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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Liv
#2401 Posted : Tuesday, January 17, 2017 9:07:17 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/14/2006
Posts: 1,311
Why is NSE index below 3000 and getting worse? Why is KES deteriorating?

My view; it can be challenged

All these are due to the uncertainty of the 2017 elections. Many of the foreigners and kenyans (read Asians) who are major investors in this country are taking cover. They have not only stopped investing but they are taking funds out of kenya until the elections take place and the country settles down politically.

If we manage to transit through this uncertainty safely in August and there are no chaos equivalent to or worse than 2007/2008, most of these funds will be returned here and I am sure the Index will hit 3500 or above by Dec 2017.

All the other factors like inflation, drought, debt levels, etc are just not as significant.

During the pre- election period the NSE provides great prices for great returns in 2018.
obiero
#2402 Posted : Wednesday, January 18, 2017 7:10:38 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,464
Location: nairobi
Liv wrote:
Why is NSE index below 3000 and getting worse? Why is KES deteriorating?

My view; it can be challenged

All these are due to the uncertainty of the 2017 elections. Many of the foreigners and kenyans (read Asians) who are major investors in this country are taking cover. They have not only stopped investing but they are taking funds out of kenya until the elections take place and the country settles down politically.

If we manage to transit through this uncertainty safely in August and there are no chaos equivalent to or worse than 2007/2008, most of these funds will be returned here and I am sure the Index will hit 3500 or above by Dec 2017.

All the other factors like inflation, drought, debt levels, etc are just not as significant.

During the pre- election period the NSE provides great prices for great returns in 2018.

It's the two men who are causing causing tension by changing laws allowing needless demos, keeping the job market fluid with strikes

HF 428,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
mlennyma
#2403 Posted : Wednesday, January 18, 2017 8:17:43 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,173
Location: nairobi
Liv wrote:
Why is NSE index below 3000 and getting worse? Why is KES deteriorating?

My view; it can be challenged

All these are due to the uncertainty of the 2017 elections. Many of the foreigners and kenyans (read Asians) who are major investors in this country are taking cover. They have not only stopped investing but they are taking funds out of kenya until the elections take place and the country settles down politically.

If we manage to transit through this uncertainty safely in August and there are no chaos equivalent to or worse than 2007/2008, most of these funds will be returned here and I am sure the Index will hit 3500 or above by Dec 2017.

All the other factors like inflation, drought, debt levels, etc are just not as significant.

During the pre- election period the NSE provides great prices for great returns in 2018.

unfortunately the market ties many investors capital due to depressed prices and selling becomes suicidal.many are just left to eat the discounts with their eyes
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Liv
#2404 Posted : Wednesday, January 18, 2017 8:58:48 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/14/2006
Posts: 1,311
obiero wrote:
Liv wrote:
Why is NSE index below 3000 and getting worse? Why is KES deteriorating?

My view; it can be challenged

All these are due to the uncertainty of the 2017 elections. Many of the foreigners and kenyans (read Asians) who are major investors in this country are taking cover. They have not only stopped investing but they are taking funds out of kenya until the elections take place and the country settles down politically.

If we manage to transit through this uncertainty safely in August and there are no chaos equivalent to or worse than 2007/2008, most of these funds will be returned here and I am sure the Index will hit 3500 or above by Dec 2017.

All the other factors like inflation, drought, debt levels, etc are just not as significant.

During the pre- election period the NSE provides great prices for great returns in 2018.

It's the two men who are causing causing tension by changing laws allowing needless demos, keeping the job market fluid with strikes



Unlike Kibaki the "dynamic duo" are politicians and not economists. So whereas they've failed to do some things well economically they have an advantage politically. Elections is a political event and I can assure you they will not allow Kenya to get back to the 2007/08 situation. That you can take to the world bank.
sparkly
#2405 Posted : Wednesday, January 18, 2017 8:58:54 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
mlennyma wrote:
Liv wrote:
Why is NSE index below 3000 and getting worse? Why is KES deteriorating?

My view; it can be challenged

All these are due to the uncertainty of the 2017 elections. Many of the foreigners and kenyans (read Asians) who are major investors in this country are taking cover. They have not only stopped investing but they are taking funds out of kenya until the elections take place and the country settles down politically.

If we manage to transit through this uncertainty safely in August and there are no chaos equivalent to or worse than 2007/2008, most of these funds will be returned here and I am sure the Index will hit 3500 or above by Dec 2017.

All the other factors like inflation, drought, debt levels, etc are just not as significant.

During the pre- election period the NSE provides great prices for great returns in 2018.

unfortunately the market ties many investors capital due to depressed prices and selling becomes suicidal.many are just left to eat the discounts with their eyes


Exactly. completely trapped by the bear. can't buy, can't sell
Life is short. Live passionately.
Angelica _ann
#2406 Posted : Wednesday, January 18, 2017 11:35:58 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,901
Liv wrote:
obiero wrote:
Liv wrote:
Why is NSE index below 3000 and getting worse? Why is KES deteriorating?

