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Eye on I&M ...
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,098 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:obiero wrote:dunkang wrote:mufasa wrote:obiero wrote:I&M has caught my eye.. My measurements tell me that its a steal at current price. with bond issuance for expansion into East Africa, the stock can only go up.. based on previous owners conditioning for super profits, I expect a swing upto high of KES 350 in about 1 year. Thank me later Thank You @obiero  am getting out tommorow. 350 is too far  . Still waiting 19/- for KQ. Still waiting....... Welcome @mufasa Hey @vvs.. KES 75 has printed Most banks have taken a hit. Unfortunately, I didn't think it would get this bad. Cash remains a constraint but I am split for choice. KK or I&M? Then there is steady & solid KenRe at 20. What to do? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,503 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:obiero wrote:dunkang wrote:mufasa wrote:obiero wrote:I&M has caught my eye.. My measurements tell me that its a steal at current price. with bond issuance for expansion into East Africa, the stock can only go up.. based on previous owners conditioning for super profits, I expect a swing upto high of KES 350 in about 1 year. Thank me later Thank You @obiero am getting out tommorow. 350 is too far . Still waiting 19/- for KQ. Still waiting....... Welcome @mufasa Hey @vvs.. KES 75 has printed Most banks have taken a hit. Unfortunately, I didn't think it would get this bad. Cash remains a constraint but I am split for choice. KK or I&M? Then there is steady & solid KenRe at 20. What to do? Sorry for the massive loss of capital.. It happens to the best of us.. I humbly besiege you to offload the I&M shares before results are released.. This one will trade at KES 61 and below by mid next month
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:obiero wrote:dunkang wrote:mufasa wrote:obiero wrote:I&M has caught my eye.. My measurements tell me that its a steal at current price. with bond issuance for expansion into East Africa, the stock can only go up.. based on previous owners conditioning for super profits, I expect a swing upto high of KES 350 in about 1 year. Thank me later Thank You @obiero am getting out tommorow. 350 is too far . Still waiting 19/- for KQ. Still waiting....... Welcome @mufasa Hey @vvs.. KES 75 has printed Most banks have taken a hit. Unfortunately, I didn't think it would get this bad. Cash remains a constraint but I am split for choice. KK or I&M? Then there is steady & solid KenRe at 20. What to do? Sorry for the massive loss of capital.. It happens to the best of us.. I humbly besiege you to offload the I&M shares before results are released.. This one will trade at KES 61 and below by mid next month Iko nini Obiero what happened to I&M. Ama it has become a bandia company.I Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,503 Location: nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:obiero wrote:dunkang wrote:mufasa wrote:obiero wrote:I&M has caught my eye.. My measurements tell me that its a steal at current price. with bond issuance for expansion into East Africa, the stock can only go up.. based on previous owners conditioning for super profits, I expect a swing upto high of KES 350 in about 1 year. Thank me later Thank You @obiero am getting out tommorow. 350 is too far . Still waiting 19/- for KQ. Still waiting....... Welcome @mufasa Hey @vvs.. KES 75 has printed Most banks have taken a hit. Unfortunately, I didn't think it would get this bad. Cash remains a constraint but I am split for choice. KK or I&M? Then there is steady & solid KenRe at 20. What to do? Sorry for the massive loss of capital.. It happens to the best of us.. I humbly besiege you to offload the I&M shares before results are released.. This one will trade at KES 61 and below by mid next month Iko nini Obiero what happened to I&M. Ama it has become a bandia company.I @Ericsson sadly.. a BANDIA bank.. I speak in code
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,098 Location: Nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:obiero wrote:dunkang wrote:mufasa wrote:obiero wrote:I&M has caught my eye.. My measurements tell me that its a steal at current price. with bond issuance for expansion into East Africa, the stock can only go up.. based on previous owners conditioning for super profits, I expect a swing upto high of KES 350 in about 1 year. Thank me later Thank You @obiero am getting out tommorow. 350 is too far . Still waiting 19/- for KQ. Still waiting....... Welcome @mufasa Hey @vvs.. KES 75 has printed Most banks have taken a hit. Unfortunately, I didn't think it would get this bad. Cash remains a constraint but I am split for choice. KK or I&M? Then there is steady & solid KenRe at 20. What to do? LMAO... According to @Obiero all firms I invest in are bandia coz they are profitable  Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,098 Location: Nairobi
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My Thoughts on I&M in 2017... in a new thread Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,503 Location: nairobi
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obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:My (hurried) analysis. (Sensible) Input required so we know whose views are not needed.
