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Bear 2015 Wish List
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:Fyatu wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:FLAME TREE, time to buy is now  A question to @Aguy, @VVS and @Angelica_ann....why flame tree? What are you seeing that i am not seeing?  I see value. Not an easy path for FTGH to follow. Relatively low PER and high PB. I am waiting for 1H results. Odds of making a fortune by buying into newly listed micro Caps are firmly stacked against the minority shareholder. Speaking from experience in Access Kenya, Olympia, Eveready. @vvs i see you were bitten but not yet shy. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/30/2016 Posts: 217 Location: Talai
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Aguytrying wrote:The bear is upon us! Emotions play a significant role in choosing what to buy and at what price. We all know the temptation to bottom fish to get the lowest prices, but its difficult to achieve. Then there's the pain of being left by a share after a failed bottom fishing manoeuvre. In light of this I've come up with a systematic way of buying this time round. Using a P|E range of between 7-5.5 and EPS of 2014 or 2013 where necessary. Here is MY wishlist. There are many other good shares, ill be sticking with these for now. STOCK EPS TARGET PRICE PE 5.5-7
EQUITY 4.63 25-33
KCB 5.63 30-40
NIC 7.07 38-49
NSE 2.13 12-15
DTB 21.92 120-154
HFCK 2.75 15-20
JUBILEE 48 264-340
PAN AFRICA 6.05 33-43
SAFARICOM 0.8 8-10(10-12 PE)
NATION 13.1 72-100 (unlikely)
TPS SERENA 3.45 20-25 (2013 EPS)
BAMBURI 9.80 98-130
KENOL KOBIL 0.74 5-7 (6.7-9.5 PE)
EABL 11.31 113- 170(10-15 PE)
ARM 3.01 30-45
BAT 42.55 300-450
CROWN PAINTS 3.01 17-21
FLAME TREE 0.99 6-7
BOC 11.76 65-85  YOU WISH LIST IS SIMPLY SECOND TO NONE. ALMOST 100% ACHIEVED NA BADO!! PROPHET Aguytrying Na hii story  BADO! IT IS EXACTLY 1YEAR 21 DAYS.. WHEN YOU NAILED THIS! Watch and Listen and Live
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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ARAP CHARLES wrote:Aguytrying wrote:The bear is upon us! Emotions play a significant role in choosing what to buy and at what price. We all know the temptation to bottom fish to get the lowest prices, but its difficult to achieve. Then there's the pain of being left by a share after a failed bottom fishing manoeuvre. In light of this I've come up with a systematic way of buying this time round. Using a P|E range of between 7-5.5 and EPS of 2014 or 2013 where necessary. Here is MY wishlist. There are many other good shares, ill be sticking with these for now. STOCK EPS TARGET PRICE PE 5.5-7
EQUITY 4.63 25-33
KCB 5.63 30-40
NIC 7.07 38-49
NSE 2.13 12-15
DTB 21.92 120-154
HFCK 2.75 15-20
JUBILEE 48 264-340
PAN AFRICA 6.05 33-43
SAFARICOM 0.8 8-10(10-12 PE)
NATION 13.1 72-100 (unlikely)
TPS SERENA 3.45 20-25 (2013 EPS)
BAMBURI 9.80 98-130
KENOL KOBIL 0.74 5-7 (6.7-9.5 PE)
EABL 11.31 113- 170(10-15 PE)
ARM 3.01 30-45
BAT 42.55 300-450
CROWN PAINTS 3.01 17-21
FLAME TREE 0.99 6-7
BOC 11.76 65-85 YOU WISH LIST IS SIMPLY SECOND TO NONE. ALMOST 100% ACHIEVED NA BADO!! PROPHET Aguytrying Na hii story BADO! IT IS EXACTLY 1YEAR 21 DAYS.. WHEN YOU NAILED THIS! Thing is he will still not buy, but revise them downwards "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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murchr wrote:ARAP CHARLES wrote:Aguytrying wrote:The bear is upon us! Emotions play a significant role in choosing what to buy and at what price. We all know the temptation to bottom fish to get the lowest prices, but its difficult to achieve. Then there's the pain of being left by a share after a failed bottom fishing manoeuvre. In light of this I've come up with a systematic way of buying this time round. Using a P|E range of between 7-5.5 and EPS of 2014 or 2013 where necessary. Here is MY wishlist. There are many other good shares, ill be sticking with these for now. STOCK EPS TARGET PRICE PE 5.5-7