My view; it can be challenged

All these are due to the uncertainty of the 2017 elections. Many of the foreigners and kenyans (read Asians) who are major investors in this country are taking cover. They have not only stopped investing but they are taking funds out of kenya until the elections take place and the country settles down politically.

If we manage to transit through this uncertainty safely in August and there are no chaos equivalent to or worse than 2007/2008, most of these funds will be returned here and I am sure the Index will hit 3500 or above by Dec 2017.

All the other factors like inflation, drought, debt levels, etc are just not as significant.

During the pre- election period the NSE provides great prices for great returns in 2018.

It's the two men who are causing causing tension by changing laws allowing needless demos, keeping the job market fluid with strikes



Unlike Kibaki the "dynamic duo" are politicians and not economists. So whereas they've failed to do some things well economically they have an advantage politically. Elections is a political event and I can assure you they will not allow Kenya to get back to the 2007/08 situation. That you can take to the world bank.

Using dynamic to describe Jubilee is abuse to the two smile smile smile
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
muandiwambeu
#2407 Posted : Wednesday, January 18, 2017 2:05:07 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 1,247
Truly i say hii NSE cinema won't dissapoint its enthusiasts. All zeros are painted green and all dashes too. Somebody would easily pass it as very rosey performance by every trick on the book. Ukiona ppt washa inua kimono, now other more qeer and savagely methods haven't failed. Time to befearful%greedy.
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
kaimbaga2012
#2408 Posted : Wednesday, January 18, 2017 2:28:45 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 10/25/2011
Posts: 67
Angelica _ann wrote:
Liv wrote:
obiero wrote:
Liv wrote:
Why is NSE index below 3000 and getting worse? Why is KES deteriorating?

My view; it can be challenged

All these are due to the uncertainty of the 2017 elections. Many of the foreigners and kenyans (read Asians) who are major investors in this country are taking cover. They have not only stopped investing but they are taking funds out of kenya until the elections take place and the country settles down politically.

If we manage to transit through this uncertainty safely in August and there are no chaos equivalent to or worse than 2007/2008, most of these funds will be returned here and I am sure the Index will hit 3500 or above by Dec 2017.

All the other factors like inflation, drought, debt levels, etc are just not as significant.

During the pre- election period the NSE provides great prices for great returns in 2018.

It's the two men who are causing causing tension by changing laws allowing needless demos, keeping the job market fluid with strikes



Unlike Kibaki the "dynamic duo" are politicians and not economists. So whereas they've failed to do some things well economically they have an advantage politically. Elections is a political event and I can assure you they will not allow Kenya to get back to the 2007/08 situation. That you
can take to the world bank.


Using dynamic to describe Jubilee is abuse to the two smile smile smile



Kibaki is the one who came up with the phrase 'Dynamic duo' during the Hand over ceremony at Kasarani
muganda
#2409 Posted : Wednesday, January 18, 2017 3:41:41 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,901
Meanwhile, Nairobi Securities Exchange awarded worst performing market for 2017 thus far by Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.co...y-fall-further-ceo-says

Clearly, we have gladly handed our market to foreigners who remain bewildered with our fascination with politics.

aemathenge
#2410 Posted : Wednesday, January 18, 2017 4:12:47 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/18/2008
Posts: 3,434
Location: Kerugoya
Angelica _ann wrote:
Using dynamic to describe Jubilee is abuse to the two.

I beg to differ.

It is an abuse of the word.
mlennyma
#2411 Posted : Thursday, January 19, 2017 11:26:37 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,173
Location: nairobi
The worst performing market in the world, even than syria,the rate cap might have contributed more
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
mkate_nusu
#2412 Posted : Friday, January 20, 2017 10:49:21 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/30/2016
Posts: 332
Location: Kayole
mlennyma wrote:
The worst performing market in the world, even than syria,the rate cap might have contributed more

Those that heeded to mnandii's calling that cash is king and the index had to fall to 2000 points are safe smile
KEGN, KPLC, KQ, SCOM
hisah
#2413 Posted : Friday, January 20, 2017 12:12:33 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
SCBK!!! Looking like NBK when it was clutching at straws trying to float above the 15 handle. When that support caved in the fall was breathless!

Nasty nosedive ahead as per the monthly cartoon Pray Pray

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
aemathenge
#2414 Posted : Friday, January 20, 2017 12:39:14 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/18/2008
Posts: 3,434
Location: Kerugoya
I know I am good in English, but I need a translation for what Mr. Bodo is talking about in his article:

Link: Bottom of page one.

Quote:
I (George Bodo) have been constructing some paraphernalia — but within the technical analysis realm.

One of them which I’ve been trying to dry run is the advance-decline line.

It’s a simple tool for measuring market breadth and internal strength.

You always want to know whether a stock market rally is strong or just a short-lived passing cloud and vice versa.


Link: Page Two
Quote:
It can be defined as the cumulative sum of:

advancers (stocks closing a trading day on a positive note)

minus

decliners. (stocks closing the trading day on negative note).

