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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20

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lochaz-index		#2341 Posted : Thursday, January 12, 2017 5:51:33 PM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127		hisah wrote: Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote: hisah wrote: FTSE NSE KE 15 breaks below 150 handle with vigor Down 2.14% intraday. Despondency phase here we come. NSE20 will definitely close the day sub 3000 Still floating above. NSE20 down again 33 points to settle at 3014. Tomorrow just may be Still clutching at straws. Must defend 3000 come what may 3000 may not be breached right away. A short bounce/sideways action is in the works in the coming weeks. Absent of an outlier event happening between now and FY results, the 3000 mark may just hold. February looks like the perfect time to go sub 3000 convincingly. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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obiero		#2342 Posted : Thursday, January 12, 2017 5:54:23 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,213 Location: nairobi		lochaz-index wrote: Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote: hisah wrote: lochaz-index wrote: hisah wrote: Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote: Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote: Next support, 3070 low of December 2011,below that opens up to 2360, the March 2009 GFC lows. NSE 20 down 33 points today to close at 3083 With USD Bulls on the driver's seat, Safcom on a downward trend and credit growth at an all time low, NSE 20 would need divine intervention to stay above the 3,000 psychological level. The 3070 support level is now under serious threat! FTSE NSE KE 15 index is oversold on all time frames except the monthly gauge!!! Extremely bearish. Extreme sentiments usually warn of a sharp turn ahead. Intraday the index is down 1.24% and will likely close this way. NSE20 will likely close down 1% or more which means it will close below 3000 handle Are we already in sub-3000 territory? That would take the market 7 years back to 2009. The bounce from 3074 was a bit too steep to be sustainable. Some relief rallies before FY results maybe? NSE20 closes at 3047 breaking the 2011 low at 3070 made on Dec 6 2011. This index is also oversold on the daily, weekly and monthly gauges. Divergence noted on the RSI. The low points are not correlating with the RSI which is printing lower highs. Extreme sentiments zone as the bear extends into the third year with fat tails getting fatter. The ensuing rebound after this overfeeding spree by the bears is going to be awesome. But as usual many will miss this rebound before the extreme negative sentiments can be reset. Then the bull starts a climb of worry then comes the euphoria phase and bang down we go again as the cycle repeats. All this when the Dow is knocking the 20,000 door. We should bottom sometime this quarter.......not very long from now but sub 3,000 is sure to print by week close. Early next week should be considered a good time for partial entry. The amount of capital that has piled into US equities since the November election is on a crazy scale. It has outranked every single asset class/stock market by several multiples. This is happening before both the anticipated tax cuts come on board and the bond rout goes global. A bit surprised that European markets have managed to nearly/entirely erase their earlier 2016 losses considering everything that is going on in their backyard. EM/FM stock market and their respective currencies will have a defensive/nasty 2017 if funds are only itching to have a piece of the American pie via dollar hedging, bonds or stocks etc. Assessed independently, KE's affairs are shambolic and it will take time to undo. My estimate is at least one and a half years. Couple that with the fact that foreign participation @70/80% has been the life blood of the NSE for the last two years or so plus the global preference for dollar assets over a weak(er) KES by same investor class and you can see the difficulty in the market bottoming out so soon. Wanjiku activity has been low in the post GFC period and has declined further since the current bear run began. Cbk turned on the spigots in September and October 2016 for some reason which is still unclear. Banks' skeletons/underbelly will be exposed sooner rather than later, more so if most of them choose not to bite the bullet @FY2016 coz FY 2017 will be devastating if the same economic conditions persist or get worse. Something is rotten in that neck of the woods. Even Q1 2017 shall be robust for tier 1 banks.. Banking is alive and well. It's the small banks that are in shida KQ ABP 4.26
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Metasploit		#2343 Posted : Friday, January 13, 2017 10:00:57 AM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania		hisah wrote: Metasploit wrote: Supply needs to be absorbed..we still have some downside but hoping the oversold levels are reset the soonest...so the rate cap slide was just the beginning At least we have divergence on RSI and MACD Noted that on NASI, NSE20 and both FTSE NSE KE indices. Lower lows but higher lows on the TA indicator gauges. A bounce is coming. Siku njema huonekana asubuhi! There was supply of 25 for equity yesterday,HFCK had lots at 11.55-11.80 plus several other counters.. The bottom for this cycle looks like it will be today At least i picked some HFCK but got burned in SAF and EQUITY..The signs to sell were very clear three weeks ago SAF failed to break above KES 20 thrice,Equity was on a constricted bollinger between 30-30.5 with 30 (lower) being prominent The lessons one learns from trading in a bear are painful but valuable “The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Metasploit		#2344 Posted : Friday, January 13, 2017 10:03:07 AM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania		But still soon to make a move (those with cash)..watching the trend setter (Safaricom) “The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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maka		#2345 Posted : Friday, January 13, 2017 12:07:51 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi		NIC is taking a beating...wololo possunt quia posse videntur
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mlennyma		#2346 Posted : Friday, January 13, 2017 12:19:07 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,194 Location: nairobi		maka wrote: NIC is taking a beating...wololo like a burukenge!!we are past the meltdown infact my exhaust pipe is getting hot "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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muandiwambeu		#2347 Posted : Friday, January 13, 2017 12:30:35 PM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247		mlennyma wrote: maka wrote: NIC is taking a beating...wololo like a burukenge!!we are past the meltdown infact my exhaust pipe is getting hot Eti nini. Nikubaya. Afadhali Leo ni Friday. If we start Monday on this mood, hell it shall be. Safcom not done yet. That supply is torrent. ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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sparkly		#2348 Posted : Friday, January 13, 2017 1:41:53 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi		muandiwambeu wrote: mlennyma wrote: maka wrote: NIC is taking a beating...wololo like a burukenge!!we are past the meltdown infact my exhaust pipe is getting hot Eti nini. Nikubaya. Afadhali Leo ni Friday. If we start Monday on this mood, hell it shall be. Safcom not done yet. That supply is torrent. Lol just crazy. Smart money has resigned to the fact that we shall breach 3,000. Its a downfall!!! Life is short. Live passionately.
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Aguytrying		#2349 Posted : Friday, January 13, 2017 2:00:24 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040		sparkly wrote: muandiwambeu wrote: mlennyma wrote: maka wrote: NIC is taking a beating...wololo like a burukenge!!we are past the meltdown infact my exhaust pipe is getting hot Eti nini. Nikubaya. Afadhali Leo ni Friday. If we start Monday on this mood, hell it shall be. Safcom not done yet. That supply is torrent. Lol just crazy. Smart money has resigned to the fact that we shall breach 3,000. Its a downfall!!! This bear has been relentless. Remember the optimism we had at 5400. Now we're almost half that amount. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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sparkly		#2350 Posted : Friday, January 13, 2017 2:14:00 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi		Aguytrying wrote: sparkly wrote: muandiwambeu wrote: mlennyma wrote: maka wrote: NIC is taking a beating...wololo like a burukenge!!we are past the meltdown infact my exhaust pipe is getting hot Eti nini. Nikubaya. Afadhali Leo ni Friday. If we start Monday on this mood, hell it shall be. Safcom not done yet. That supply is torrent. Lol just crazy. Smart money has resigned to the fact that we shall breach 3,000. Its a downfall!!! This bear has been relentless. Remember the optimism we had at 5400. Now we're almost half that amount. The bear is brutal and merciless Life is short. Live passionately.
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