EQUITY 4.63 25-33
KCB 5.63 30-40
NIC 7.07 38-49
NSE 2.13 12-15
DTB 21.92 120-154
HFCK 2.75 15-20
JUBILEE 48 264-340
PAN AFRICA 6.05 33-43
SAFARICOM 0.8 8-10(10-12 PE)
NATION 13.1 72-100 (unlikely)
TPS SERENA 3.45 20-25 (2013 EPS)
BAMBURI 9.80 98-130
KENOL KOBIL 0.74 5-7 (6.7-9.5 PE)
EABL 11.31 113- 170(10-15 PE)
ARM 3.01 30-45
BAT 42.55 300-450
CROWN PAINTS 3.01 17-21
FLAME TREE 0.99 6-7
BOC 11.76 65-85 YOU WISH LIST IS SIMPLY SECOND TO NONE. ALMOST 100% ACHIEVED NA BADO!! PROPHET Aguytrying Na hii story BADO! IT IS EXACTLY 1YEAR 21 DAYS.. WHEN YOU NAILED THIS! Thing is he will still not buy, but revise them downwards Haha. Everything has changed with this interest rate cap. But for non financials it's game on. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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I think we need a new thread. "interest rate cap wishlist" 😁 lol The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/20/2011 Posts: 1,820 Location: Nakuru
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Aguytrying wrote:The bear is upon us! Emotions play a significant role in choosing what to buy and at what price. We all know the temptation to bottom fish to get the lowest prices, but its difficult to achieve. Then there's the pain of being left by a share after a failed bottom fishing manoeuvre. In light of this I've come up with a systematic way of buying this time round. Using a P|E range of between 7-5.5 and EPS of 2014 or 2013 where necessary. Here is MY wishlist. There are many other good shares, ill be sticking with these for now. STOCK EPS TARGET PRICE PE 5.5-7
EQUITY 4.63 25-33
KCB 5.63 30-40
NIC 7.07 38-49
NSE 2.13 12-15
DTB 21.92 120-154
HFCK 2.75 15-20
JUBILEE 48 264-340
PAN AFRICA 6.05 33-43
SAFARICOM 0.8 8-10(10-12 PE)
NATION 13.1 72-100 (unlikely)
TPS SERENA 3.45 20-25 (2013 EPS)
BAMBURI 9.80 98-130
KENOL KOBIL 0.74 5-7 (6.7-9.5 PE)
EABL 11.31 113- 170(10-15 PE)
ARM 3.01 30-45
BAT 42.55 300-450
CROWN PAINTS 3.01 17-21
FLAME TREE 0.99 6-7
BOC 11.76 65-85 Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Fyatu wrote:Aguytrying wrote:The bear is upon us! Emotions play a significant role in choosing what to buy and at what price. We all know the temptation to bottom fish to get the lowest prices, but its difficult to achieve. Then there's the pain of being left by a share after a failed bottom fishing manoeuvre. In light of this I've come up with a systematic way of buying this time round. Using a P|E range of between 7-5.5 and EPS of 2014 or 2013 where necessary. Here is MY wishlist. There are many other good shares, ill be sticking with these for now. STOCK EPS TARGET PRICE PE 5.5-7
EQUITY 4.63 25-33
KCB 5.63 30-40
NIC 7.07 38-49
NSE 2.13 12-15
DTB 21.92 120-154
HFCK 2.75 15-20
JUBILEE 48 264-340
PAN AFRICA 6.05 33-43
SAFARICOM 0.8 8-10(10-12 PE)
NATION 13.1 72-100 (unlikely)
TPS SERENA 3.45 20-25 (2013 EPS)
BAMBURI 9.80 98-130
KENOL KOBIL 0.74 5-7 (6.7-9.5 PE)
EABL 11.31 113- 170(10-15 PE)
ARM 3.01 30-45
BAT 42.55 300-450
CROWN PAINTS 3.01 17-21
FLAME TREE 0.99 6-7
BOC 11.76 65-85 Spoilt for choice now so many good stocks in range. Actively buying this whole year. Nation, is in range I didn't think that one would reach that price. Dtb thanks to rate cap The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Aguytrying wrote:Fyatu wrote:Aguytrying wrote:The bear is upon us! Emotions play a significant role in choosing what to buy and at what price. We all know the temptation to bottom fish to get the lowest prices, but its difficult to achieve. Then there's the pain of being left by a share after a failed bottom fishing manoeuvre. In light of this I've come up with a systematic way of buying this time round. Using a P|E range of between 7-5.5 and EPS of 2014 or 2013 where necessary. Here is MY wishlist. There are many other good shares, ill be sticking with these for now. STOCK EPS TARGET PRICE PE 5.5-7