PAT 1H 2016 [excl Mauritius and Rwanda] 3,483mn [Line 14 of KE (incl TZ) results per the published results]
EPS 8.85 [based on 393mn shares. No idea how many ESOP shares are out there]
If I&M can manage just 75% of the 1H in 2H [3Q under the current interest regime and then 4Q under the lower interest regime] = 8.88 x 1.75 = EPS 15.54/share
Add RW + Mauritius for EPS of 1.46 attributable to I&M Holdings so 15.54 + 1.46 = 17/- EPS
I expect more from RW + Mauritius coz MU is quite profitable for them.
At 96.50 that's 5.67 PER for FY 2016.
NAV [KE+TZ] is 29,165mn = NAV/Share = 74 [Then there's MU + RW]. That's PB of 1.30
@Aguy @kausha @Wazuans [except you know who] am I missing something?
You are missing common sense brother. Uza hii nyani This what is called fat tails. With new interest cap. What will be eps be in FY 2017 estimate? That's the real question A question I have been giving a lot of thought. My take [and feel free to poke holes]... 1) Who are I&M BORROWING customers? Folks who primarily [except some credit cards, etc] have loans that have been secured which helps manage defaults thus a slimmer NIM isn't a death knell. 2) Who are I&M DEPOSIT customers? Folks who can negotiate higher rates for FDRs so paying 70% of CBR/KBRR isn't unheard of. What will I&M do with the low-balance savings accounts? Close them? Raise the minimum balances? 3) Tech will become a bigger part of I&M's "outreach" by slowing down branch expansion/visits. That's a given given the advances in mobile tech and increased/cheaper internet availability. 4) Expand overseas. There's Mauritius [mature market but scope for organic growth], Rwanda [a small but growing market] and Tanzania [let's leave that alone!]. Plus there is a chance to buy into Uganda. Use Mauritius as a launching pad for expansion into other (underbanked) African countries. At the "right" price, I think it makes lots of sense [to me] to add more shares t my holdings. Let's say the EPS drops to 10/-(for 2017) then the PER is still 9 which isn't too bad. [No, I will not defend I&M like he-who-defends-KQ come rain and more rain] My dearest brother.. This one will kill you. Trouble is you can't even exit coz it's close knit shareholding structure. Here EPS, PER, NPL or any other ratio will be a waste of brain cells, just consider yourself screwed.. Pole Then let this be my KQ ... Waiting for Monday and I hope it gets cheaper coz I want to buy! Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down - Warren Buffett
To each his own.. I wish you all the best brother Despite my best wishes.. This has happened to I&M http://www.businessdaily...50374-9dqdorz/index.html
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,098 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:obiero wrote:[quote=VituVingiSana]My (hurried) analysis. (Sensible) Input required so we know whose views are not needed.
PAT 1H 2016 [excl Mauritius and Rwanda] 3,483mn [Line 14 of KE (incl TZ) results per the published results]
EPS 8.85 [based on 393mn shares. No idea how many ESOP shares are out there]
If I&M can manage just 75% of the 1H in 2H [3Q under the current interest regime and then 4Q under the lower interest regime] = 8.88 x 1.75 = EPS 15.54/share
Add RW + Mauritius for EPS of 1.46 attributable to I&M Holdings so 15.54 + 1.46 = 17/- EPS
I expect more from RW + Mauritius coz MU is quite profitable for them.
