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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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Angelica _ann wrote:Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:NSE20 closes at 2855. YTD 10.39% in the red i.e. 17 trading days since the year begun!!! This is what happens when you break below a critical psychological level. Despondence phase indeed.  A 20% dip will see the index test 2546. This bear is no joke, looks like the slow unsure bear is gone. The gloves are off. Those fat tails grow fatter every day Except Jubilee, BAT, Unga and Bamburi holding their forte. Safaricon might just bring the desired panic  Safcom, the green monster that grew wings    ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Liv wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Liv wrote:lochaz-index wrote:
Yours is a most interesting perspective/view of the happenings in KE, I'll grant you that. For the record, 9/11 happened before the dotcom crash of 2001 not the 2008 GFC. However, the litmus test here is a cause and/or correlation analysis. Correlation is not causation. Some are purely happenstance and in some instances direct relationships flip back and forth into inverse ones. However, it is true that many factors feed the makings of a bull or bear run.
In the case of the US in 2001, I think 9/11 was the trigger(especially on the psychological construct of market participants - mainly retail) not the cause of the crash. Similarly KE has had a bad brush with terrorism since 2011 but the market still had a healthy run from 2012 to 2014 inspite of the bombings. I am not discounting the impact of terrorism but market psche was not fundamentally altered. In both cases, the scale of terrorism falls in the correlation department rather than causation. Upped an ante to a level where investors are downright fearful not only for the well being of the market but also of themselves (civil war kind of scenario) then terrorism would quickly change columns into the causation department.
On the mild recovery of the KE economy in 2016, I disagree. KE has been on a slow but sure grind since 2014 and the worse our debt position becomes the more pronounced KE's problems will become. I am not well versed with TA and the accompanying double bottom calls but there has simply been no economic tail-wind to fan an NSE recovery.
Fact: The dot com crisis started in March 2000 and 911 happened in sept 2001. However that was not my point. When 911 happened the decisions that were made as a result have affected the US economy todate. There are papers written on how 911 has affected their economy as the debt levels rose significantly due to war. The government could not respond effectively to avert or reduce the effects of the 2008 crisis due to that fact.
In our case the 2013 westgate attack and the threats & false alarms that came thereafter brought real fear to the investors. Tourism was brought down to its knees and many would be investors shelved their plans on Kenya. The small terror attacks before 2013 were mostly out of nairobi and did not have much effect. My view is that the terror that was experienced in nairobi, real or imagined between 2013 and early 2015 affected the psyche of investors and resulted in causal (not correlation) adverse effect on the economy and the bear got legs at NSE.
True, the dotcom crash started earlier than 9/11 and crashed 777 points on the material day leading to closure of the market if I remember correctly. As for the US being handicapped by the war on terrorism in combating the vagaries of the 2008 GFC, that is a classic case of the culprit playing victim. 2016 was a relatively uneventful year for KE on the terrorism front yet the market it still dumped 1000 points - with the bulk of the losses coming in H2(post brexit). The losses were almost evenly split between the pre and post interest caps periods. Fast forward to post August, assuming a peaceful election and the market does not respond positively what will you attribute it to?
Safe for other factors coming to play.....I am very confident that if we go through elections successfully without chaos like 2007/8, the economy will look up and NSE bull will come to town. I am investing based on those premises. What do you expect to happen? I think the economy will continue to stall in 2017 and 2018 and that is assuming we get our act together on time, if not then the bear extends its rampage. The NSE trend has dovetailed with the economy and short of a decoupling event, that will remain so for the near-term. Maybe I am just a contrarian by discounting the impact of the election, but its twist and turns (whether peaceful or not) do not worry me...I expect the bear run to continue regardless. Working theory here being sub 2000. I have been a buyer and will continue doing so. My only limitation being availability of cash. The target/course of action remains the same; spot value and buy. Buying pegged on hopes of an immediate bull will leave many investors disillusioned. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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lochaz-index wrote:Liv wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Liv wrote:lochaz-index wrote:
Yours is a most interesting perspective/view of the happenings in KE, I'll grant you that. For the record, 9/11 happened before the dotcom crash of 2001 not the 2008 GFC. However, the litmus test here is a cause and/or correlation analysis. Correlation is not causation. Some are purely happenstance and in some instances direct relationships flip back and forth into inverse ones. However, it is true that many factors feed the makings of a bull or bear run.
