken... looks like we r sliding back to the 90s.
am riding the recession with KCB for the next 2 yrs unless a reliable source informs me that exporters hold a good chunk of its loan portfolio. but,mefeels,foreign investors will inevitably come back to this Ai top index when liquidity finally edges upwards.
Pata-potea: insiders,seasoned speculators,experts on entry and exit points - like jammo - and early buyers like me,will make some 20% or more by Dec 2009 on a wing,soccer and a prayer. More by mid 2010.
NB: I am not an economic expert and these are just economic opinions of a layman. Do not take them to the bank.
When buying shares,ask yourself,would you buy the whole company?