On days when the number of advancers exceeds the number of decliners, the advance-decline line will rise.

And on days when decliners exceed advancers, the line will fall.

However, the importance of this indicator lies in spotting a divergence.

Ordinarily, the breadth line should replicate a stock market index to the extent that when an index is rising, the line also rises — and vice versa.

However, in a case where an index is rising while the line is falling, that’s called a negative divergence; and the rally is probably being fuelled by just a few big stocks.

When a stock index is touching new highs while the AD line is falling, that signals weak market internals and the rally is nearing an end.

I recently constructed an AD line for the NSE and put this hypothesis to test, with an interesting result.

Based on my readings, the market topped in February 2015.

But before that, it was preceded by two negative divergences, albeit minor. Since then, the market has been on a downdraft with both the NSE 20-share and All-Share indices losing 45 per cent and 30 per cent respectively, peak-to-trough.

Effectively, it means that if you had spotted those two negative divergences, you needed to have exited or at least reduced your exposures.
winston
#2415 Posted : Friday, January 20, 2017 5:22:10 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/14/2010
Posts: 806
Location: Nairobi
Interesting predictor!
obiero
#2416 Posted : Friday, January 20, 2017 5:48:25 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,464
Location: nairobi
mkate_nusu wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
The worst performing market in the world, even than syria,the rate cap might have contributed more

Those that heeded to mnandii's calling that cash is king and the index had to fall to 2000 points are safe smile

They are liquid now and need to know when to return.. The upswing is nigh

HF 428,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
obiero
#2417 Posted : Friday, January 20, 2017 5:51:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,464
Location: nairobi
sparkly wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Liv wrote:
Why is NSE index below 3000 and getting worse? Why is KES deteriorating?

My view; it can be challenged

All these are due to the uncertainty of the 2017 elections. Many of the foreigners and kenyans (read Asians) who are major investors in this country are taking cover. They have not only stopped investing but they are taking funds out of kenya until the elections take place and the country settles down politically.

If we manage to transit through this uncertainty safely in August and there are no chaos equivalent to or worse than 2007/2008, most of these funds will be returned here and I am sure the Index will hit 3500 or above by Dec 2017.

All the other factors like inflation, drought, debt levels, etc are just not as significant.

During the pre- election period the NSE provides great prices for great returns in 2018.

unfortunately the market ties many investors capital due to depressed prices and selling becomes suicidal.many are just left to eat the discounts with their eyes


Exactly. completely trapped by the bear. can't buy, can't sell

KCB trading at KES 25 is a travesty.. Check the volume action on financials. Not everyone is selling.. Even BBK this week traded over 5million shares

HF 428,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
mnandii
#2418 Posted : Tuesday, January 24, 2017 6:51:58 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
obiero wrote:
sparkly wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Liv wrote:
Why is NSE index below 3000 and getting worse? Why is KES deteriorating?

My view; it can be challenged

All these are due to the uncertainty of the 2017 elections. Many of the foreigners and kenyans (read Asians) who are major investors in this country are taking cover. They have not only stopped investing but they are taking funds out of kenya until the elections take place and the country settles down politically.

If we manage to transit through this uncertainty safely in August and there are no chaos equivalent to or worse than 2007/2008, most of these funds will be returned here and I am sure the Index will hit 3500 or above by Dec 2017.

All the other factors like inflation, drought, debt levels, etc are just not as significant.

During the pre- election period the NSE provides great prices for great returns in 2018.

unfortunately the market ties many investors capital due to depressed prices and selling becomes suicidal.many are just left to eat the discounts with their eyes


Exactly. completely trapped by the bear. can't buy, can't sell

KCB trading at KES 25 is a travesty.. Check the volume action on financials. Not everyone is selling.. Even BBK this week traded over 5million shares


We are in aMajor bear market which my analysis using the Elliott Wave model predicted. Check post no. 1. The bear still has a long way down to go. If you didn't sell back then prepare to cry in the toilet!
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#2419 Posted : Tuesday, January 24, 2017 6:53:40 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
"Honeymoon"? Sorry Dear, I'm Not in the Mood

Quote:
We're in uncharted territory. Donald Trump has defied political history at every turn. But, does history become irrelevant just because you're in uncharted territory? Water is still wet in uncharted territory, and if you cut yourself you'll probably still bleed.

A real honeymoon means a happy couple -- and Donald Trump hasn't done much to make his bride -- namely the public -- happy. She's being dragged along kicking and screaming...


link
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
hisah
#2420 Posted : Tuesday, January 24, 2017 4:02:29 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
mnandii wrote:
"Honeymoon"? Sorry Dear, I'm Not in the Mood

Quote:
We're in uncharted territory. Donald Trump has defied political history at every turn. But, does history become irrelevant just because you're in uncharted territory? Water is still wet in uncharted territory, and if you cut yourself you'll probably still bleed.

A real honeymoon means a happy couple -- and Donald Trump hasn't done much to make his bride -- namely the public -- happy. She's being dragged along kicking and screaming...


link

If Dow scales above 22000 by March the top will likely set in...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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