In the case of the US in 2001, I think 9/11 was the trigger(especially on the psychological construct of market participants - mainly retail) not the cause of the crash. Similarly KE has had a bad brush with terrorism since 2011 but the market still had a healthy run from 2012 to 2014 inspite of the bombings. I am not discounting the impact of terrorism but market psche was not fundamentally altered. In both cases, the scale of terrorism falls in the correlation department rather than causation. Upped an ante to a level where investors are downright fearful not only for the well being of the market but also of themselves (civil war kind of scenario) then terrorism would quickly change columns into the causation department.
On the mild recovery of the KE economy in 2016, I disagree. KE has been on a slow but sure grind since 2014 and the worse our debt position becomes the more pronounced KE's problems will become. I am not well versed with TA and the accompanying double bottom calls but there has simply been no economic tail-wind to fan an NSE recovery.
Fact: The dot com crisis started in March 2000 and 911 happened in sept 2001. However that was not my point. When 911 happened the decisions that were made as a result have affected the US economy todate. There are papers written on how 911 has affected their economy as the debt levels rose significantly due to war. The government could not respond effectively to avert or reduce the effects of the 2008 crisis due to that fact.
In our case the 2013 westgate attack and the threats & false alarms that came thereafter brought real fear to the investors. Tourism was brought down to its knees and many would be investors shelved their plans on Kenya. The small terror attacks before 2013 were mostly out of nairobi and did not have much effect. My view is that the terror that was experienced in nairobi, real or imagined between 2013 and early 2015 affected the psyche of investors and resulted in causal (not correlation) adverse effect on the economy and the bear got legs at NSE.
True, the dotcom crash started earlier than 9/11 and crashed 777 points on the material day leading to closure of the market if I remember correctly. As for the US being handicapped by the war on terrorism in combating the vagaries of the 2008 GFC, that is a classic case of the culprit playing victim. 2016 was a relatively uneventful year for KE on the terrorism front yet the market it still dumped 1000 points - with the bulk of the losses coming in H2(post brexit). The losses were almost evenly split between the pre and post interest caps periods. Fast forward to post August, assuming a peaceful election and the market does not respond positively what will you attribute it to?
Safe for other factors coming to play.....I am very confident that if we go through elections successfully without chaos like 2007/8, the economy will look up and NSE bull will come to town. I am investing based on those premises. What do you expect to happen? I think the economy will continue to stall in 2017 and 2018 and that is assuming we get our act together on time, if not then the bear extends its rampage. The NSE trend has dovetailed with the economy and short of a decoupling event, that will remain so for the near-term. Maybe I am just a contrarian by discounting the impact of the election, but its twist and turns (whether peaceful or not) do not worry me...I expect the bear run to continue regardless. Working theory here being sub 2000. I have been a buyer and will continue doing so. My only limitation being availability of cash. The target/course of action remains the same; spot value and buy. Buying pegged on hopes of an immediate bull will leave many investors disillusioned. 2017 is the year of difficult Keynesian classical economics. Balancing between drought, dry river beds threatening hydro power generation, kplc and kengen counters in red, balancing between arap mashamba and the tortuous electioneering, mitigating stronger dollars and costly petrol. Even steel balls will fail on this one, better dump steel and get titanium balls to navigate the perilous curves ahead. ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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muandiwambeu wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Liv wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Liv wrote:lochaz-index wrote:
Yours is a most interesting perspective/view of the happenings in KE, I'll grant you that. For the record, 9/11 happened before the dotcom crash of 2001 not the 2008 GFC. However, the litmus test here is a cause and/or correlation analysis. Correlation is not causation. Some are purely happenstance and in some instances direct relationships flip back and forth into inverse ones. However, it is true that many factors feed the makings of a bull or bear run.
In the case of the US in 2001, I think 9/11 was the trigger(especially on the psychological construct of market participants - mainly retail) not the cause of the crash. Similarly KE has had a bad brush with terrorism since 2011 but the market still had a healthy run from 2012 to 2014 inspite of the bombings. I am not discounting the impact of terrorism but market psche was not fundamentally altered. In both cases, the scale of terrorism falls in the correlation department rather than causation. Upped an ante to a level where investors are downright fearful not only for the well being of the market but also of themselves (civil war kind of scenario) then terrorism would quickly change columns into the causation department.
