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KCB rights issue
Wa_ithaka
#41 Posted : Monday, May 10, 2010 10:24:16 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
KCB intends to raise Ksh21bn over the next few years.
Ksh15bn via issue of 1.1bn shares through the rights issue.
KSh6bn presumambly from the bond.
Based on the above, I'd say an entry price of Ksh12 is appropriate given that you won't get a return on the Ksh15bn for 3 years at least
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
PKoli
#42 Posted : Monday, May 10, 2010 10:39:16 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
@Waithaka

That is a massive share dilution especially given the fact that KCB has a very large free float of shares. I will have to do my math and exit. will wait for it to behave the safcom way during listing else I am sure the stock will trade in the current price of equity. No fundamental analysis, just looking at similar banks with similar number of shares and relative profitability being slightly similar. I guess it will trade at around 18 bob ex-dividend.

Happy hunting pals
mkonomtupu
#43 Posted : Tuesday, May 11, 2010 8:42:50 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
19.75 cum-div and still going south. If it settles around 18 bob ex-dividend the rights price will be 10 bob
I wonder what the Plan B is if the rights issue flops.
winston
#44 Posted : Tuesday, May 11, 2010 9:52:30 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/14/2010
Posts: 806
Location: Nairobi
When is the rights prospectus being released?
2012
#45 Posted : Tuesday, May 11, 2010 10:01:06 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
I'll wait for it at 11-12bob. As for CFC... damn!

BBI will solve it
:)
PKoli
#46 Posted : Tuesday, May 11, 2010 10:07:29 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
Not sure empty hand. May be KCB management will try to buy time and hope that the share will make some recovery..or try to make some strategic announcement..like Sudan branches performing well bla bla bla..
PKoli
#47 Posted : Tuesday, May 11, 2010 10:22:23 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
@2012.

At a price of 10-12 for KCB ex rights, I bet you will have to wait a little longer. It is not a bank on the brink of collapsing. I can see today, demand is coming in. we are seing a demand of 800,000 against supply of almost 2m. This is contrast to yesterday's demand of about 150,000 against a supply of almost 2m. I doubt the price will ebb below 18!

guru267
#48 Posted : Tuesday, May 11, 2010 2:54:52 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
2012 wrote:
I'll wait for it at 11-12bob.


@2012 i dont think this stock can go down that far otherwise it would be a serious market misjudgement...

right now this stock is being heavily sold mostly by fatigued retail investors who have no money or interest to take up their rights and are not ready to face dilution of their stock...

if it can go down to 18.5 i see tremendous medium term value even from a dividend point of view so i will get in at that level and average down my buy price with the rights issue...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
the deal
#49 Posted : Tuesday, May 11, 2010 3:45:14 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
definitely this counter is oversold...get in if u have money for the rights and if prepared to wait for another 2 years...lakini cfc even @ 54 is cheap...then theres NIC...EQUITY...I'm spoiled for choices...LOL.
PKoli
#50 Posted : Wednesday, May 12, 2010 8:41:21 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
For the doubting Thomases, today KCB demand and supply have almost evened out. Like I predicted yesterday the price is unlikely to go lower than 19. May be 21 would be a better price and after issuing of bonus it will drop to may be 18 and thereafter move to the 20s.
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