At 96.50 that's 5.67 PER for FY 2016.
NAV [KE+TZ] is 29,165mn = NAV/Share = 74 [Then there's MU + RW]. That's PB of 1.30
@Aguy @kausha @Wazuans [except you know who] am I missing something?
You are missing common sense brother. Uza hii nyani This what is called fat tails. With new interest cap. What will be eps be in FY 2017 estimate? That's the real question A question I have been giving a lot of thought. My take [and feel free to poke holes]... 1) Who are I&M BORROWING customers? Folks who primarily [except some credit cards, etc] have loans that have been secured which helps manage defaults thus a slimmer NIM isn't a death knell. 2) Who are I&M DEPOSIT customers? Folks who can negotiate higher rates for FDRs so paying 70% of CBR/KBRR isn't unheard of. What will I&M do with the low-balance savings accounts? Close them? Raise the minimum balances? 3) Tech will become a bigger part of I&M's "outreach" by slowing down branch expansion/visits. That's a given given the advances in mobile tech and increased/cheaper internet availability. 4) Expand overseas. There's Mauritius [mature market but scope for organic growth], Rwanda [a small but growing market] and Tanzania [let's leave that alone!]. Plus there is a chance to buy into Uganda. Use Mauritius as a launching pad for expansion into other (underbanked) African countries. At the "right" price, I think it makes lots of sense [to me] to add more shares t my holdings. Let's say the EPS drops to 10/-(for 2017) then the PER is still 9 which isn't too bad. [No, I will not defend I&M like he-who-defends-KQ come rain and more rain] My dearest brother.. This one will kill you. Trouble is you can't even exit coz it's close knit shareholding structure. Here EPS, PER, NPL or any other ratio will be a waste of brain cells, just consider yourself screwed.. Pole Then let this be my KQ ... Waiting for Monday and I hope it gets cheaper coz I want to buy! Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down - Warren Buffett
To each his own.. I wish you all the best brother Despite my best wishes.. This has happened to I&M http://www.businessdaily...0374-9dqdorz/index.html[/quote] A plus for I&M. All is good. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,503 Location: nairobi
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Results are out.. Profits heavily down. 414m issued shares is the only thing holding it up.. Due to low liquidity manipulation of price is easy. Hii ndio baba ya nyani banks
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,098 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:Results are out.. Profits heavily down. 414m issued shares is the only thing holding it up.. Due to low liquidity manipulation of price is easy. Hii ndio baba ya nyani banks So it's still profitable unlike KQ? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,503 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:Results are out.. Profits heavily down. 414m issued shares is the only thing holding it up.. Due to low liquidity manipulation of price is easy. Hii ndio baba ya nyani banks So it's still profitable unlike KQ? Use that line extensively now cause in the next six months you will use it no more as KQ will turn in a profit in its H1
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,503 Location: nairobi
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obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:Results are out.. Profits heavily down. 414m issued shares is the only thing holding it up.. Due to low liquidity manipulation of price is easy. Hii ndio baba ya nyani banks So it's still profitable unlike KQ? Use that line extensively now cause in the next six months you will use it no more as KQ will turn in a profit in its H1 Good morning @vvs
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,098 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:Results are out.. Profits heavily down. 414m issued shares is the only thing holding it up.. Due to low liquidity manipulation of price is easy. Hii ndio baba ya nyani banks So it's still profitable unlike KQ? Use that line extensively now cause in the next six months you will use it no more as KQ will turn in a profit in its H1 Well, how did KQ do between Jul 2017 - Dec 2018? And It's highly unlikely that KQ will make more (PBT) than I&M in FY (Jan-Dec) 2018. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,503 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:Results are out.. Profits heavily down. 414m issued shares is the only thing holding it up.. Due to low liquidity manipulation of price is easy. Hii ndio baba ya nyani banks So it's still profitable unlike KQ? Use that line extensively now cause in the next six months you will use it no more as KQ will turn in a profit in its H1 Well, how did KQ do between Jul 2017 - Dec 2018? And It's highly unlikely that KQ will make more (PBT) than I&M in FY (Jan-Dec) 2018. Hehe. Sasa wewe wacha comparisons bwana @vvs.. A profit is a profit considering the circumstances