On the mild recovery of the KE economy in 2016, I disagree. KE has been on a slow but sure grind since 2014 and the worse our debt position becomes the more pronounced KE's problems will become. I am not well versed with TA and the accompanying double bottom calls but there has simply been no economic tail-wind to fan an NSE recovery.
Fact: The dot com crisis started in March 2000 and 911 happened in sept 2001. However that was not my point. When 911 happened the decisions that were made as a result have affected the US economy todate. There are papers written on how 911 has affected their economy as the debt levels rose significantly due to war. The government could not respond effectively to avert or reduce the effects of the 2008 crisis due to that fact.
In our case the 2013 westgate attack and the threats & false alarms that came thereafter brought real fear to the investors. Tourism was brought down to its knees and many would be investors shelved their plans on Kenya. The small terror attacks before 2013 were mostly out of nairobi and did not have much effect. My view is that the terror that was experienced in nairobi, real or imagined between 2013 and early 2015 affected the psyche of investors and resulted in causal (not correlation) adverse effect on the economy and the bear got legs at NSE.
True, the dotcom crash started earlier than 9/11 and crashed 777 points on the material day leading to closure of the market if I remember correctly. As for the US being handicapped by the war on terrorism in combating the vagaries of the 2008 GFC, that is a classic case of the culprit playing victim. 2016 was a relatively uneventful year for KE on the terrorism front yet the market it still dumped 1000 points - with the bulk of the losses coming in H2(post brexit). The losses were almost evenly split between the pre and post interest caps periods. Fast forward to post August, assuming a peaceful election and the market does not respond positively what will you attribute it to?
Safe for other factors coming to play.....I am very confident that if we go through elections successfully without chaos like 2007/8, the economy will look up and NSE bull will come to town. I am investing based on those premises. What do you expect to happen? I think the economy will continue to stall in 2017 and 2018 and that is assuming we get our act together on time, if not then the bear extends its rampage. The NSE trend has dovetailed with the economy and short of a decoupling event, that will remain so for the near-term. Maybe I am just a contrarian by discounting the impact of the election, but its twist and turns (whether peaceful or not) do not worry me...I expect the bear run to continue regardless. Working theory here being sub 2000. I have been a buyer and will continue doing so. My only limitation being availability of cash. The target/course of action remains the same; spot value and buy. Buying pegged on hopes of an immediate bull will leave many investors disillusioned. 2017 is the year of difficult Keynesian classical economics. Balancing between drought, dry river beds threatening hydro power generation, kplc and kengen counters in red, balancing between arap mashamba and the tortuous electioneering, mitigating stronger dollars and costly petrol. Even steel balls will fail on this one, better dump steel and get titanium balls to navigate the perilous curves ahead. A friend said to me, "Hey you need to grow a pair. Grow a pair, Bro." It's when someone calls you weak, but they associate it with a lack of testicles. Which is weird, because testicles are the most sensitive things in the world. If you suddenly just grew a pair, you'd be a lot more vulnerable. If you want to be tough, you should lose a pair. If you want to be real tough, you should grow a vagina. Those things can take a pounding ....Sheng Wang Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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sparkly wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Liv wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Liv wrote:lochaz-index wrote:
Yours is a most interesting perspective/view of the happenings in KE, I'll grant you that. For the record, 9/11 happened before the dotcom crash of 2001 not the 2008 GFC. However, the litmus test here is a cause and/or correlation analysis. Correlation is not causation. Some are purely happenstance and in some instances direct relationships flip back and forth into inverse ones. However, it is true that many factors feed the makings of a bull or bear run.
In the case of the US in 2001, I think 9/11 was the trigger(especially on the psychological construct of market participants - mainly retail) not the cause of the crash. Similarly KE has had a bad brush with terrorism since 2011 but the market still had a healthy run from 2012 to 2014 inspite of the bombings. I am not discounting the impact of terrorism but market psche was not fundamentally altered. In both cases, the scale of terrorism falls in the correlation department rather than causation. Upped an ante to a level where investors are downright fearful not only for the well being of the market but also of themselves (civil war kind of scenario) then terrorism would quickly change columns into the causation department.