EQUITY 4.63 25-33
KCB 5.63 30-40
NIC 7.07 38-49
NSE 2.13 12-15
DTB 21.92 120-154
HFCK 2.75 15-20
JUBILEE 48 264-340
PAN AFRICA 6.05 33-43
SAFARICOM 0.8 8-10(10-12 PE)
NATION 13.1 72-100 (unlikely)
TPS SERENA 3.45 20-25 (2013 EPS)
BAMBURI 9.80 98-130
KENOL KOBIL 0.74 5-7 (6.7-9.5 PE)
EABL 11.31 113- 170(10-15 PE)
ARM 3.01 30-45
BAT 42.55 300-450
CROWN PAINTS 3.01 17-21
FLAME TREE 0.99 6-7
BOC 11.76 65-85 Spoilt for choice now so many good stocks in range. Actively buying this whole year. Nation, is in range I didn't think that one would reach that price. Dtb thanks to rate cap Some of the prices are just too good to be true Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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sparkly wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Afroblk wrote:sparkly wrote:moneydust wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Afroblk wrote:I'm loving the bear...but it's not gonna last long...and so...one of my bond matured and here's how I'm re-investing the proceeds and take advantage of the bear starting tomorrow until I get all shares as planned, hopefully by 15 Oct. I'll be adding three new counters to my portfolio i.e. Centum, ARM and HFCK. I already have significant KQ and Britam but will be adding some more to average down.
Entry point (9/29/15-10/15/15)
KQ-18,000 @5.5
Britam-8,800 @17
HFCK-6,500 @23
ARM-6000 @42
Centum-5,700 @52
My target exit point is on or around 15 Sep 16 (1 yr from today) and targeting the following returns;
KQ-@9.00
Britam-@36
HFCK-@55
ARM-@92
Centum-@85
As you can see, if all plays and goes well of which I think most companies will do well 1&2 Qtrs then I'm looking at aprx 100% return in profits (Ksh0.9M) calculation based on ex div. I've factored in 100k in est broker fees.
I'll revisit this thread in Aug-Sep 2016 when I'm offloading.
Good Luck! I sincerely hope you have aligned your investment strategy to your risk appetite. Exit prices of Britam,HFCK,ARM and Centum appear grossly optimistic within a one year time frame and given the current market mood. Me thinks so too. We need at least 3 years before the current market mood returns. I finally managed to complete my buys for the year, now waiting for harvesting time! Good luck amigos!  Now as then, I think your newly acquired portfolio is going to get decimated. Notice the -% change in prices since the first time you posted your target entry prices. If you can take a hit/shaving-high risk appetite-of about 50%, then by all means carry on. However, if you are easily frazzled by losses reconsider...the next one year might be very nasty. A very aggressive portfolio IMO esp with shares that do not pay a dividend. Positive gains in Centum, HF, KK might be weighed down by ARM, KQ, Longhorn resulting in a Zero-sum gain. One year later, Mr. market says: KQ @6 Britam @10 HF @11 ARM @24 Centum @36 The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/20/2011 Posts: 1,820 Location: Nakuru
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STOCK EPS TARGET PRICE PE 5.5-7 MARCH 16 2017 prices
EQUITY 4.63 25-33 27.75
KCB 5.63 30-40 29.25
NIC 7.07 38-49 22.75
NSE 2.13 12-15 11.20
DTB 21.92 120-154 107
HFCK 2.75 15-20 11.40
JUBILEE 48 264-340 485
PAN AFRICA 6.05 33-43 27.75
SAFARICOM 0.8 8-10(10-12 PE) 17.55
NATION 13.1 72-100 (unlikely) 85
TPS SERENA 3.45 20-25 (2013 EPS)
BAMBURI 9.80 98-130 147
KENOL KOBIL 0.74 5-7 (6.7-9.5 PE) 12.85
EABL 11.31 113- 170(10-15 PE) 218
ARM 3.01 30-45 19.20
BAT 42.55 300-450 858.00
CROWN PAINTS 3.01 17-21 42.00
FLAME TREE 0.99 6-7 4.50
BOC 11.76 65-85 81.00
DEACONS 3.85 ............but money is scarce Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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