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Uhuru versus Raila 2017
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/8/2013 Posts: 4,068 Location: At Large.
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kaka2za wrote:maka wrote:Shotgun wrote:Using today's IEBC data and assuming ; *Similar Voter Turnout as 2013 (Av.86%) *Similar Voting Pattern as 2013 *Similar Invalid Votes cast as 2013 (0.9%) *The 210K votes garned by Karua,Dinda,Kiyapi,Muite,PK still remain under Others. Findings according to my goggles* Uhuru Kenyatta fails to meet 50%+1 against Others (All Other Candidates + Invalid Votes) * Uhuru Kenyatta meets the 50%+1 against Others (All Other Candidates - Invalid Votes) - This is the calculation upheld by the SCOK.* Uhuru Kenyatta's main challenger is 50%+1 and not NASA. * Tyranny of numbers still exist. IEBC DATAIEBC Data as at 31st JanDisclaimer: Yes, you guessed right, I am Jubilated!  Now you can use the data and using your goggles too, create your own scenarios as you believe them; where has the ground changed, who will experience voter apathy, who has more dead voters in their stronghold, whose potential voters will be knocked off by the pending Register Audit, who will turn the tables in the last 2 weeks of MVR II....etc If we have another 5 years of Jubilee we will have no country....bure kabisa This will be most likely scenario in the first round of voting. 1.UMK....... 45% 2.RAO........36% 3.Watermelon..17% 4. Others......2% Wild guess ama? Love is beautiful and so are those who share it.With Love, Marriage is an amazing event in ones life time, the foundation of joy, happiness and success.
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/15/2015 Posts: 817
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again kiambu never disappoints in voter registration.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/21/2008 Posts: 2,490
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kaka2za wrote:maka wrote:Shotgun wrote:Using today's IEBC data and assuming ; *Similar Voter Turnout as 2013 (Av.86%) *Similar Voting Pattern as 2013 *Similar Invalid Votes cast as 2013 (0.9%) *The 210K votes garned by Karua,Dinda,Kiyapi,Muite,PK still remain under Others. Findings according to my goggles* Uhuru Kenyatta fails to meet 50%+1 against Others (All Other Candidates + Invalid Votes) * Uhuru Kenyatta meets the 50%+1 against Others (All Other Candidates - Invalid Votes) - This is the calculation upheld by the SCOK.* Uhuru Kenyatta's main challenger is 50%+1 and not NASA. * Tyranny of numbers still exist. IEBC DATAIEBC Data as at 31st JanDisclaimer: Yes, you guessed right, I am Jubilated! Now you can use the data and using your goggles too, create your own scenarios as you believe them; where has the ground changed, who will experience voter apathy, who has more dead voters in their stronghold, whose potential voters will be knocked off by the pending Register Audit, who will turn the tables in the last 2 weeks of MVR II....etc If we have another 5 years of Jubilee we will have no country....bure kabisa This will be most likely scenario in the first round of voting. 1.UMK....... 45% 2.RAO........36% 3.Watermelon..17%4. Others......2% 17%???? Not a chance The man who marries a beautiful woman, and the farmer who grows corn by the roadside have the same problem
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/17/2009 Posts: 2,040 Location: GA
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Cornelius Vanderbilt wrote:again kiambu never disappoints in voter registration. If the trend continues it might have equal number of registered voters with the entire western counties combined.But the million dollar question why the apathy in CORD strongholds a place like siaya is doing 20% na Hapa ndio nyumbani kwa baba what will they do to make wananchi to come out and register that they have not done in the last 2 weeks.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/3/2008 Posts: 4,058 Location: Gwitu