On the mild recovery of the KE economy in 2016, I disagree. KE has been on a slow but sure grind since 2014 and the worse our debt position becomes the more pronounced KE's problems will become. I am not well versed with TA and the accompanying double bottom calls but there has simply been no economic tail-wind to fan an NSE recovery.
Fact: The dot com crisis started in March 2000 and 911 happened in sept 2001. However that was not my point. When 911 happened the decisions that were made as a result have affected the US economy todate. There are papers written on how 911 has affected their economy as the debt levels rose significantly due to war. The government could not respond effectively to avert or reduce the effects of the 2008 crisis due to that fact.
In our case the 2013 westgate attack and the threats & false alarms that came thereafter brought real fear to the investors. Tourism was brought down to its knees and many would be investors shelved their plans on Kenya. The small terror attacks before 2013 were mostly out of nairobi and did not have much effect. My view is that the terror that was experienced in nairobi, real or imagined between 2013 and early 2015 affected the psyche of investors and resulted in causal (not correlation) adverse effect on the economy and the bear got legs at NSE.
True, the dotcom crash started earlier than 9/11 and crashed 777 points on the material day leading to closure of the market if I remember correctly. As for the US being handicapped by the war on terrorism in combating the vagaries of the 2008 GFC, that is a classic case of the culprit playing victim. 2016 was a relatively uneventful year for KE on the terrorism front yet the market it still dumped 1000 points - with the bulk of the losses coming in H2(post brexit). The losses were almost evenly split between the pre and post interest caps periods. Fast forward to post August, assuming a peaceful election and the market does not respond positively what will you attribute it to?
Safe for other factors coming to play.....I am very confident that if we go through elections successfully without chaos like 2007/8, the economy will look up and NSE bull will come to town. I am investing based on those premises. What do you expect to happen? I think the economy will continue to stall in 2017 and 2018 and that is assuming we get our act together on time, if not then the bear extends its rampage. The NSE trend has dovetailed with the economy and short of a decoupling event, that will remain so for the near-term. Maybe I am just a contrarian by discounting the impact of the election, but its twist and turns (whether peaceful or not) do not worry me...I expect the bear run to continue regardless. Working theory here being sub 2000. I have been a buyer and will continue doing so. My only limitation being availability of cash. The target/course of action remains the same; spot value and buy. Buying pegged on hopes of an immediate bull will leave many investors disillusioned. 2017 is the year of difficult Keynesian classical economics. Balancing between drought, dry river beds threatening hydro power generation, kplc and kengen counters in red, balancing between arap mashamba and the tortuous electioneering, mitigating stronger dollars and costly petrol. Even steel balls will fail on this one, better dump steel and get titanium balls to navigate the perilous curves ahead. A friend said to me, "Hey you need to grow a pair. Grow a pair, Bro." It's when someone calls you weak, but they associate it with a lack of testicles. Which is weird, because testicles are the most sensitive things in the world. If you suddenly just grew a pair, you'd be a lot more vulnerable. If you want to be tough, you should lose a pair. If you want to be real tough, you should grow a vagina. Those things can take a pounding ....Sheng Wang @Sparkly, wawawawah. Is it how much pounding you can take that counts or how pounding that you gave to break the bernacle that counts. Am lost of words. But either way its gonna be a sensitive year with sensitive affairs.   ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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sparkly wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Liv wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Liv wrote:lochaz-index wrote:
Yours is a most interesting perspective/view of the happenings in KE, I'll grant you that. For the record, 9/11 happened before the dotcom crash of 2001 not the 2008 GFC. However, the litmus test here is a cause and/or correlation analysis. Correlation is not causation. Some are purely happenstance and in some instances direct relationships flip back and forth into inverse ones. However, it is true that many factors feed the makings of a bull or bear run.
In the case of the US in 2001, I think 9/11 was the trigger(especially on the psychological construct of market participants - mainly retail) not the cause of the crash. Similarly KE has had a bad brush with terrorism since 2011 but the market still had a healthy run from 2012 to 2014 inspite of the bombings. I am not discounting the impact of terrorism but market psche was not fundamentally altered. In both cases, the scale of terrorism falls in the correlation department rather than causation. Upped an ante to a level where investors are downright fearful not only for the well being of the market but also of themselves (civil war kind of scenario) then terrorism would quickly change columns into the causation department.