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,098 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:Results are out.. Profits heavily down. 414m issued shares is the only thing holding it up.. Due to low liquidity manipulation of price is easy. Hii ndio baba ya nyani banks So it's still profitable unlike KQ? Use that line extensively now cause in the next six months you will use it no more as KQ will turn in a profit in its H1 Well, how did KQ do between Jul 2017 - Dec 2018? And It's highly unlikely that KQ will make more (PBT) than I&M in FY (Jan-Dec) 2018. Hehe. Sasa wewe wacha comparisons bwana @vvs.. A profit is a profit considering the circumstances Good luck. I want KQ to succeed. If I understood the restructuring, I&M now holds shares in KQ via KQLC and has loans to KQ. I hope these loans are paid off and the shares can be sold. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,503 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:Results are out.. Profits heavily down. 414m issued shares is the only thing holding it up.. Due to low liquidity manipulation of price is easy. Hii ndio baba ya nyani banks So it's still profitable unlike KQ? Use that line extensively now cause in the next six months you will use it no more as KQ will turn in a profit in its H1 Well, how did KQ do between Jul 2017 - Dec 2018? And It's highly unlikely that KQ will make more (PBT) than I&M in FY (Jan-Dec) 2018. Hehe. Sasa wewe wacha comparisons bwana @vvs.. A profit is a profit considering the circumstances Good luck. I want KQ to succeed. If I understood the restructuring, I&M now holds shares in KQ via KQLC and has loans to KQ. I hope these loans are paid off and the shares can be sold. National Bank of Kenya, Co-operative Bank, CBA, NIC Bank, DTB KCB, I&M, Ecobank, JBB, Equity and Chase Bank, are collectively owed Sh26 billion by KQ, under KQLC representing 38% shareholding
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,098 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:Results are out.. Profits heavily down. 414m issued shares is the only thing holding it up.. Due to low liquidity manipulation of price is easy. Hii ndio baba ya nyani banks So it's still profitable unlike KQ? Use that line extensively now cause in the next six months you will use it no more as KQ will turn in a profit in its H1 Well, how did KQ do between Jul 2017 - Dec 2018? And It's highly unlikely that KQ will make more (PBT) than I&M in FY (Jan-Dec) 2018. Hehe. Sasa wewe wacha comparisons bwana @vvs.. A profit is a profit considering the circumstances Good luck. I want KQ to succeed. If I understood the restructuring, I&M now holds shares in KQ via KQLC and has loans to KQ. I hope these loans are paid off and the shares can be sold. National Bank of Kenya, Co-operative Bank, CBA, NIC Bank, DTB KCB, I&M, Ecobank, JBB, Equity and Chase Bank, are collectively owed Sh26 billion by KQ, under KQLC representing 38% shareholding Except for the debt to equity conversion [didn't JBB back out?], doesn't each bank still have outstanding loans to KQ? Wasn't each bank expected to loan additional funds to KQ? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,503 Location: nairobi
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At 14.2% NPL being highest in tier 1 banks.. I am worried about I&M
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,098 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:At 14.2% NPL being highest in tier 1 banks.. I am worried about I&M Do not be. I&M will be OK. I think KQ might have been part of the problem. Prudence means a non-performing loan or a loan to a borrower in distress should be NPL'd. Expect reversals of NPLs in 3Q 2018 as recoveries are made and loans restructured. I think there is a 6-month waiting period before the accounts can be reinstated as "performing" after they start performing. NIC took a huge hit 2-3 years ago. Prudence. As recoveries happen these are reversed. The same with I&M... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,684 Location: NAIROBI
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obiero wrote:At 14.2% NPL being highest in tier 1 banks.. I am worried about I&M Most of it is loans to fellow Indian companies. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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