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Bigchick wrote:kaka2za wrote:maka wrote:Shotgun wrote:Using today's IEBC data and assuming ; *Similar Voter Turnout as 2013 (Av.86%) *Similar Voting Pattern as 2013 *Similar Invalid Votes cast as 2013 (0.9%) *The 210K votes garned by Karua,Dinda,Kiyapi,Muite,PK still remain under Others. Findings according to my goggles* Uhuru Kenyatta fails to meet 50%+1 against Others (All Other Candidates + Invalid Votes) * Uhuru Kenyatta meets the 50%+1 against Others (All Other Candidates - Invalid Votes) - This is the calculation upheld by the SCOK.* Uhuru Kenyatta's main challenger is 50%+1 and not NASA. * Tyranny of numbers still exist. IEBC DATAIEBC Data as at 31st JanDisclaimer: Yes, you guessed right, I am Jubilated! Now you can use the data and using your goggles too, create your own scenarios as you believe them; where has the ground changed, who will experience voter apathy, who has more dead voters in their stronghold, whose potential voters will be knocked off by the pending Register Audit, who will turn the tables in the last 2 weeks of MVR II....etc If we have another 5 years of Jubilee we will have no country....bure kabisa This will be most likely scenario in the first round of voting. 1.UMK....... 45% 2.RAO........36% 3.Watermelon..17% 4. Others......2% Wild guess ama? According to our local Mundu-mugo Truth forever on the scaffold
Wrong forever on the throne
(James Russell Rowell)
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/18/2011 Posts: 12,069 Location: Kianjokoma
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madollar wrote:Cornelius Vanderbilt wrote:again kiambu never disappoints in voter registration. If the trend continues it might have equal number of registered voters with the entire western counties combined.But the million dollar question why the apathy in CORD strongholds a place like siaya is doing 20% na Hapa ndio nyumbani kwa baba what will they do to make wananchi to come out and register that they have not done in the last 2 weeks. They are getting tired or giving up. You vote a guy thrice yet he doesn't get the big seat.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/7/2007 Posts: 11,935 Location: Nairobi
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ZZE123 wrote:kaka2za wrote:[quote=maka][quote=Shotgun]
This will be most likely scenario in the first round of voting.
1.UMK....... 45%
2.RAO........36%
[b]3.Watermelon..17%
4. Others......2% 17%???? Not a chance ShotGun is devastated and very sorry. He meant 1 point 7 (1.7% for Salome Kalonzo) Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/8/2013 Posts: 4,068 Location: At Large.
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madollar wrote:Cornelius Vanderbilt wrote:again kiambu never disappoints in voter registration. If the trend continues it might have equal number of registered voters with the entire western counties combined.But the million dollar question why the apathy in CORD strongholds a place like siaya is doing 20% na Hapa ndio nyumbani kwa baba what will they do to make wananchi to come out and register that they have not done in the last 2 weeks. Babas chorus of imeiibiwa tayari gives them little hope.So they do not see the need to register and voter turnout will be worse. Baba should look to give people hope not cry baby stories everyday. Another issue could be the pressing issue of hunger/drought. Lastly a hypothsis..."the people of Siaya are tired of voting for a perenial loser"It emotionally drains them.Remember that guy who cried on National TV and said Ata Siaya/ Kisumu si Kenya.So they will not register and will not vote. Love is beautiful and so are those who share it.With Love, Marriage is an amazing event in ones life time, the foundation of joy, happiness and success.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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My guess:
Some of Rao's followers believed his story....that the election is already rigged as it has been done previously.... and it's hard for him to win.... So why bother registering as a voter?
That's why Raila's message recently has been.... "we now have a system that will ensure no rigging takes place".... trying to give assurance so that people from his strongholds can register as voters.
But this message is coming too late in the day when many people are convinced....it is rigged and will always be rigged.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/9/2007 Posts: 13,095
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Njung'e wrote:ZZE123 wrote:kaka2za wrote:[quote=maka][quote=Shotgun]
This will be most likely scenario in the first round of voting.
1.UMK....... 45%
2.RAO........36%
[b]3.Watermelon..17%
4. Others......2% 17%???? Not a chance ShotGun is devastated and very sorry. He meant 1 point 7 (1.7% for Salome Kalonzo) Lol...ati SALOME?
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