On the mild recovery of the KE economy in 2016, I disagree. KE has been on a slow but sure grind since 2014 and the worse our debt position becomes the more pronounced KE's problems will become. I am not well versed with TA and the accompanying double bottom calls but there has simply been no economic tail-wind to fan an NSE recovery.
Fact: The dot com crisis started in March 2000 and 911 happened in sept 2001. However that was not my point. When 911 happened the decisions that were made as a result have affected the US economy todate. There are papers written on how 911 has affected their economy as the debt levels rose significantly due to war. The government could not respond effectively to avert or reduce the effects of the 2008 crisis due to that fact.
In our case the 2013 westgate attack and the threats & false alarms that came thereafter brought real fear to the investors. Tourism was brought down to its knees and many would be investors shelved their plans on Kenya. The small terror attacks before 2013 were mostly out of nairobi and did not have much effect. My view is that the terror that was experienced in nairobi, real or imagined between 2013 and early 2015 affected the psyche of investors and resulted in causal (not correlation) adverse effect on the economy and the bear got legs at NSE.
True, the dotcom crash started earlier than 9/11 and crashed 777 points on the material day leading to closure of the market if I remember correctly. As for the US being handicapped by the war on terrorism in combating the vagaries of the 2008 GFC, that is a classic case of the culprit playing victim. 2016 was a relatively uneventful year for KE on the terrorism front yet the market it still dumped 1000 points - with the bulk of the losses coming in H2(post brexit). The losses were almost evenly split between the pre and post interest caps periods. Fast forward to post August, assuming a peaceful election and the market does not respond positively what will you attribute it to?
Safe for other factors coming to play.....I am very confident that if we go through elections successfully without chaos like 2007/8, the economy will look up and NSE bull will come to town. I am investing based on those premises. What do you expect to happen? I think the economy will continue to stall in 2017 and 2018 and that is assuming we get our act together on time, if not then the bear extends its rampage. The NSE trend has dovetailed with the economy and short of a decoupling event, that will remain so for the near-term. Maybe I am just a contrarian by discounting the impact of the election, but its twist and turns (whether peaceful or not) do not worry me...I expect the bear run to continue regardless. Working theory here being sub 2000. I have been a buyer and will continue doing so. My only limitation being availability of cash. The target/course of action remains the same; spot value and buy. Buying pegged on hopes of an immediate bull will leave many investors disillusioned. 2017 is the year of difficult Keynesian classical economics. Balancing between drought, dry river beds threatening hydro power generation, kplc and kengen counters in red, balancing between arap mashamba and the tortuous electioneering, mitigating stronger dollars and costly petrol. Even steel balls will fail on this one, better dump steel and get titanium balls to navigate the perilous curves ahead. A friend said to me, "Hey you need to grow a pair. Grow a pair, Bro." It's when someone calls you weak, but they associate it with a lack of testicles. Which is weird, because testicles are the most sensitive things in the world. If you suddenly just grew a pair, you'd be a lot more vulnerable. If you want to be tough, you should lose a pair. If you want to be real tough, you should grow a vagina. Those things can take a pounding ....Sheng Wang When a fully bearded man with mustache divulges into vulgarity to pass a bitter point know that the bear still looms large.....You haven't yet seen volcanic eruption ... John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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18.20 was proved a resistance for Safaricom.. Bullish candlestick today for the bell weather.Waiting for tomorrow's opening,closing and days high to confirm trend.. Otherwise seems we floored for this cycle
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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NSE20 started the week above 2900 and at the rate of losses this week it likely to finish sub 2800 handle tomorrow. Closed at 2824 for the day - losing streaking continues at 11.36% in the red YTD. The trading pit this week would feel like this. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AFyeg6aANcc$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 5/21/2013 Posts: 72 Location: KENYA
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As we wait for those wings to wilt. “The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” - John Maynard Keynes
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Earnings season has kicked off with EABL's half year net profit down 28%. This one was grossly overvalued...waiting to see how much of a beat down is dished out by Mr Market. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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